6 ms·

What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter mean

by slg 7y ago

What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.

centimeter 7y ago
If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.
- paulgb 7y ago
  Any recommendations?
  - mistermann 7y ago
    The best I know of: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid https://www.arnoldkling.com/ https://www.arnoldkling.com/ . https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid https://marginalrevolution.com/about https://marginalrevolution.com/about Those are two blogs that I think everyone should subscribe to. arnoldkling.com is particularly interesting because it seems to have unusually high quality in the comments section.
    - slg 7y ago
      I opened the first link and went to the post exactly from a month ago to see what it said. This part was strangely fitting considering your original complaint: >Having said all that, I am also dismayed that laymen put such pressure on epidemiologists to make forecasts. Imagine if it was your job when you see a leaf falling from a tree 40 feet overhead to place your foot on the exact spot where you “forecast” that the leaf will land.
      - mistermann 7y ago
        > This part was strangely fitting considering your original complaint I don't think I made any complaint, did I? This forum is becoming more inexplicably unusual every day - provide objectively quality responses to a specific request, and get downvoted, with a side order of insult to boot.
        deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
        slg 7y ago
        Sorry, my fault. I mixed up usernames. It was a different person who was criticizing experts and then you came in to back up their point with examples of good amateur work, but you made no direct complaint.
        mistermann 7y ago
        > Sorry, my fault. I mixed up usernames. So what if you did? What if I had made a criticism of experts, do you then downvote every other comment I make, regardless of its quality? I would very much like to hear your justification. EDIT: It might be a good idea for you to subscribe to the two blogs I mentioned above. It sounds like criticism of experts is something you haven't had a lot of exposure to.
        slg 7y ago
        I don't know what to tell you because I didn't downvote any comments in this thread. You can see comments by other people here were downvoted too, including a direct response to me and HN prevents you from downvoting direct responses. All I did was post a comment from the blog you linked that was directly relevant to the criticism in the first comment to which I was replying. I mistakenly assumed that original comment and the linked site were both from the same person and I already apologized for that mistake.
        7y ago
- Retric 7y ago
  Can you point to any actual posts from these people on the ship’s? As I have seen a lot of horrifically bad statistics by random posters.
  - oneiftwo 7y ago
    There was a comprehensive literature review posted on /r/coronavirus some two months ago that strong (and statistically robust in my opinion as a professional data scientist) indicating that smokers were less likely to be infected with the virus, with possible mechanisms from previous viruses like SARS and MERS. In fact that was one of the earliest common sources to mention ACE2 receptors. A month or so later there is at least one study looking at nicotine patches as prophylactic and/or treatment for covid. I'm having trouble finding the reddit thread, standby.
oneiftwo 7y ago
What special knowledge do you think you need to interpret 5 months of COVID studies? That's almost two semesters of grad school. You don't need a PhD to gain enough knowledge of covid from literature to speculate meaningfully on an internet forum, especially if you already have a graduate degree and practice research, as many people undoubtedly on HN do.
- slg 7y ago
  It sounds like you took offense to my comment which wasn't my intent. I was just making a lighthearted stats critique of someone complaining about statisticians. That said, I think statistics is like most other skills in that you get better at it the more you do it. All things being equal, I would trust the person who has spent more time thinking about a subject.

by slg 7y ago

centimeter 7y ago

If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.

paulgb 7y ago
Any recommendations?
- mistermann 7y ago
  The best I know of: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid https://www.arnoldkling.com/ https://www.arnoldkling.com/ . https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid https://marginalrevolution.com/about https://marginalrevolution.com/about Those are two blogs that I think everyone should subscribe to. arnoldkling.com is particularly interesting because it seems to have unusually high quality in the comments section.
  - slg 7y ago
    I opened the first link and went to the post exactly from a month ago to see what it said. This part was strangely fitting considering your original complaint: >Having said all that, I am also dismayed that laymen put such pressure on epidemiologists to make forecasts. Imagine if it was your job when you see a leaf falling from a tree 40 feet overhead to place your foot on the exact spot where you “forecast” that the leaf will land.
    - mistermann 7y ago
      > This part was strangely fitting considering your original complaint I don't think I made any complaint, did I? This forum is becoming more inexplicably unusual every day - provide objectively quality responses to a specific request, and get downvoted, with a side order of insult to boot.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      - slg 7y ago
        Sorry, my fault. I mixed up usernames. It was a different person who was criticizing experts and then you came in to back up their point with examples of good amateur work, but you made no direct complaint.
        mistermann 7y ago
        > Sorry, my fault. I mixed up usernames. So what if you did? What if I had made a criticism of experts, do you then downvote every other comment I make, regardless of its quality? I would very much like to hear your justification. EDIT: It might be a good idea for you to subscribe to the two blogs I mentioned above. It sounds like criticism of experts is something you haven't had a lot of exposure to.
        slg 7y ago
        I don't know what to tell you because I didn't downvote any comments in this thread. You can see comments by other people here were downvoted too, including a direct response to me and HN prevents you from downvoting direct responses. All I did was post a comment from the blog you linked that was directly relevant to the criticism in the first comment to which I was replying. I mistakenly assumed that original comment and the linked site were both from the same person and I already apologized for that mistake.
        7y ago
Retric 7y ago
Can you point to any actual posts from these people on the ship’s? As I have seen a lot of horrifically bad statistics by random posters.
- oneiftwo 7y ago
  There was a comprehensive literature review posted on /r/coronavirus some two months ago that strong (and statistically robust in my opinion as a professional data scientist) indicating that smokers were less likely to be infected with the virus, with possible mechanisms from previous viruses like SARS and MERS. In fact that was one of the earliest common sources to mention ACE2 receptors. A month or so later there is at least one study looking at nicotine patches as prophylactic and/or treatment for covid. I'm having trouble finding the reddit thread, standby.

oneiftwo 7y ago

What special knowledge do you think you need to interpret 5 months of COVID studies? That's almost two semesters of grad school. You don't need a PhD to gain enough knowledge of covid from literature to speculate meaningfully on an internet forum, especially if you already have a graduate degree and practice research, as many people undoubtedly on HN do.

slg 7y ago
It sounds like you took offense to my comment which wasn't my intent. I was just making a lighthearted stats critique of someone complaining about statisticians. That said, I think statistics is like most other skills in that you get better at it the more you do it. All things being equal, I would trust the person who has spent more time thinking about a subject.