9 ms·

> Never mind the civil unrest, the entire world would bail out of China. That is not clear.. at all. Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand -- the non-US weste

> Never mind the civil unrest, the entire world would bail out of China. That is not clear.. at all. Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand -- the non-US western allies -- have all known exactly what China's end goal is and have down jack diddly squat to put pressure on them. The only thing preventing China from taking out Taiwan is the United States. Europe and the rest of the world is too cowardly to even do anything, which is really unfortunate.

cm2187 6y ago
You are being downvoted but what happened with Crimea proves your point.
- londons_explore 6y ago
  True, although Crimea was pretty much testcase-scale - not many people live there, and its economic value is pretty low. Taiwan is much much more populous, and has a much higher economic value.
  - avhception 6y ago
    Crimea has strategic value for the military though, the port of Sevastopol houses the Russian Black Sea fleet.
- pmachinery 6y ago
  What did the US do to prevent Russia "taking out" Crimea that the cowardly rest of the world didn't?
  - cm2187 6y ago
    I am not saying it is obvious that the US would confront China militarily if it was to invade Taiwan. But Europe did let a friendly country at its immediate border get invaded and didn’t even stop buying the main resource the invader relies on (oil and gas). Let alone have any military involvement.
    - mschuster91 6y ago
      > and didn’t even stop buying the main resource the invader relies on (oil and gas) The problem is that Europe depends on (cheap) Russian gas for heating.
      - cm2187 6y ago
        Right. And we are realising now how dependant we are on the Chinese supply chain.
    - hrktb 6y ago
      The US didn't stop trading with Saudi Arabia even after proven involvement in 9/11/2001. It's all mildly complicated.
    - sergeykish 6y ago
      > The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States.... included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
  - michaelt 6y ago
    Nothing - but Crimea is right on the EU's doorstep. Both Ukraine and Russia share borders with EU member states. If we EU member states didn't get involved when we saw a fight right in front of us, the threat of us getting involved in a fight thousands of miles away isn't very credible as a deterrent. More broadly, when I look at Taiwan I don't see the EU or US recognising Taiwan as a nation - let alone any tripwire forces or foreign airbases or nuclear sharing or NATO membership or joint training exercises which signal the fully fledged protection of a great power.
    - pmachinery 6y ago
      > Nothing - but Crimea is right on the EU's doorstep. So it's no further from US bases than EU bases. > Both Ukraine and Russia share borders with EU member states. And Russia is a two mile walkable ice bridge from the US in winter. > If we EU member states didn't get involved when we saw a fight right in front of us, the threat of us getting involved in a fight thousands of miles away isn't very credible as a deterrent. Distance isn't the issue. EU countries/NATO will bomb any puny country armed with obsolete weapons, wherever it is. What the US and EU will never do is get into a fight with a nuclear armed superpower.
      - viro 6y ago
        umm Russia isn't a super power. But the US and EU will avoid directly fighting any nuclear armed country... Well yea duh, the nuke doesn't need to hit us to kill the planet.
    - qbaqbaqba 6y ago
      Germany is more than happy to trade with Russia breaking sanctions https://www.dw.com/en/siemens-to-hike-russia-investment-despite-crimea-scandal/a-47548791 https://www.dw.com/en/siemens-to-hike-russia-investment-desp... Not to mention NordStreamII
ChuckNorris89 6y ago
It's definitely true for Europe being absolutely spineless when push comes to shove. The EU couldn't even put pressure on Erdogan let alone on Xi. China has been buying influence here for years, especially through the poorer countries that were alienated by the strict austerity measures imposed by the bigger powers. The nature of the EU politics where a single country has the power to veto the rest is a massive loophole that China is happily exploiting. The fact that every EU country has different interests and agendas is a huge problem that results to the union never aligning on anything critical. Just look how the refugee crisis was handled. Affected countries were crying for help and the others were like "sucks for you bro".
- qbaqbaqba 6y ago
  > through the poorer countries and German universities: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/china-influence-scandal-rocks-berlin-university https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/china-influence-sc...
- posix_me_less 6y ago
  Is that being spineless or unorganized and powerless?
  - jdhn 6y ago
    Why not both?
  - s_y_n_t_a_x 6y ago
    They're unorganized and powerless because they are spineless.
type-2 6y ago
Russia took crimea without any issue. Do you really think anything will happen if china took taiwan by force? It's a matter of time before china takes taiwan.
- evgen 6y ago
  As much as I like the Ukrainian people, no one cared about Crimea because it was of absolutely no strategic importance to anyone but Russia. Taiwan is critically important to the US. The US _will_ go to war to defend it, and China knows this.
  - nabla9 6y ago
    The whole point of US Taiwan policy and the wording of US-Taiwan Relations Act is to make it sure that the US can refuse to war against China if it attacks Taiwan. US has treaties with South Korea and Japan that make it it clear that the US will defend them if they are under attack. The Taiwan treaty is worded in a way that US may provide assistance or limited support in a war.
    - baybal2 6y ago
      > US has treaties with South Korea and Japan that make it it clear that the US will defend them if they are under attack. A quadrilateral nuclear disarmament treaty with Ukraine the US has signed has even more explicit wording, yet...
      - nabla9 6y ago
        The explicit wording states that in case violent action they would seek immediate Security Council action. That is toothless assurance when Russia is permanent member of security council.
  - Shivetya 6y ago
    Just a change in who is President is all that China is waiting for.
Keyframe 6y ago
Sad, but true about EU. Until EU forms an army of its own, that's how it's going to be. Thing is, I'm not sure that's doable with current intra-relationships.
- posix_me_less 6y ago
  For an effective joint army to happen, it would probably need to be in the interest of majority of the european states. Which it isn't - it is much better for them to stay neutral or part of NATO as is.
baybal2 6y ago
> The only thing preventing China from taking out Taiwan is the United States. The only thing preventing China from taking out Taiwan is their mutual economic annihilation in case hostilities intensify. Taiwan's relationship with the US has been at best ambivalent. Do not forget US was close to waving a hand on the island just a decade ago.
- pmart123 6y ago
  https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/08/16/trump-oks-f-16-sale-to-taiwan-amid-china-tensions/ https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/08/16/trump-oks-f-... https://www.armyrecognition.com/april_2020_news_defense_global_security_army_industry/taiwan_preparing_reception_of_m1a2t_abrams_mbts_deliveries.html https://www.armyrecognition.com/april_2020_news_defense_glob... It seems like the US has been more willing to sell Taiwan better military equipment recently?
101404 6y ago
> The only thing preventing China from taking out Taiwan is the United States. Europe and the rest of the world is too cowardly to even do anything As a European, I have to agree. Here in Germany, I am sure the government would do nothing (other than symbolic protest), because it would be bad for German companies (short term).
bsd44 6y ago
You probably mean EU, not Europe. Europe is a continent. EU is not an ally of the US, but rather an American tool operated through Germany and the UK. This has nothing to do with being "cowardly". We people don't consider ourselves the policemen of the world and don't support invading foreign countries, destroying their economies and killing their women and children for financial gains; therefore we will never be allies. What you are referring to is the Brussels, which is far away from the people as it can be. You are the Empire, not us so if you want to go to war with China or anyone else for that matter please go ahead, just leave us out of it.
AsyncAwait 6y ago
To be fair, I wish the EU would put more pressure on the US too ie regarding the Iran Deal etc.

