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Russia took crimea without any issue. Do you really think anything will happen if china took taiwan by force? It's a matter of time before china takes taiwan.

by type-2 6y ago

evgen 6y ago
As much as I like the Ukrainian people, no one cared about Crimea because it was of absolutely no strategic importance to anyone but Russia. Taiwan is critically important to the US. The US _will_ go to war to defend it, and China knows this.
- nabla9 6y ago
  The whole point of US Taiwan policy and the wording of US-Taiwan Relations Act is to make it sure that the US can refuse to war against China if it attacks Taiwan. US has treaties with South Korea and Japan that make it it clear that the US will defend them if they are under attack. The Taiwan treaty is worded in a way that US may provide assistance or limited support in a war.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    > US has treaties with South Korea and Japan that make it it clear that the US will defend them if they are under attack. A quadrilateral nuclear disarmament treaty with Ukraine the US has signed has even more explicit wording, yet...
    - nabla9 6y ago
      The explicit wording states that in case violent action they would seek immediate Security Council action. That is toothless assurance when Russia is permanent member of security council.
- Shivetya 6y ago
  Just a change in who is President is all that China is waiting for.
  - catalogia 6y ago
    Do you mean they're waiting for Biden, or just some hypothetical future president?
  - boomboomsubban 6y ago
    They've waited seventy years for the right president. How many more decades will they wait and how will they react when they discover the military can probably force any president's hand?
    - 101404 6y ago
      No, they didn't wait for the right president. The past 40 years, they developed economically and technologically. It is only since Xi became president, that China feels confident to have a more assertive foreign policy.
      - boomboomsubban 6y ago
        >It is only since Xi became president, that China feels confident to have a more assertive foreign policy. How so? There hasn't been a sharp rise in military spending, they haven't invaded anywhere, and they've largely maintained their same course on most of the disputed territories.
        mensetmanusman 6y ago
        South China Sea
        boomboomsubban 6y ago
        The border conflict ongoing for their entire existence? Technology has advanced some of the methods, but not drastically different.
        mensetmanusman 6y ago
audunw 6y ago
Another aspect of Russia taking crimea is that the people living there to a large extent welcomed it. There are some that are pro-unification in Taiwan, but it's a minority. Most people are pro status quo, and the number that are for declaring independence is growing. The ruling party is very pro-independence (ideologically speaking, in practice they have to move slowly and maintain status quo to some degree), meaning releasing their claim over mainland China, changing name from "Republic of China" or "China" to Taiwan, seeking UN membership etc. The other big difference is that Taiwan is quite capable of defending itself to some extent. China will win eventually, but not without devastating the island. This will affect everyone economically. China and the world. If TSMCs factories in Taiwan are destroyed, it'd have an enormous impact on world economy. The production of high-tech electronics would be stunted for years. Russia annexing crimea had absolutely no practical effect on the world. The fact is that everyone, China included, is relatively happy with the status quo. The CCP has to make a scene now and then to appease the fragile ego of a large portion of the mainland chinese. But I really don't think they actually care that much about invading Taiwan.
- baybal2 6y ago
  > Another aspect of Russia taking crimea is that the people living there to a large extent welcomed it. Man, are saying this in your right mind? Where do you read this stuff? People there abandoned their property, and ran! This is what they did. Nobody openly welcomed it in their sane minds, besides few thousands elderly ex-party members, and alt-right weirdos. The fact that I hear sentiments like this in the West is the direct proof that Russian psyops truly work.
  - typ 6y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Politics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Politics Not sure how accurate it is though.
  - pauljurczak 6y ago
    Do you mean Russian ethnic majority inhabiting the Crimea for over a century now, abandoned their property, and ran?
bsd44 6y ago
England stole Las Malvinas in 1982 from Argentina and nobody gave a damn. Funny how things work when it's "you" and not "them".
- HideousKojima 6y ago
  99% of Falkland Islanders support British rule (and this had 92% turnout of registered voters): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-falklands-referendum/falkland-islanders-vote-overwhelmingly-to-keep-british-rule-idUSBRE92B02T20130312 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-falklands-referendum/falk... Not being tied to the economic basketcase of Argentina is a good thing, it seems. It's kind of like how Spain will occasionally bluster about Gibraltar, despite the overwhelming majority of Gibraltar supporting British rule.
