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The article seems to completely forget about climate change. The current pandemic is going to look like a tiny speed bump in a few years when we start seeing re
by yogthos 6y ago
The article seems to completely forget about climate change. The current pandemic is going to look like a tiny speed bump in a few years when we start seeing regular deadly heat waves, crop failures, and other natural disasters. Billions of people are going to be displaced, and we'll see wars for the remaining livable land. The effects of climate change are all around us already, and they're happening much faster than any of the models predicted:
* new research indicates that parts of the Amazon and other tropical forests are now emitting more CO2 than they absorb https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-carbon-cycle-feedbacks-could-drive-temperatures-even-higher https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-carbon-cycle-feedbacks-co...
* one billion people will suffer from “unliveable” heat within 50 years, study finds https://e360.yale.edu/digest/one-billion-people-will-suffer-from-unliveable-heat-within-50-years-study-finds https://e360.yale.edu/digest/one-billion-people-will-suffer-...
* potentially fatal bouts of heat and humidity on the rise, study finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/08/climate-change-global-heating-extreme-heat-humidity https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/08/climate-...
* study finds ocean ecosystems likely to collapse in 2020s and land species in 2040s unless global warming stemmed https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/08/wildlife-destruction-not-a-slippery-slope-but-a-series-of-cliff-edges https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/08/wildlife...
* studies show drought and heat waves will cause massive die-offs, killing most trees alive today https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24042020/forest-trees-climate-change-deforestation https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24042020/forest-trees-cli...
* multiple overlapping crises could trigger 'Global Systemic Collapse' https://www.sciencealert.com/hundreds-of-top-scientists-warn-combined-environmental-crises-will-cause-global-collapse https://www.sciencealert.com/hundreds-of-top-scientists-warn...
* 246 academics call on government to act now to avoid global collapse https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/02/04/opinion/246-academics-call-government-act-now-avoid-global-collapse https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/02/04/opinion/246-acad...
* Planet's largest ecosystems collapse faster than previously forecast https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15029-x https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15029-x
World's oceans are also acidifying to a similar rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification#Rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification#Rate as the Permian extinction (but again in 100 years instead of 20k-60k), with an anoxic event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event#Consequences https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event#Consequences
locked in after 1,000ppm or 360 gigatons https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170920182116.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170920182116.h..., which we will reach by 2100 at the latest. So that's whatever's left wiped out.
And here's what's currently happening with food production. Two different groups of 200+ scientists and academics, separately from each other, each warned of near-term global collapse:
* https://www.sciencealert.com/hundreds-of-top-scientists-warn-combined-environmental-crises-will-cause-global-collapse https://www.sciencealert.com/hundreds-of-top-scientists-warn...
* https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/02/04/opinion/246-academics-call-government-act-now-avoid-global-collapse https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/02/04/opinion/246-acad...
Examples of record-breaking crop failures currently happening:
* https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/06/midwest-rain-climate-change-wrecking-corn-soy-crops/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/06/midwe...
* https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/extreme-heat-wave-hits-us-farmers-already-suffering-from-flooding.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/extreme-heat-wave-hits-us-fa...
* https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/15/australia-to-import-wheat-for-first-time-in-12-years-as-drought-eats-into-grain-production https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/15/austr...
* https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/20/crop-failure-and-bankruptcy-threaten-farmers-as-drought-grips-europe https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/20/crop-fai...
* https://www.zerohedge.com/health/historic-midwest-blizzard-has-farmers-seeing-massive-crop-lossesas-devastating-weve-ever https://www.zerohedge.com/health/historic-midwest-blizzard-h...
* https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/low-rice-crop-leads-to-sunrice-job-losses/11566748?pfmredir=sm https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/low-rice-crop-lead...
* https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/climate-change-could-cut-fruit-production-almost-third-study/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people...
* https://phys.org/news/2019-12-climate-whammy-corn-belt.html https://phys.org/news/2019-12-climate-whammy-corn-belt.html
* https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/12/britain-facing-potato-shortage-failure-dredge-rivers-led-flooding/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/12/britain-facing-p...
* https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2019-08-01-drought-dam-drive-mekong-river-to-lowest-level-in-100-years https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2019-08-01-drou...
