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The baseline mortality rate for an 80 year old is about 0.5% per month. The mortality rate for an 80 year old with coronavirus is about 15%, with nearly all dea

The baseline mortality rate for an 80 year old is about 0.5% per month. The mortality rate for an 80 year old with coronavirus is about 15%, with nearly all deaths occurring within a month. So treating all deaths in coronavirus patients as being caused by coronavirus would only overstate the true case fatality rate by 3% or so. The ratio is similar for younger ages. Not sure why Joe Rogan or Elon Musk’s opinion would be relevant here.

jb775 6y ago
The glaring omission here is that this 80 year old with coronavirus could have had stage IV cancer, and pneumonia, and the Bubonic plague, but the official cause of death is being considered "Covid". And considering the 80 year old is probably broke at this point of their medical journey, the hospitals have the option to either get paid nothing, or can claim yet another Covid death so they get the $13k-$39k per-patient payment. Lump this death into the Covid death tally, the media goes crazy (to attract eyes and sell ads, among other nefarious reasons), we are all a little worse off, and the loop continues. And Elon Musk's opinion always matters.
- ikiris 6y ago
  You seem to not know how covid works (or medicine and/or medical examination) and that's fine, but please don't use your ignorance to sway others on subjects you have no knowledge in.
  - asabjorn 6y ago
    Dr Birx on the coronavirus task force says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause. See video-proof in [1]. This is due to the highly unusual CDC guidelines on how to classify coronavirus deaths. This is what parent refers to, and is not a knowledge-free comment. [1] https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/ https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-...
    - ikiris 6y ago
      Exactly what kind of death due to covid do you think shouldn't be classified as a covid death, and what are your medical credentials or evidentiary basis to justify such a stance? Even the Fox news comment doctor said it's a reasonable stance, because the examples given about kidney and heart problems which are supposed to seem obviously unrelated to general public are clearly not to someone with medical background.
      - asabjorn 6y ago
        Follow standard CDC procedure [1] and research cause of death for every death. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/hb_me.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/hb_me.pdf
    - asabjorn 6y ago
      Can't reply directly to Ikiris: It seems unfair to ask me another question without addressing my reference to Dr Birx statement. She is the one who's credentials this claim rest upon. Edit: reply to Ikiris child comment. Innuendo is not a valid argument against evidence and does not change what Dr Birx said. You have the video of her saying it, so your claim this is some lone voice saying something is not a valid argument.
      - ikiris 6y ago
        It's pointless to respond to the statements of anyone supporting Trump in his employ as a primary criteria for his employ is on its face the willingness to say anything he wishes. More generally, it is not the burden to disprove a lone voice, it is the burden to state that expert consensus is wrong and why, with data. You've done neither and instead relied on single confirming source instead of trying to falsify your position and failing.
        asabjorn 6y ago
        > It's pointless to respond to the statements of anyone supporting Trump in his employ as a primary criteria for his employ is on its face the willingness to say anything he wishes. Innuendo is not a valid argument against evidence and does not change what Dr Birx said. > More generally, it is not the burden to disprove a lone voice, it is the burden to state that expert consensus is wrong and why, with data. Dr Birx is on the coronavirus task force and if she is not a recognized expert in your eyes I do not know who is. You have the video of her saying it, so your claim this is some lone voice saying something is not a valid argument. > You've done neither and instead relied on single confirming source instead of trying to falsify your position and failing. You have no grounds for this claim. Please refrain from unfounded personal attacks in lieu of a reasoned argument on this forum, this is not reddit.
- tfehring 6y ago
  Pre-existing conditions are not omitted from the 0.5%/month mortality rate. They just aren’t as impactful because most 80 year olds don’t have immediately life threatening medical conditions. For every 80 year old who will die this month from cancer (or Bubonic plague, sure, why not) there are 199 others who won’t. But if those 200 people all have COVID-19, it will kill another 30 of them. Attributing 30 vs. 31 deaths to COVID-19 just doesn’t matter that much. 80 year olds have better coverage than younger Americans on average because of Medicare, despite Medicare’s generally lower reimbursement rates compared to private insurance, simply because so many younger Americans don’t have insurance at all. And I think you’re dramatically overestimating the strength of the incentives at play if you think medical professionals are defrauding the federal government en masse to line their employers’ pockets.
  - ikiris 6y ago
    You probably don't want to rely on that last statement. Having worked in the hospital sector, they in fact do and are proud of the fact (I've literally sat in presentations about the software and automation employed to do so as well as all hands meetings touting this as competitive advantage) that they upcode as much as possible without risking jail time to maximize revenue. The existence of all those specialty centers around hospital networks are specifically to support this model as well.