  - jotm 6y ago
    It's just so fascinating how this is accepted as truth, yet Crimea having a pro-Russian majority is touted as absolute bollocks, propaganda, brainwashed people. Pretty much the same situation, completely different reaction from the same people. I believe both of these to be correct (Falklands pro-UK, Crimea pro-Russian), fwiw.
  - dieortin 6y ago
    > It’s kind of like how Spain will occasionally bluster about Gibraltar, despite the overwhelming majority of Gibraltar supporting British rule Well, I guess that’s what happens when you replace the population of Gibraltar by British settlers. They will probably be pretty happy to be under British rule. Are you going to apply this logic to the areas colonized by Israel too?
jacobush 6y ago
But Ukraine had a very bad strategic position and outdated military. Taiwan is an island well prepared. Taking it is possible but very costly. Nuking it into oblivion is always an option but the optics of that kind of liberation is bad.
tathougies 6y ago
Yes. Given the current administration of the United States and the previous one, yes. I'm not trying to be political, I'm just stating what I think is going to happen if that were to be the case. As it is, the US is the main one antagonizing China after their ridiculous South CHina Sea claims. Moreover, the US is closer to Asia than Ukraine. I mean that honestly. The West Coast -- and the greater US in general -- has a lot of Taiwanese and Asians who would be upset if China took over Taiwan. Much more Asians than Russians or Ukrainians. It doesn't hit as close to home frankly.
MR4D 6y ago
China is working on taking Hong Kong first, before moving onto Taiwan. I give it between 1-5 years before they move in some way on Taiwan. One thing I would not bet on is a direct military incursion - that would cause too many foreign headaches. Something messy that's hard to pull apart is better. The current events with social unrest in HK are a good example of creating ambiguity. The one interesting thing to me is that China normally has a very long time horizon, but now they don't. Trump has effectively made sure that Cold War 2.0 has started, and China is the enemy. The problem for the Chinese in this situation is that a substantial amount of manufacturing will move out of China, weakening their economy. And a weak economy is usually not a good thing for leadership.
- magicsmoke 6y ago
  There's a pretty interesting part about how Chinese media describes the causes of the unrest in Hong Kong that gives a window into how they think about the world and human nature. That is, the point about how Hong Kong's unrest is due to its education system that gets raised. Right now, 1 country 2 systems means that PRC can't just dismantle HK's education system and institute their own until 2047. But the comments HK's education system indicate that the PRC thinks if they could just put HK's children through a state-approved education system, in 1-2 generations all the unrest in HK would be over. This is a worldview that people are ultimately malleable, or at least their children are, and that with the right childhood education you can get people to believe anything. Brainwashing, after all, is originally a word from Chinese that became an English loanword. In this worldview, everyone who's gone through schooling is brainwashed in some way to support the state that created the education system. And this worldview applies to any state-sponsored education system in the world. Take a Chinese immigrant family in America, put their 2nd gen kids through the American education system, by the 3rd gen you have Americans that can't imagine themselves as anything other than Americans. This worldview that people can be molded is probably why China is in no rush to exercise full control over HK and Taiwan. After all, if people's national identities are so easily changed, any discontent in HK and Taiwan today can be brainwashed away in few generations. It's far more important to focus on the physical and economic levers that would allow China to exercise long-term control over those regions than social levers that determine whether people in those regions actually like the prospect. If they don't like it, their children will.
tw04 6y ago
>Russia took crimea without any issue. You mean other than the crippling sanctions that were actually working until Trump took office? I think you fail to realize how close Putin was to the precipice on that one - when the oligarchs lose faith, it's tough to keep your hold on power.
blaser-waffle 6y ago
No nuclear powers are backing the Ukraine or Crimea. The US is explicitly backing Taiwan. When the CCP started conducting "exercises" near Taiwan during the Clinton era, the US sent 3 carriers to conduct "exercises" nearby. And, as others have pointed out, they weren't trying to conquer all of Ukraine, just the parts with a "warm" water port, which also happened to have a lot of ethnic Russians. Limited scope, for a tactical gain (a seaport). The CCP, however, is trying to take all of Taiwan, and enforce their will on people who absolutely do not want it. With a Nuclear India next door (and Nuclear Pakistan next to them), plus Japan, Vietnam, and a host of other countries that have a reason to be weary of China, it's a risky gambit. It is a good way to kickoff WWIII, for an island that is already, effectively, in the Chinese cultural and economic sphere.

