5 ms·

17 days ago we heard that 3,330 inmates tested positive, 96% without symptoms. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?

17 days ago we heard that 3,330 inmates tested positive, 96% without symptoms. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932 There was much speculation, but many people agreed that in 2 weeks we would have super interesting data. It's been 17 days. We have an update from ohio.gov that tested individuals climbed to 7536, 4439 are positive (59%), total 49 deaths (.01) Not an epidemiologist. Does this data fit the Diamond Princess model? Or more broadly, which model fits this data best? Is there other data to show how many became symptomatic? How do we interpret this update, more than 2 weeks after initial reports?

ecpottinger 6y ago
Diamond Princess had a far higher percentage of older (over 70) people. I also would like to know if the HVAC system is as centralize in a prison as it is on a cruise ship.
- vkou 6y ago
  HVAC is not the problem. The problem is that prisoners routinely share common spaces. It doesn't matter how the air circulates, when they all cook, eat, work, shower, and exercise in the exact same communal rooms. Combine that with insufficient sanitation, and it's a miracle that only half of them got sick.
  - RandallBrown 6y ago
    Cruise ships are pretty similar in that people are eating and recreating in the same areas.
  - limaoscarjuliet 6y ago
    HVAC might be a problem, there was a CDC article demonstrating how A/C was attributed to specific cases in China https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
    - vkou 6y ago
      I agree that HVAC can cause spread. My point is that prison life does not allow for social distancing, and that the HVAC is irrelevant when everyone is living in essentially the same space.
vondur 6y ago
I'd like to know the ages of the deceased, and if they had any other serious health issues. If the majority of the deceased are indeed old or in poor health, perhaps isolating those from the general prison population would be a prudent precautionary measure to implement.
deleted 6y ago
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brohoolio 6y ago
I’ve been thinking about the asymptotic cases in situations like this and the Roosevelt. I think if folks are monitored very closely for symptoms we might learn more about how it impacts people and what percentage of cases stay asymptotic.
cbarrick 6y ago
The number of "inmates currently Positive for COVID-19" is 1,112, not 4,439. I think you're counting tests, not people. Those numbers double count inmates who receive multiple tests, and it's likely that those who have tested positive will receive frequent retests. FYI there's just under 40k total inmates.
npunt 6y ago
There have been other state prisons that have released prisoners that were severe cases, so as to lower their death numbers. Look for that.
sirsar 6y ago
> total 49 deaths (.01) If you're going to report other ratios as percentages, could you please be consistent? I initially erroneously read this as 0.01% deaths, which would be an absolutely enormous update, but 1% isn't surprising at all.
kiba 6y ago
Don't forget we can't really acquire complete mortality data until the coronavirus run their courses in infected individual.
Gibbon1 6y ago
I keep seeing reports that after an outbreak has played out about 25% of infected never show symptoms and 60% have something between a mild cold and a bad case of influenza. The remaining 15% get really sick and ~1% die. If you just look at the stats initially you run into the problem that a lot of infected are preasymptomatic are in the early course of infection. So retrospective stats are very important.
stx 6y ago
Keep in mind this is deaths so far. This number will change as some may take more time to die. So maybe the radio could be around 1% to 2%.
csomar 6y ago
What's the average number of natural/usual death, though. You have to subtract that. It might be small/none or substantial.

ecpottinger 6y ago

Diamond Princess had a far higher percentage of older (over 70) people. I also would like to know if the HVAC system is as centralize in a prison as it is on a cruise ship.

vkou 6y ago
HVAC is not the problem. The problem is that prisoners routinely share common spaces. It doesn't matter how the air circulates, when they all cook, eat, work, shower, and exercise in the exact same communal rooms. Combine that with insufficient sanitation, and it's a miracle that only half of them got sick.
- RandallBrown 6y ago
  Cruise ships are pretty similar in that people are eating and recreating in the same areas.
- limaoscarjuliet 6y ago
  HVAC might be a problem, there was a CDC article demonstrating how A/C was attributed to specific cases in China https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
  - vkou 6y ago
    I agree that HVAC can cause spread. My point is that prison life does not allow for social distancing, and that the HVAC is irrelevant when everyone is living in essentially the same space.

vondur 6y ago

I'd like to know the ages of the deceased, and if they had any other serious health issues. If the majority of the deceased are indeed old or in poor health, perhaps isolating those from the general prison population would be a prudent precautionary measure to implement.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

brohoolio 6y ago

I’ve been thinking about the asymptotic cases in situations like this and the Roosevelt. I think if folks are monitored very closely for symptoms we might learn more about how it impacts people and what percentage of cases stay asymptotic.

cbarrick 6y ago

The number of "inmates currently Positive for COVID-19" is 1,112, not 4,439. I think you're counting tests, not people. Those numbers double count inmates who receive multiple tests, and it's likely that those who have tested positive will receive frequent retests. FYI there's just under 40k total inmates.

npunt 6y ago

There have been other state prisons that have released prisoners that were severe cases, so as to lower their death numbers. Look for that.

sirsar 6y ago

> total 49 deaths (.01) If you're going to report other ratios as percentages, could you please be consistent? I initially erroneously read this as 0.01% deaths, which would be an absolutely enormous update, but 1% isn't surprising at all.

kiba 6y ago

Don't forget we can't really acquire complete mortality data until the coronavirus run their courses in infected individual.

Gibbon1 6y ago

I keep seeing reports that after an outbreak has played out about 25% of infected never show symptoms and 60% have something between a mild cold and a bad case of influenza. The remaining 15% get really sick and ~1% die. If you just look at the stats initially you run into the problem that a lot of infected are preasymptomatic are in the early course of infection. So retrospective stats are very important.

stx 6y ago

Keep in mind this is deaths so far. This number will change as some may take more time to die. So maybe the radio could be around 1% to 2%.

csomar 6y ago

What's the average number of natural/usual death, though. You have to subtract that. It might be small/none or substantial.