6 ms·

>By now I would have thought that all hell would break loose in Florida but it doesn’t seem to be happening. How long ago did Florida open everything back up?

>By now I would have thought that all hell would break loose in Florida but it doesn’t seem to be happening. How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th? That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Put a note on your calendar to check again in 7 days.

prostoalex 7y ago
The reference is to all the spring break parties taking place two months ago https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-beaches-packed-despite-coronavirus-fears-as-spring-break-arrives/ https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-... Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place.
- fullstop 7y ago
  > Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place. How would we know? They are spread across the nation.
- slg 7y ago
  People on spring break are mostly young and the people they interact with while on spring break are mostly young. You would probably need to look at contacts two or three degrees away from them to notice the spike. Has there been an in depth analysis of the extended network of those people?
  - prostoalex 7y ago
    But even that has a policy implication that stay-at-home order can exempt people of certain age.
    - slg 7y ago
      IANAL, but I imagine a stay-at-home order that is based on age would result in constitutional challenges.
      - tick_tock_tick 7y ago
        It's unlikely the current orders would survive any court scrutiny.
        ceejayoz 7y ago
        Where are the emergency injunctions, then?
        harambaebae69 7y ago
        Alameda backed off elon musk pretty fast, probably because they had little legal footing https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-musk-wins-battle-with-alameda-county-tesla-factory-allowed-to-reopen/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-m...
    - greglindahl 7y ago
      If a young person goes to a nursing home and infects everyone, is it not connected to spring break unless the old people went to spring break? Keep in mind that the young person might be a medical worker, or in the family of a medical worker.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  On 3/14 we had about 3k COVID-19 cases in the US. By the end of April, we had about 200k. Our contact tracing efforts at the time (and now) likely aren't sufficient to tie specific cases back to Florida's spring break, but it's unlikely to have helped.
  - pashamur 7y ago
    We had 3k reported cases, not 3k cases. That's a large difference. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of cases from 3/14 was hundreds of thousands. There were 58 deaths reported by 3/14. If you assume that mortality is 1% (probably on the high side, but good enough for estimates), that translates to ~6k cases. However, since we know that deaths lag cases by 1-3 weeks (let's assume 2 weeks for the analysis), we should be looking at deaths two weeks from 3/14, which would be 3/28. By 3/28, there were ~3k deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the true estimate of the number of cases from 3/14 is likely around 270,000 cases (estimate range is 130K - 800K). This also means that there were about 8.5 million cases in the US on May 1st (I happen to think mortality is closer to 0.5%, so that would be ~17 million cases instead), and that we've most likely crossed the 10 (or 20) million case mark by now.
- mistersquid 7y ago
  > it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US and certainly wasn't during the weeks of US Spring Break (ca. mid-Mar)? In any case, you are mistaken that "we have not seen the spike take place". [0] See, especially, the map "generated by Tectonix GEO and X-Mode Social" about 1/3 of the way down the page. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-c...
  - prostoalex 7y ago
    > What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US Plane tickets were bought, credit card spending took place, cell phone towers were pinged, hotel reservations had names linked to them, relatives, friends or colleagues aware of the whereabouts and can be interviewed post-mortem? For what it's worth, they're able to pinpoint specific parties or night club performances https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identifies-at-least-5-coronavirus-cases-from-single-birthday-party/ https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identif... https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-mayors-birthday-bash-at-trump-golf-club-leaves-partygoers-with-coronavirus/ https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-...
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- eloff 7y ago
  We had a big spike in Quebec after spring break as people returned from Florida and France. The province is still the worst in Canada. BC took note and advised people not to travel for spring break (our break here is later). BC is doing very well by comparison.
  - makomk 7y ago
    I'd be a lot more worried about the people returning from France than Florida, they've had a pretty major outbreak.
timdorr 7y ago
GA "opened up" salons on 4/24 and restaurants on 4/27. I say that with quotes since many places remain closed for dine-in service. Nonetheless, it's been 2 weeks and we've only seen a slight decrease in case rates: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavi... Meanwhile, our testing rates have shot up to the ~7500/day range and our positive test rate has gone from ~25% down to 13.2% today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVHnAav_zEKo77a4g263gBNIoM/edit#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVH...
- cozzyd 7y ago
  At least for Illinois, models predicted that a May 1 reopening would lead to a very large second peak in June with high probability. See e.g. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi.... It's more than 2-week lag time due to the time required for R_0 to increase (due to people's habits), a number of generations required to noticed, and the general lag time of the issues.
- blamestross 7y ago
  I think that is intentionally being manipulated. They are pushing for asymptomatic people to be tested in droves. The % is accurate but the biases in sampling don't make it an apples-to-apples comparison anymore.
- leesec 7y ago
  This graph shows that things will be slow even when 'reopened' due to human behavior, which means you may not see Covid spikes for a while yet. https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9e438ac18c.png?width=780&height=520&rect=1319x879&offset=36x0 https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9...
  - __blockcipher__ 7y ago
    This seems like an argument for letting states “reopen” then...
xienze 7y ago
> How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th? Parent is referring to weeks and weeks of predictions that Florida would be utterly decimated because of large Spring Break parties, taking a long time to shut down in the first place, beaches not closing down for a long time, etc. Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.
- take_a_breath 7y ago
  ==Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.== Almost the exact time most states started stay-at-home orders.
rburhum 7y ago
8 days? Hello from Peru! Where I have been in lockdown for 58 days straight and counting...
- kevinwang 7y ago
  The person you replied to is talking about NOT being on lockdown for the past 8 days.
- xienze 7y ago
  The eight days is in reference to Florida easing some lockdown restrictions. Most of the US has been under some sort of lockdown since mid to late March.
  - rburhum 7y ago
    With the military outside making sure you stay in or else you get arrested? Not sure my concept of lockdown is the same as yours.
    - Loughla 7y ago
      100% not that. It's more of a suggestion to stay at home. Restaurants and bars are closed to dine-in. Movie theaters and other fun things are closed. We 100% do not have military threatening arrest for going out. At this point, many (rural) police districts and politicians are even saying they won't enforce the stay-home orders anymore. So. Yeah. Not quite the same.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- jeffbarr 7y ago
  How are things in Peru, COVID-19 wise?? That's my wife's home country and she's not heard a lot about how well (or not) things are going.
  - rburhum 7y ago
lbeltrame 7y ago
> That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Two weeks is the period within > 99% cases exhibit symptoms. The median incubation is between 4 and 6 days.
- NotSammyHagar 7y ago
  But the spreading continues, and I can see it taking multiple generations to make a clear trend. It's not like in 2 weeks there are 10x more people, the R0 is not that high. You have to have enough to be noticeable compared to the previous visible amount.