jb775 6y ago

The glaring omission here is that this 80 year old with coronavirus could have had stage IV cancer, and pneumonia, and the Bubonic plague, but the official cause of death is being considered "Covid". And considering the 80 year old is probably broke at this point of their medical journey, the hospitals have the option to either get paid nothing, or can claim yet another Covid death so they get the $13k-$39k per-patient payment. Lump this death into the Covid death tally, the media goes crazy (to attract eyes and sell ads, among other nefarious reasons), we are all a little worse off, and the loop continues. And Elon Musk's opinion always matters.

ikiris 6y ago
You seem to not know how covid works (or medicine and/or medical examination) and that's fine, but please don't use your ignorance to sway others on subjects you have no knowledge in.
- asabjorn 6y ago
  Dr Birx on the coronavirus task force says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause. See video-proof in [1]. This is due to the highly unusual CDC guidelines on how to classify coronavirus deaths. This is what parent refers to, and is not a knowledge-free comment. [1] https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/ https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-...
  - ikiris 6y ago
    Exactly what kind of death due to covid do you think shouldn't be classified as a covid death, and what are your medical credentials or evidentiary basis to justify such a stance? Even the Fox news comment doctor said it's a reasonable stance, because the examples given about kidney and heart problems which are supposed to seem obviously unrelated to general public are clearly not to someone with medical background.
    - asabjorn 6y ago
      Follow standard CDC procedure [1] and research cause of death for every death. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/hb_me.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/hb_me.pdf
  - asabjorn 6y ago
    Can't reply directly to Ikiris: It seems unfair to ask me another question without addressing my reference to Dr Birx statement. She is the one who's credentials this claim rest upon. Edit: reply to Ikiris child comment. Innuendo is not a valid argument against evidence and does not change what Dr Birx said. You have the video of her saying it, so your claim this is some lone voice saying something is not a valid argument.
    - ikiris 6y ago
      It's pointless to respond to the statements of anyone supporting Trump in his employ as a primary criteria for his employ is on its face the willingness to say anything he wishes. More generally, it is not the burden to disprove a lone voice, it is the burden to state that expert consensus is wrong and why, with data. You've done neither and instead relied on single confirming source instead of trying to falsify your position and failing.
      - asabjorn 6y ago
        > It's pointless to respond to the statements of anyone supporting Trump in his employ as a primary criteria for his employ is on its face the willingness to say anything he wishes. Innuendo is not a valid argument against evidence and does not change what Dr Birx said. > More generally, it is not the burden to disprove a lone voice, it is the burden to state that expert consensus is wrong and why, with data. Dr Birx is on the coronavirus task force and if she is not a recognized expert in your eyes I do not know who is. You have the video of her saying it, so your claim this is some lone voice saying something is not a valid argument. > You've done neither and instead relied on single confirming source instead of trying to falsify your position and failing. You have no grounds for this claim. Please refrain from unfounded personal attacks in lieu of a reasoned argument on this forum, this is not reddit.
tfehring 6y ago
Pre-existing conditions are not omitted from the 0.5%/month mortality rate. They just aren’t as impactful because most 80 year olds don’t have immediately life threatening medical conditions. For every 80 year old who will die this month from cancer (or Bubonic plague, sure, why not) there are 199 others who won’t. But if those 200 people all have COVID-19, it will kill another 30 of them. Attributing 30 vs. 31 deaths to COVID-19 just doesn’t matter that much. 80 year olds have better coverage than younger Americans on average because of Medicare, despite Medicare’s generally lower reimbursement rates compared to private insurance, simply because so many younger Americans don’t have insurance at all. And I think you’re dramatically overestimating the strength of the incentives at play if you think medical professionals are defrauding the federal government en masse to line their employers’ pockets.
- ikiris 6y ago
  You probably don't want to rely on that last statement. Having worked in the hospital sector, they in fact do and are proud of the fact (I've literally sat in presentations about the software and automation employed to do so as well as all hands meetings touting this as competitive advantage) that they upcode as much as possible without risking jail time to maximize revenue. The existence of all those specialty centers around hospital networks are specifically to support this model as well.