4 ms·

Are you saying famine can't happen today? I don't get it.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I think it's fair to say that famine can't happen in areas with access to modern agricultural technology. (Which is a very real difference; until modern times there was no country so rich or productive that it didn't have to worry about famine.)
- jtbayly 6y ago
  But NYC doesn’t have such access. Only a small portion of the population does. The rest only have access to supply chains. I’m not saying this virus is enough to cause famine in the USA. I just think it’s silly to assume that because (somewhere in our country) there is the capability to grow enough food for everybody that therefore there can’t be famine anymore.
carapace 6y ago
I hate to bet against human stupidity, but yeah, essentially this virus will not cause famine. It just doesn't require that many people to grow and distribute food these days. (Even before the virus hit we have been massively overproducing and wasting food globally. People go hungry today not because of lack of production but because it's cheaper to throw away food than give it to those in need. Shamefull, IMO, but that's the way it is. We could feed everybody on Earth but we just don't.) Advice meant for the ruler of a small kingdom or city-state twenty centuries ago just isn't applicable today.
- TeMPOraL 6y ago
  I think you haven't been following supply chain news recently. Or what UN says. There's absolutely going to be famine in less developed countries, and much higher food prices and lower variety in the coming months in developed countries.
  - carapace 6y ago
    No, you're right, I was being provincial, just talking about North America. Globally, yes, there will be famine. I don't have enough information to do other than speculate but even though it seems likely at this point I would be surprised if it happens due to lack of food rather than failures of distribution. I believe that, if we can just get our act together a little bit, we can weather the virus and repair the economy and no one has to starve. We have the capacity to grow and deliver the food. - - - - I have to add, I was watching John Oliver's show the other day and he had a clip of that Alex Jones guy advocating cannibalism, talking openly about how he's down to eat his neighbors! I'm looking at him thinking, "You got a lotta meat on yer bones to talk like that fella." When this all first started I was worried about the failure of the food system and the possibility of "long pork" appearing in city butcher shops. Once I got more information I felt silly: at it's worst this virus can't kill enough people fast enough to disrupt the system badly enough. The worst-case scenario still isn't that bad. It's still horrible, but at least we won't have to eat each other.
    - TeMPOraL 6y ago
      Yeah, it won't come to cannibalism in North America. But I would be worried about pork prices if I were you. Or really, all food prices. The thing is you (in the US) and we (in the generalized Western world) theoretically have enough capacity to grow and deliver food, but caveats abound. Right this very moment, farmers in the US are destroying fields of perfectly good produce, because with HoReCa market disappearing, the supply chain can't readjust fast enough to redirect all this food to grocery stores and food banks. Processing, packaging, shipping and certifications are all a problem, so as a result, whole harvests go to waste, and the farmers that won't be bankrupted by that may be very careful about what, and how much, they plant next season. (My favourite, early example of that is flour being forever out of stock in some countries, like the UK. Turns out, it's not for the lack of flour, but lack of packaging - as bakeries lost a big chunk of their market and people started baking bread at home, there isn't enough capacity to package the flour in consumer-sized bags. But if you want to buy flour by 50 kilo bags, you can easily find someone who'll accommodate you.) Similar stories from the US wrt. meat processing - farmers struggling to find ways to euthanize and dispose of hogs, as meat processing plants around the country suffered a series of COVID-19 outbreaks. There's no way to buffer hogs; they take lots of space and food, and keep growing in size beyond what the pipeline is able to process. Last I checked on /r/supplychain, the processing capacity is reported to have risen again to 71% of the usual. Then, for more varied fruits & vegs there's the ongoing migrant worker problem that I don't think has been resolved, though it has fallen off the news cycle a while ago. But in April, farmers were worried that they'll have to destroy their whole fields because without cheap migrant labor, they can't sell their harvest. (With the exception of massive meat processing plant shutdowns, the I hear the same stories all around Europe as well.) -- As for the poorer countries - remember that locust plague we discussed on HN early this year? They're still out there, and on their way to eat India.

