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You are ending friendships with people because they choose to continue living their lives despite the existence of a virus with a 1 in 200 death rate? Before C

You are ending friendships with people because they choose to continue living their lives despite the existence of a virus with a 1 in 200 death rate? Before COVID-19 was discovered, did you end friendships with people who drove cars?

cwhiz 6y ago
It’s probably waaaaaaaay lower than 1 in 200. Early 20s with no existing conditions is probably closer to 1 in 10,000 once all the asymptotic people are added to the denominator.
- umanwizard 6y ago
  Right, but they could pass it to other people, so the overall population death rate, about 1 in 200, is the relevant number. Still not enough to completely stop civilization over, IMO. Not to mention the fact that we don’t even really know whether the restrictions are actually stopping infections, or just delaying them by a few months.
  - cwhiz 6y ago
    If you are in a higher risk bracket you should take extra cautions. Not dissimilar at all to people who have nut allergies. Social distancing and shelter in place is the nuclear option when we didn’t know what we were dealing with.
- adventured 6y ago
  In the US the mortality rate is 1 in 1,000 for people that catch Covid and are 24 and under. Your 1 in 10k figure is probably in the right universe. I suspect it's 2x or 3x that however. I'd be surprised if the US hasn't had 20 or 30 million cases by now. This virus is more infectious than influenza and it has now had a lot of time to make its way through the population. If you throw in the no serious pre-existing conditions factor, it might be 1 in 100,000.
  - cwhiz 6y ago
    If we take the antibody test results at face value, NYC alone has already had 2+ million cases. The state of NY may have already had 8+ million. Even if there is a significant margin of error in those tests, and there may well be, the actual denominator is many times larger than the official numbers. I’d guess that the actual number is even higher than 20-30 million but that’s as reasonable a guess as any.
0xffff2 6y ago
None of my friends are that stupid, but I would if they were. There are good reasons to drive cars. More importantly, driving doesn't inherently carry a significant risk of spreading a highly contagious disease. The death rate right now isn't important. If everyone had the attitude that they were going to "continue living their lives", the death rate would be much different.
- matz1 6y ago
  Likewise, there are good reason for flying to visit relatives. Maybe not the reason that you like. Driving inheritely carry risk of accident. >If everyone had the attitude that they were going to "continue living their lives", the death rate would be much different What is the death rate in that case ?

cwhiz 6y ago

It’s probably waaaaaaaay lower than 1 in 200. Early 20s with no existing conditions is probably closer to 1 in 10,000 once all the asymptotic people are added to the denominator.

umanwizard 6y ago
Right, but they could pass it to other people, so the overall population death rate, about 1 in 200, is the relevant number. Still not enough to completely stop civilization over, IMO. Not to mention the fact that we don’t even really know whether the restrictions are actually stopping infections, or just delaying them by a few months.
- cwhiz 6y ago
  If you are in a higher risk bracket you should take extra cautions. Not dissimilar at all to people who have nut allergies. Social distancing and shelter in place is the nuclear option when we didn’t know what we were dealing with.
adventured 6y ago
In the US the mortality rate is 1 in 1,000 for people that catch Covid and are 24 and under. Your 1 in 10k figure is probably in the right universe. I suspect it's 2x or 3x that however. I'd be surprised if the US hasn't had 20 or 30 million cases by now. This virus is more infectious than influenza and it has now had a lot of time to make its way through the population. If you throw in the no serious pre-existing conditions factor, it might be 1 in 100,000.
- cwhiz 6y ago
  If we take the antibody test results at face value, NYC alone has already had 2+ million cases. The state of NY may have already had 8+ million. Even if there is a significant margin of error in those tests, and there may well be, the actual denominator is many times larger than the official numbers. I’d guess that the actual number is even higher than 20-30 million but that’s as reasonable a guess as any.

0xffff2 6y ago

None of my friends are that stupid, but I would if they were. There are good reasons to drive cars. More importantly, driving doesn't inherently carry a significant risk of spreading a highly contagious disease. The death rate right now isn't important. If everyone had the attitude that they were going to "continue living their lives", the death rate would be much different.

matz1 6y ago
Likewise, there are good reason for flying to visit relatives. Maybe not the reason that you like. Driving inheritely carry risk of accident. >If everyone had the attitude that they were going to "continue living their lives", the death rate would be much different What is the death rate in that case ?