Russia took crimea without any issue. Do you really think anything will happen if china took taiwan by force? It's a matter of time before china takes taiwan.

by type-2 6y ago

Russia took crimea without any issue. Do you really think anything will happen if china took taiwan by force? It's a matter of time before china takes taiwan.

evgen 6y ago

As much as I like the Ukrainian people, no one cared about Crimea because it was of absolutely no strategic importance to anyone but Russia. Taiwan is critically important to the US. The US _will_ go to war to defend it, and China knows this.

nabla9 6y ago
The whole point of US Taiwan policy and the wording of US-Taiwan Relations Act is to make it sure that the US can refuse to war against China if it attacks Taiwan. US has treaties with South Korea and Japan that make it it clear that the US will defend them if they are under attack. The Taiwan treaty is worded in a way that US may provide assistance or limited support in a war.
- baybal2 6y ago
  > US has treaties with South Korea and Japan that make it it clear that the US will defend them if they are under attack. A quadrilateral nuclear disarmament treaty with Ukraine the US has signed has even more explicit wording, yet...
  - nabla9 6y ago
    The explicit wording states that in case violent action they would seek immediate Security Council action. That is toothless assurance when Russia is permanent member of security council.
Shivetya 6y ago
Just a change in who is President is all that China is waiting for.
- catalogia 6y ago
  Do you mean they're waiting for Biden, or just some hypothetical future president?
- boomboomsubban 6y ago
  They've waited seventy years for the right president. How many more decades will they wait and how will they react when they discover the military can probably force any president's hand?
  - 101404 6y ago
    No, they didn't wait for the right president. The past 40 years, they developed economically and technologically. It is only since Xi became president, that China feels confident to have a more assertive foreign policy.
    - boomboomsubban 6y ago
      >It is only since Xi became president, that China feels confident to have a more assertive foreign policy. How so? There hasn't been a sharp rise in military spending, they haven't invaded anywhere, and they've largely maintained their same course on most of the disputed territories.
      - mensetmanusman 6y ago
        South China Sea
        boomboomsubban 6y ago
        The border conflict ongoing for their entire existence? Technology has advanced some of the methods, but not drastically different.
        mensetmanusman 6y ago

audunw 6y ago

Another aspect of Russia taking crimea is that the people living there to a large extent welcomed it. There are some that are pro-unification in Taiwan, but it's a minority. Most people are pro status quo, and the number that are for declaring independence is growing. The ruling party is very pro-independence (ideologically speaking, in practice they have to move slowly and maintain status quo to some degree), meaning releasing their claim over mainland China, changing name from "Republic of China" or "China" to Taiwan, seeking UN membership etc. The other big difference is that Taiwan is quite capable of defending itself to some extent. China will win eventually, but not without devastating the island. This will affect everyone economically. China and the world. If TSMCs factories in Taiwan are destroyed, it'd have an enormous impact on world economy. The production of high-tech electronics would be stunted for years. Russia annexing crimea had absolutely no practical effect on the world. The fact is that everyone, China included, is relatively happy with the status quo. The CCP has to make a scene now and then to appease the fragile ego of a large portion of the mainland chinese. But I really don't think they actually care that much about invading Taiwan.

baybal2 6y ago
> Another aspect of Russia taking crimea is that the people living there to a large extent welcomed it. Man, are saying this in your right mind? Where do you read this stuff? People there abandoned their property, and ran! This is what they did. Nobody openly welcomed it in their sane minds, besides few thousands elderly ex-party members, and alt-right weirdos. The fact that I hear sentiments like this in the West is the direct proof that Russian psyops truly work.
- typ 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Politics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Politics Not sure how accurate it is though.
- pauljurczak 6y ago
  Do you mean Russian ethnic majority inhabiting the Crimea for over a century now, abandoned their property, and ran?

bsd44 6y ago

England stole Las Malvinas in 1982 from Argentina and nobody gave a damn. Funny how things work when it's "you" and not "them".