I think it's fair to say that famine can't happen in areas with access to modern agricultural technology. (Which is a very real difference; until modern times there was no country so rich or productive that it didn't have to worry about famine.)

jtbayly 6y ago
But NYC doesn’t have such access. Only a small portion of the population does. The rest only have access to supply chains. I’m not saying this virus is enough to cause famine in the USA. I just think it’s silly to assume that because (somewhere in our country) there is the capability to grow enough food for everybody that therefore there can’t be famine anymore.

carapace 6y ago

I hate to bet against human stupidity, but yeah, essentially this virus will not cause famine. It just doesn't require that many people to grow and distribute food these days. (Even before the virus hit we have been massively overproducing and wasting food globally. People go hungry today not because of lack of production but because it's cheaper to throw away food than give it to those in need. Shamefull, IMO, but that's the way it is. We could feed everybody on Earth but we just don't.) Advice meant for the ruler of a small kingdom or city-state twenty centuries ago just isn't applicable today.

TeMPOraL 6y ago
I think you haven't been following supply chain news recently. Or what UN says. There's absolutely going to be famine in less developed countries, and much higher food prices and lower variety in the coming months in developed countries.
- carapace 6y ago
  No, you're right, I was being provincial, just talking about North America. Globally, yes, there will be famine. I don't have enough information to do other than speculate but even though it seems likely at this point I would be surprised if it happens due to lack of food rather than failures of distribution. I believe that, if we can just get our act together a little bit, we can weather the virus and repair the economy and no one has to starve. We have the capacity to grow and deliver the food. - - - - I have to add, I was watching John Oliver's show the other day and he had a clip of that Alex Jones guy advocating cannibalism, talking openly about how he's down to eat his neighbors! I'm looking at him thinking, "You got a lotta meat on yer bones to talk like that fella." When this all first started I was worried about the failure of the food system and the possibility of "long pork" appearing in city butcher shops. Once I got more information I felt silly: at it's worst this virus can't kill enough people fast enough to disrupt the system badly enough. The worst-case scenario still isn't that bad. It's still horrible, but at least we won't have to eat each other.
  - TeMPOraL 6y ago
    Yeah, it won't come to cannibalism in North America. But I would be worried about pork prices if I were you. Or really, all food prices. The thing is you (in the US) and we (in the generalized Western world) theoretically have enough capacity to grow and deliver food, but caveats abound. Right this very moment, farmers in the US are destroying fields of perfectly good produce, because with HoReCa market disappearing, the supply chain can't readjust fast enough to redirect all this food to grocery stores and food banks. Processing, packaging, shipping and certifications are all a problem, so as a result, whole harvests go to waste, and the farmers that won't be bankrupted by that may be very careful about what, and how much, they plant next season. (My favourite, early example of that is flour being forever out of stock in some countries, like the UK. Turns out, it's not for the lack of flour, but lack of packaging - as bakeries lost a big chunk of their market and people started baking bread at home, there isn't enough capacity to package the flour in consumer-sized bags. But if you want to buy flour by 50 kilo bags, you can easily find someone who'll accommodate you.) Similar stories from the US wrt. meat processing - farmers struggling to find ways to euthanize and dispose of hogs, as meat processing plants around the country suffered a series of COVID-19 outbreaks. There's no way to buffer hogs; they take lots of space and food, and keep growing in size beyond what the pipeline is able to process. Last I checked on /r/supplychain, the processing capacity is reported to have risen again to 71% of the usual. Then, for more varied fruits & vegs there's the ongoing migrant worker problem that I don't think has been resolved, though it has fallen off the news cycle a while ago. But in April, farmers were worried that they'll have to destroy their whole fields because without cheap migrant labor, they can't sell their harvest. (With the exception of massive meat processing plant shutdowns, the I hear the same stories all around Europe as well.) -- As for the poorer countries - remember that locust plague we discussed on HN early this year? They're still out there, and on their way to eat India.