7 ms·

GA "opened up" salons on 4/24 and restaurants on 4/27. I say that with quotes since many places remain closed for dine-in service. Nonetheless, it's been 2 week

GA "opened up" salons on 4/24 and restaurants on 4/27. I say that with quotes since many places remain closed for dine-in service. Nonetheless, it's been 2 weeks and we've only seen a slight decrease in case rates: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavi... Meanwhile, our testing rates have shot up to the ~7500/day range and our positive test rate has gone from ~25% down to 13.2% today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVHnAav_zEKo77a4g263gBNIoM/edit#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVH...

cozzyd 6y ago
At least for Illinois, models predicted that a May 1 reopening would lead to a very large second peak in June with high probability. See e.g. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi.... It's more than 2-week lag time due to the time required for R_0 to increase (due to people's habits), a number of generations required to noticed, and the general lag time of the issues.
blamestross 6y ago
I think that is intentionally being manipulated. They are pushing for asymptomatic people to be tested in droves. The % is accurate but the biases in sampling don't make it an apples-to-apples comparison anymore.
leesec 6y ago
This graph shows that things will be slow even when 'reopened' due to human behavior, which means you may not see Covid spikes for a while yet. https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9e438ac18c.png?width=780&height=520&rect=1319x879&offset=36x0 https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9...
- __blockcipher__ 6y ago
  This seems like an argument for letting states “reopen” then...
ojnabieoot 6y ago
An important caveat here is that Georgia has also seen only a slight increase in non-lockdown activity despite whatever Governor Kemp may say Georgians should be doing: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/05/number-of-people-willing-to-risk-choking-to-death-alone-to-eat-in-at-ruby-tuesdays-surprisingly-limited https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/05/number-of-peopl... The lockdown and resulting economic damage is much less an effort of state enforcement than it is individuals being (correctly) terrified to engage in commerce unless absolutely necessary.
- JPKab 6y ago
  "The lockdown and resulting economic damage is much less an effort of state enforcement than it is individuals being (correctly) terrified to engage in commerce unless absolutely necessary." What makes you so sure that average people should be CORRECTLY terrified of this virus? If I'm in a high-risk category, I get it. But what about others? Are the rates of severe infection remotely high in people who aren't elderly, immuno-compromised, or with underlying conditions? Keep in mind, the advice on this SHOULD be different depending on where you are. NYC? Sure, be incredibly vigilant. Nebraska? Probably not a big deal.
  - greedo 6y ago
    Considering that Nebraska is turning into a hotspot, you might want to reconsider your last statement.
    - bitbuilder 6y ago
      Source for Nebraska turning into a hotspot? Looking at all the trackers I have bookmarked I'm not seeing much of an indication of this. Yes, confirmed cases seem to be up in the last week, but that seems to track with increased testing (a good thing). The rate of positives is showing a decline over the same time period. More indicative of an outbreak would be increased hospitalizations or deaths. Hospital bed usage has been at the same level since mid April, and deaths have been at a steady 1 to 3 per day since the end of April. Sources: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test?state=NE https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test?state=NE https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/nebraska https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/nebr... https://infection2020.com/# https://infection2020.com/#
kahnjw 6y ago
This perfectly illustrates the "opening up" paradox. If you, as a Government, aggressively open but the public still sees risk, not much will change. People won't go outside much because they perceive risk. We'll have to wait much longer to actually know whether opening aggressively is a mistake or not. From my perspective the risk of opening too early and starting a second wave much later in the year, is worth taking very seriously. I'd say anyone drawing conclusions from a a few weeks data has a 50% chance of getting burned at this point.
- janee 6y ago
  That's interesting because I live in a country where it's the opposite, e.g still only essential services after 2 months, limited goods sold, ban on cigarette and alcohol sales, curfews for shopping. Point is I think the opposite of what you're saying might happen here, i.e. regulations loosen and there's going to be a disproportionate number of exposures as a place not so tightly regulated
  - kahnjw 6y ago
    I could have been more clear. My point is that aggressively reopening might still be dangerous, but it'll take a while for the public to convince themselves it's safe enough to start going out, even though it isn't. I'd imagine this would be driven by both consumers not wanting to get sick _and_ businesses trying to avoid liability for employees and customers.
Izkata 6y ago
I've heard that Georgia also just changed how they report cases - instead of date of diagnosis, it's date of onset - so the numbers themselves now have additional lag and we won't know a given day's real numbers until a week or two later as they're backfilled.
mmmBacon 6y ago
7500 tests per day is a drop in the bucket. There are ~4M people in Georgia. It would take 18 months to test the entire state at that rate.
chasd00 6y ago
I've been watching closely, one convenient thing about this is we only have to wait about 3 more weeks to have the definitive answer on GA, FL, and maybe even TX. It's not like we have to wait decades to see it play out. Go here and scroll down to Cases by US States/Territories per Day and highlight GA, FL, and TX then play with the metrics. All three seem pretty stable so far. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

cozzyd 6y ago

At least for Illinois, models predicted that a May 1 reopening would lead to a very large second peak in June with high probability. See e.g. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi.... It's more than 2-week lag time due to the time required for R_0 to increase (due to people's habits), a number of generations required to noticed, and the general lag time of the issues.