cm2187 6y ago

You are being downvoted but what happened with Crimea proves your point.

londons_explore 6y ago
True, although Crimea was pretty much testcase-scale - not many people live there, and its economic value is pretty low. Taiwan is much much more populous, and has a much higher economic value.
- avhception 6y ago
  Crimea has strategic value for the military though, the port of Sevastopol houses the Russian Black Sea fleet.
pmachinery 6y ago
What did the US do to prevent Russia "taking out" Crimea that the cowardly rest of the world didn't?
- cm2187 6y ago
  I am not saying it is obvious that the US would confront China militarily if it was to invade Taiwan. But Europe did let a friendly country at its immediate border get invaded and didn’t even stop buying the main resource the invader relies on (oil and gas). Let alone have any military involvement.
  - mschuster91 6y ago
    > and didn’t even stop buying the main resource the invader relies on (oil and gas) The problem is that Europe depends on (cheap) Russian gas for heating.
    - cm2187 6y ago
      Right. And we are realising now how dependant we are on the Chinese supply chain.
  - hrktb 6y ago
    The US didn't stop trading with Saudi Arabia even after proven involvement in 9/11/2001. It's all mildly complicated.
  - sergeykish 6y ago
    > The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States.... included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
- michaelt 6y ago
  Nothing - but Crimea is right on the EU's doorstep. Both Ukraine and Russia share borders with EU member states. If we EU member states didn't get involved when we saw a fight right in front of us, the threat of us getting involved in a fight thousands of miles away isn't very credible as a deterrent. More broadly, when I look at Taiwan I don't see the EU or US recognising Taiwan as a nation - let alone any tripwire forces or foreign airbases or nuclear sharing or NATO membership or joint training exercises which signal the fully fledged protection of a great power.
  - pmachinery 6y ago
    > Nothing - but Crimea is right on the EU's doorstep. So it's no further from US bases than EU bases. > Both Ukraine and Russia share borders with EU member states. And Russia is a two mile walkable ice bridge from the US in winter. > If we EU member states didn't get involved when we saw a fight right in front of us, the threat of us getting involved in a fight thousands of miles away isn't very credible as a deterrent. Distance isn't the issue. EU countries/NATO will bomb any puny country armed with obsolete weapons, wherever it is. What the US and EU will never do is get into a fight with a nuclear armed superpower.
    - viro 6y ago
      umm Russia isn't a super power. But the US and EU will avoid directly fighting any nuclear armed country... Well yea duh, the nuke doesn't need to hit us to kill the planet.
  - qbaqbaqba 6y ago
    Germany is more than happy to trade with Russia breaking sanctions https://www.dw.com/en/siemens-to-hike-russia-investment-despite-crimea-scandal/a-47548791 https://www.dw.com/en/siemens-to-hike-russia-investment-desp... Not to mention NordStreamII

