4 ms·

Just as an extra wrench in the works, an unknown number of prisoners have been released or transferred, probably after being deemed higher risk: https://www.goo

Just as an extra wrench in the works, an unknown number of prisoners have been released or transferred, probably after being deemed higher risk: https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/494266-judge-says-ohio-prison-hit-by-coronavirus-is-fighting-a-losing%3famp https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/regulation/court-ba... So death rates may still be reduced by interventions. Take care, arm chair statisticians.

centimeter 6y ago
> Take care, arm chair statisticians FWIW, during this whole process, people reasonably described as “arm chair statisticians” have been putting out higher-quality and more accurate statistical analysis than any public-facing government or media source. The only high-quality analysis I’ve seen has been from “amateurs” (I.e. not employed by institutional sources of narrative information) and expensive subscription-only financial analysis services.
- zzzzzzzza 6y ago
  eh lots of people could tell ihme model was wrong/doing inappropriate curve fitting, but los alamos model for example seems pretty good to me, as an armchair statistician.
- slg 6y ago
  What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.
  - centimeter 6y ago
    If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.
    - paulgb 6y ago
      Any recommendations?
      - mistermann 6y ago
        The best I know of: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid https://www.arnoldkling.com/ https://www.arnoldkling.com/ . https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid https://marginalrevolution.com/about https://marginalrevolution.com/about Those are two blogs that I think everyone should subscribe to. arnoldkling.com is particularly interesting because it seems to have unusually high quality in the comments section.
        slg 6y ago
        I opened the first link and went to the post exactly from a month ago to see what it said. This part was strangely fitting considering your original complaint: >Having said all that, I am also dismayed that laymen put such pressure on epidemiologists to make forecasts. Imagine if it was your job when you see a leaf falling from a tree 40 feet overhead to place your foot on the exact spot where you “forecast” that the leaf will land.
        mistermann 6y ago
        > This part was strangely fitting considering your original complaint I don't think I made any complaint, did I? This forum is becoming more inexplicably unusual every day - provide objectively quality responses to a specific request, and get downvoted, with a side order of insult to boot.
        deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
        slg 6y ago
        Sorry, my fault. I mixed up usernames. It was a different person who was criticizing experts and then you came in to back up their point with examples of good amateur work, but you made no direct complaint.
  - oneiftwo 6y ago
    What special knowledge do you think you need to interpret 5 months of COVID studies? That's almost two semesters of grad school. You don't need a PhD to gain enough knowledge of covid from literature to speculate meaningfully on an internet forum, especially if you already have a graduate degree and practice research, as many people undoubtedly on HN do.
    - slg 6y ago
      It sounds like you took offense to my comment which wasn't my intent. I was just making a lighthearted stats critique of someone complaining about statisticians. That said, I think statistics is like most other skills in that you get better at it the more you do it. All things being equal, I would trust the person who has spent more time thinking about a subject.
- sdenton4 6y ago
  The remark is mainly directed to the pile of comments already in this thread trying to naively divide column sums to get a death rate...
ThePowerOfFuet 6y ago
Can you please not spread the web cancer which is AMP? https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/494266-judge-says-ohio-prison-hit-by-coronavirus-is-fighting-a-losing https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/494266-judge-sa...
- enzv 6y ago
  Valid point, but please tone down the language.

centimeter 6y ago

> Take care, arm chair statisticians FWIW, during this whole process, people reasonably described as “arm chair statisticians” have been putting out higher-quality and more accurate statistical analysis than any public-facing government or media source. The only high-quality analysis I’ve seen has been from “amateurs” (I.e. not employed by institutional sources of narrative information) and expensive subscription-only financial analysis services.

zzzzzzzza 6y ago
eh lots of people could tell ihme model was wrong/doing inappropriate curve fitting, but los alamos model for example seems pretty good to me, as an armchair statistician.
slg 6y ago
What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.
- centimeter 6y ago
  If that’s the case, then I must have a really good selection algorithm, because the people I talk with/pay attention to are pretty uniformly good.
  - paulgb 6y ago
    Any recommendations?
    - mistermann 6y ago
      The best I know of: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid https://www.arnoldkling.com/ https://www.arnoldkling.com/ . https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid https://marginalrevolution.com/about https://marginalrevolution.com/about Those are two blogs that I think everyone should subscribe to. arnoldkling.com is particularly interesting because it seems to have unusually high quality in the comments section.
      - slg 6y ago
        I opened the first link and went to the post exactly from a month ago to see what it said. This part was strangely fitting considering your original complaint: >Having said all that, I am also dismayed that laymen put such pressure on epidemiologists to make forecasts. Imagine if it was your job when you see a leaf falling from a tree 40 feet overhead to place your foot on the exact spot where you “forecast” that the leaf will land.
        mistermann 6y ago
        > This part was strangely fitting considering your original complaint I don't think I made any complaint, did I? This forum is becoming more inexplicably unusual every day - provide objectively quality responses to a specific request, and get downvoted, with a side order of insult to boot.
        deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
        slg 6y ago
        Sorry, my fault. I mixed up usernames. It was a different person who was criticizing experts and then you came in to back up their point with examples of good amateur work, but you made no direct complaint.
- oneiftwo 6y ago
  What special knowledge do you think you need to interpret 5 months of COVID studies? That's almost two semesters of grad school. You don't need a PhD to gain enough knowledge of covid from literature to speculate meaningfully on an internet forum, especially if you already have a graduate degree and practice research, as many people undoubtedly on HN do.
  - slg 6y ago
    It sounds like you took offense to my comment which wasn't my intent. I was just making a lighthearted stats critique of someone complaining about statisticians. That said, I think statistics is like most other skills in that you get better at it the more you do it. All things being equal, I would trust the person who has spent more time thinking about a subject.
sdenton4 6y ago
The remark is mainly directed to the pile of comments already in this thread trying to naively divide column sums to get a death rate...

ThePowerOfFuet 6y ago

Can you please not spread the web cancer which is AMP? https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/494266-judge-says-ohio-prison-hit-by-coronavirus-is-fighting-a-losing https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/494266-judge-sa...

enzv 6y ago
Valid point, but please tone down the language.