HideousKojima 6y ago
99% of Falkland Islanders support British rule (and this had 92% turnout of registered voters): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-falklands-referendum/falkland-islanders-vote-overwhelmingly-to-keep-british-rule-idUSBRE92B02T20130312 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-falklands-referendum/falk... Not being tied to the economic basketcase of Argentina is a good thing, it seems. It's kind of like how Spain will occasionally bluster about Gibraltar, despite the overwhelming majority of Gibraltar supporting British rule.
- jotm 6y ago
  It's just so fascinating how this is accepted as truth, yet Crimea having a pro-Russian majority is touted as absolute bollocks, propaganda, brainwashed people. Pretty much the same situation, completely different reaction from the same people. I believe both of these to be correct (Falklands pro-UK, Crimea pro-Russian), fwiw.
- dieortin 6y ago
  > It’s kind of like how Spain will occasionally bluster about Gibraltar, despite the overwhelming majority of Gibraltar supporting British rule Well, I guess that’s what happens when you replace the population of Gibraltar by British settlers. They will probably be pretty happy to be under British rule. Are you going to apply this logic to the areas colonized by Israel too?

jacobush 6y ago

But Ukraine had a very bad strategic position and outdated military. Taiwan is an island well prepared. Taking it is possible but very costly. Nuking it into oblivion is always an option but the optics of that kind of liberation is bad.

tathougies 6y ago

Yes. Given the current administration of the United States and the previous one, yes. I'm not trying to be political, I'm just stating what I think is going to happen if that were to be the case. As it is, the US is the main one antagonizing China after their ridiculous South CHina Sea claims. Moreover, the US is closer to Asia than Ukraine. I mean that honestly. The West Coast -- and the greater US in general -- has a lot of Taiwanese and Asians who would be upset if China took over Taiwan. Much more Asians than Russians or Ukrainians. It doesn't hit as close to home frankly.

MR4D 6y ago

China is working on taking Hong Kong first, before moving onto Taiwan. I give it between 1-5 years before they move in some way on Taiwan. One thing I would not bet on is a direct military incursion - that would cause too many foreign headaches. Something messy that's hard to pull apart is better. The current events with social unrest in HK are a good example of creating ambiguity. The one interesting thing to me is that China normally has a very long time horizon, but now they don't. Trump has effectively made sure that Cold War 2.0 has started, and China is the enemy. The problem for the Chinese in this situation is that a substantial amount of manufacturing will move out of China, weakening their economy. And a weak economy is usually not a good thing for leadership.

magicsmoke 6y ago
There's a pretty interesting part about how Chinese media describes the causes of the unrest in Hong Kong that gives a window into how they think about the world and human nature. That is, the point about how Hong Kong's unrest is due to its education system that gets raised. Right now, 1 country 2 systems means that PRC can't just dismantle HK's education system and institute their own until 2047. But the comments HK's education system indicate that the PRC thinks if they could just put HK's children through a state-approved education system, in 1-2 generations all the unrest in HK would be over. This is a worldview that people are ultimately malleable, or at least their children are, and that with the right childhood education you can get people to believe anything. Brainwashing, after all, is originally a word from Chinese that became an English loanword. In this worldview, everyone who's gone through schooling is brainwashed in some way to support the state that created the education system. And this worldview applies to any state-sponsored education system in the world. Take a Chinese immigrant family in America, put their 2nd gen kids through the American education system, by the 3rd gen you have Americans that can't imagine themselves as anything other than Americans. This worldview that people can be molded is probably why China is in no rush to exercise full control over HK and Taiwan. After all, if people's national identities are so easily changed, any discontent in HK and Taiwan today can be brainwashed away in few generations. It's far more important to focus on the physical and economic levers that would allow China to exercise long-term control over those regions than social levers that determine whether people in those regions actually like the prospect. If they don't like it, their children will.

tw04 6y ago

>Russia took crimea without any issue. You mean other than the crippling sanctions that were actually working until Trump took office? I think you fail to realize how close Putin was to the precipice on that one - when the oligarchs lose faith, it's tough to keep your hold on power.

blaser-waffle 6y ago

No nuclear powers are backing the Ukraine or Crimea. The US is explicitly backing Taiwan. When the CCP started conducting "exercises" near Taiwan during the Clinton era, the US sent 3 carriers to conduct "exercises" nearby. And, as others have pointed out, they weren't trying to conquer all of Ukraine, just the parts with a "warm" water port, which also happened to have a lot of ethnic Russians. Limited scope, for a tactical gain (a seaport). The CCP, however, is trying to take all of Taiwan, and enforce their will on people who absolutely do not want it. With a Nuclear India next door (and Nuclear Pakistan next to them), plus Japan, Vietnam, and a host of other countries that have a reason to be weary of China, it's a risky gambit. It is a good way to kickoff WWIII, for an island that is already, effectively, in the Chinese cultural and economic sphere.