ChuckNorris89 6y ago

It's definitely true for Europe being absolutely spineless when push comes to shove. The EU couldn't even put pressure on Erdogan let alone on Xi. China has been buying influence here for years, especially through the poorer countries that were alienated by the strict austerity measures imposed by the bigger powers. The nature of the EU politics where a single country has the power to veto the rest is a massive loophole that China is happily exploiting. The fact that every EU country has different interests and agendas is a huge problem that results to the union never aligning on anything critical. Just look how the refugee crisis was handled. Affected countries were crying for help and the others were like "sucks for you bro".

qbaqbaqba 6y ago
> through the poorer countries and German universities: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/china-influence-scandal-rocks-berlin-university https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/china-influence-sc...
posix_me_less 6y ago
Is that being spineless or unorganized and powerless?
- jdhn 6y ago
  Why not both?
- s_y_n_t_a_x 6y ago
  They're unorganized and powerless because they are spineless.

type-2 6y ago

Russia took crimea without any issue. Do you really think anything will happen if china took taiwan by force? It's a matter of time before china takes taiwan.

evgen 6y ago
As much as I like the Ukrainian people, no one cared about Crimea because it was of absolutely no strategic importance to anyone but Russia. Taiwan is critically important to the US. The US _will_ go to war to defend it, and China knows this.
- nabla9 6y ago
  The whole point of US Taiwan policy and the wording of US-Taiwan Relations Act is to make it sure that the US can refuse to war against China if it attacks Taiwan. US has treaties with South Korea and Japan that make it it clear that the US will defend them if they are under attack. The Taiwan treaty is worded in a way that US may provide assistance or limited support in a war.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    > US has treaties with South Korea and Japan that make it it clear that the US will defend them if they are under attack. A quadrilateral nuclear disarmament treaty with Ukraine the US has signed has even more explicit wording, yet...
    - nabla9 6y ago
      The explicit wording states that in case violent action they would seek immediate Security Council action. That is toothless assurance when Russia is permanent member of security council.
- Shivetya 6y ago
  Just a change in who is President is all that China is waiting for.

Keyframe 6y ago

Sad, but true about EU. Until EU forms an army of its own, that's how it's going to be. Thing is, I'm not sure that's doable with current intra-relationships.

posix_me_less 6y ago
For an effective joint army to happen, it would probably need to be in the interest of majority of the european states. Which it isn't - it is much better for them to stay neutral or part of NATO as is.

baybal2 6y ago

> The only thing preventing China from taking out Taiwan is the United States. The only thing preventing China from taking out Taiwan is their mutual economic annihilation in case hostilities intensify. Taiwan's relationship with the US has been at best ambivalent. Do not forget US was close to waving a hand on the island just a decade ago.

pmart123 6y ago
https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/08/16/trump-oks-f-16-sale-to-taiwan-amid-china-tensions/ https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/08/16/trump-oks-f-... https://www.armyrecognition.com/april_2020_news_defense_global_security_army_industry/taiwan_preparing_reception_of_m1a2t_abrams_mbts_deliveries.html https://www.armyrecognition.com/april_2020_news_defense_glob... It seems like the US has been more willing to sell Taiwan better military equipment recently?

101404 6y ago

> The only thing preventing China from taking out Taiwan is the United States. Europe and the rest of the world is too cowardly to even do anything As a European, I have to agree. Here in Germany, I am sure the government would do nothing (other than symbolic protest), because it would be bad for German companies (short term).

bsd44 6y ago

You probably mean EU, not Europe. Europe is a continent. EU is not an ally of the US, but rather an American tool operated through Germany and the UK. This has nothing to do with being "cowardly". We people don't consider ourselves the policemen of the world and don't support invading foreign countries, destroying their economies and killing their women and children for financial gains; therefore we will never be allies. What you are referring to is the Brussels, which is far away from the people as it can be. You are the Empire, not us so if you want to go to war with China or anyone else for that matter please go ahead, just leave us out of it.

AsyncAwait 6y ago

To be fair, I wish the EU would put more pressure on the US too ie regarding the Iran Deal etc.