* https://phys.org/news/2020-01-atlantic-circulation-collapse-british-crop.html https://phys.org/news/2020-01-atlantic-circulation-collapse-...
* https://phys.org/news/2019-12-climate-threat-global-breadbaskets.html https://phys.org/news/2019-12-climate-threat-global-breadbas...
* https://phys.org/news/2019-12-large-atmospheric-jet-stream-global.html https://phys.org/news/2019-12-large-atmospheric-jet-stream-g...
Scientific studies projecting future crop failures:
* Schlenker and Roberts, 2009. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change. PNAS, 106(37), pp.15594-15598 https://www.pnas.org/content/106/37/15594.full https://www.pnas.org/content/106/37/15594.full
* Mora et al, 2015. Suitable days for plant growth disappear under projected climate change: Potential human and biotic vulnerability. PLoS bio, 13(6), p.e1002167 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002167 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
* Schauberger et al, 2017. Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nature Comms, 8, p.13931. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13931 https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13931
* Sakschewski et al, 2014. Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems?. Ecological modelling, 288, pp.103-111 https://booksc.xyz/book/30274837/03002c https://booksc.xyz/book/30274837/03002c
* Liang et al, 2017. Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity. PNAS, 114(12), pp.E2285-E2292 https://www.pnas.org/content/114/12/E2285?collection= https://www.pnas.org/content/114/12/E2285?collection=
News articles about projected crop failures:
* UN says passing 2C will have a 'very high projected risk' of global food supply instabilities https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/news/climate-change-could-trigger-global-food-crisis-new-u-n-ncna1040236 https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/news/climate-change-could-trigg...
* UN says passing 2C would cause 'multi-breadbasket failure' https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/climate/climate-change-food-supply.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/climate/climate-change-fo...)
* UN says passing 2C would cause 60% of global wheat to be subjected to 'Severe Water Scarcity (SVS)' drought events https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/26/new-research-warns-severe-climate-related-droughts-could-threaten-60-global-wheat https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/26/new-research-wa...
Given that our response to the pandemic has been to largely ignore the science and try to get back to business as usual and we're still largely pretending that climate change isn't happening, I don't really have much hope for continued existence of human civilization.
- oneiftwo 6y agoHow anyone can continue to place so much faith into dogmatic science, after the global and nearly universal failure of these same institutions to properly prepare for and handle covid, is beyond me. This post is pure fear porn. Environmentalists have been making these same doomsday predictions since literally the 60s and deadlines continue to come and go without incident. Look, the papers that predict what's more likely to happen aren't sexy, so they don't get read much if they're published at all. The truth is that based on all of our evidence regarding the speed of climate change in the past, if there's any change from human emissions it will be slow and take on the order of 100+ years, during which time the only measurable indicator will be an increased rate of turnover and spending for infrastructure projects, maybe a slight uptick in immigration, as we have a bigger storm or a bigger flood here and there. That doesn't even mention the potential benefits to climate change - there's nothing that says that the earth won't potentially have more fertile land area if the permafrost thaws, for example. But such an attitude is clearly not popular among alarmists.
- Intermernet 6y agoI had to post this link exactly 7 days ago. Is there some misinformation currently being pushed in the climate change denialist bubble recently that accounts for the sudden questioning of the validity of historical modelling? https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-mo...
- yogthos 6y agoThe scientists did not fail to prepare for the pandemic, and the countries that had scientists in the driving seat handled the pandemic very well. For example, Vietnam currently has no deaths from covid-19 precisely because scientists were in charge. Meanwhile, countries like US, who dismissed the scientists have the highest death toll in the world. Climate change denialists don't seem to grasp the concept of basic risk assessment. We don't know exactly what will happen, however we definitely know what could potentially happen. Claiming that just because the scientists might be wrong there's nothing to worry about is the height of insanity. You're essentially advocating for playing Russian roulette with our biosphere. People who actually study the climate are the ones who have the best idea of what will happen. Period. These people are unanimously telling the rest of us that all the best available evidence suggests that horrific things will happen. And now we're seeing these things starting to happen, and we're seeing them happen at a faster rate than was expected. Yet, idiots who have absolutely zero understanding of this domain continue to insist that there's nothing to worry about because they read something on Facebook that one time.