blamestross 6y ago

I think that is intentionally being manipulated. They are pushing for asymptomatic people to be tested in droves. The % is accurate but the biases in sampling don't make it an apples-to-apples comparison anymore.

leesec 6y ago

This graph shows that things will be slow even when 'reopened' due to human behavior, which means you may not see Covid spikes for a while yet. https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9e438ac18c.png?width=780&height=520&rect=1319x879&offset=36x0 https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9...

__blockcipher__ 6y ago
This seems like an argument for letting states “reopen” then...

ojnabieoot 6y ago

An important caveat here is that Georgia has also seen only a slight increase in non-lockdown activity despite whatever Governor Kemp may say Georgians should be doing: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/05/number-of-people-willing-to-risk-choking-to-death-alone-to-eat-in-at-ruby-tuesdays-surprisingly-limited https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/05/number-of-peopl... The lockdown and resulting economic damage is much less an effort of state enforcement than it is individuals being (correctly) terrified to engage in commerce unless absolutely necessary.

JPKab 6y ago
"The lockdown and resulting economic damage is much less an effort of state enforcement than it is individuals being (correctly) terrified to engage in commerce unless absolutely necessary." What makes you so sure that average people should be CORRECTLY terrified of this virus? If I'm in a high-risk category, I get it. But what about others? Are the rates of severe infection remotely high in people who aren't elderly, immuno-compromised, or with underlying conditions? Keep in mind, the advice on this SHOULD be different depending on where you are. NYC? Sure, be incredibly vigilant. Nebraska? Probably not a big deal.
- greedo 6y ago
  Considering that Nebraska is turning into a hotspot, you might want to reconsider your last statement.
  - bitbuilder 6y ago
    Source for Nebraska turning into a hotspot? Looking at all the trackers I have bookmarked I'm not seeing much of an indication of this. Yes, confirmed cases seem to be up in the last week, but that seems to track with increased testing (a good thing). The rate of positives is showing a decline over the same time period. More indicative of an outbreak would be increased hospitalizations or deaths. Hospital bed usage has been at the same level since mid April, and deaths have been at a steady 1 to 3 per day since the end of April. Sources: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test?state=NE https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test?state=NE https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/nebraska https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/nebr... https://infection2020.com/# https://infection2020.com/#

kahnjw 6y ago

This perfectly illustrates the "opening up" paradox. If you, as a Government, aggressively open but the public still sees risk, not much will change. People won't go outside much because they perceive risk. We'll have to wait much longer to actually know whether opening aggressively is a mistake or not. From my perspective the risk of opening too early and starting a second wave much later in the year, is worth taking very seriously. I'd say anyone drawing conclusions from a a few weeks data has a 50% chance of getting burned at this point.

janee 6y ago
That's interesting because I live in a country where it's the opposite, e.g still only essential services after 2 months, limited goods sold, ban on cigarette and alcohol sales, curfews for shopping. Point is I think the opposite of what you're saying might happen here, i.e. regulations loosen and there's going to be a disproportionate number of exposures as a place not so tightly regulated
- kahnjw 6y ago
  I could have been more clear. My point is that aggressively reopening might still be dangerous, but it'll take a while for the public to convince themselves it's safe enough to start going out, even though it isn't. I'd imagine this would be driven by both consumers not wanting to get sick _and_ businesses trying to avoid liability for employees and customers.

Izkata 6y ago

I've heard that Georgia also just changed how they report cases - instead of date of diagnosis, it's date of onset - so the numbers themselves now have additional lag and we won't know a given day's real numbers until a week or two later as they're backfilled.

mmmBacon 6y ago

7500 tests per day is a drop in the bucket. There are ~4M people in Georgia. It would take 18 months to test the entire state at that rate.

chasd00 6y ago

I've been watching closely, one convenient thing about this is we only have to wait about 3 more weeks to have the definitive answer on GA, FL, and maybe even TX. It's not like we have to wait decades to see it play out. Go here and scroll down to Cases by US States/Territories per Day and highlight GA, FL, and TX then play with the metrics. All three seem pretty stable so far. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/