prostoalex 7y ago

The reference is to all the spring break parties taking place two months ago https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-beaches-packed-despite-coronavirus-fears-as-spring-break-arrives/ https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-... Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place.

fullstop 7y ago
> Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place. How would we know? They are spread across the nation.
slg 7y ago
People on spring break are mostly young and the people they interact with while on spring break are mostly young. You would probably need to look at contacts two or three degrees away from them to notice the spike. Has there been an in depth analysis of the extended network of those people?
- prostoalex 7y ago
  But even that has a policy implication that stay-at-home order can exempt people of certain age.
  - slg 7y ago
    IANAL, but I imagine a stay-at-home order that is based on age would result in constitutional challenges.
    - tick_tock_tick 7y ago
      It's unlikely the current orders would survive any court scrutiny.
      - ceejayoz 7y ago
        Where are the emergency injunctions, then?
        harambaebae69 7y ago
        Alameda backed off elon musk pretty fast, probably because they had little legal footing https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-musk-wins-battle-with-alameda-county-tesla-factory-allowed-to-reopen/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-m...
  - greglindahl 7y ago
    If a young person goes to a nursing home and infects everyone, is it not connected to spring break unless the old people went to spring break? Keep in mind that the young person might be a medical worker, or in the family of a medical worker.
ceejayoz 7y ago
On 3/14 we had about 3k COVID-19 cases in the US. By the end of April, we had about 200k. Our contact tracing efforts at the time (and now) likely aren't sufficient to tie specific cases back to Florida's spring break, but it's unlikely to have helped.
- pashamur 7y ago
  We had 3k reported cases, not 3k cases. That's a large difference. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of cases from 3/14 was hundreds of thousands. There were 58 deaths reported by 3/14. If you assume that mortality is 1% (probably on the high side, but good enough for estimates), that translates to ~6k cases. However, since we know that deaths lag cases by 1-3 weeks (let's assume 2 weeks for the analysis), we should be looking at deaths two weeks from 3/14, which would be 3/28. By 3/28, there were ~3k deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the true estimate of the number of cases from 3/14 is likely around 270,000 cases (estimate range is 130K - 800K). This also means that there were about 8.5 million cases in the US on May 1st (I happen to think mortality is closer to 0.5%, so that would be ~17 million cases instead), and that we've most likely crossed the 10 (or 20) million case mark by now.
mistersquid 7y ago
> it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US and certainly wasn't during the weeks of US Spring Break (ca. mid-Mar)? In any case, you are mistaken that "we have not seen the spike take place". [0] See, especially, the map "generated by Tectonix GEO and X-Mode Social" about 1/3 of the way down the page. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-c...
- prostoalex 7y ago
  > What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US Plane tickets were bought, credit card spending took place, cell phone towers were pinged, hotel reservations had names linked to them, relatives, friends or colleagues aware of the whereabouts and can be interviewed post-mortem? For what it's worth, they're able to pinpoint specific parties or night club performances https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identifies-at-least-5-coronavirus-cases-from-single-birthday-party/ https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identif... https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-mayors-birthday-bash-at-trump-golf-club-leaves-partygoers-with-coronavirus/ https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-...
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
eloff 7y ago
We had a big spike in Quebec after spring break as people returned from Florida and France. The province is still the worst in Canada. BC took note and advised people not to travel for spring break (our break here is later). BC is doing very well by comparison.
- makomk 7y ago
  I'd be a lot more worried about the people returning from France than Florida, they've had a pretty major outbreak.

timdorr 7y ago

GA "opened up" salons on 4/24 and restaurants on 4/27. I say that with quotes since many places remain closed for dine-in service. Nonetheless, it's been 2 weeks and we've only seen a slight decrease in case rates: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavi... Meanwhile, our testing rates have shot up to the ~7500/day range and our positive test rate has gone from ~25% down to 13.2% today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVHnAav_zEKo77a4g263gBNIoM/edit#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVH...

cozzyd 7y ago
At least for Illinois, models predicted that a May 1 reopening would lead to a very large second peak in June with high probability. See e.g. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi.... It's more than 2-week lag time due to the time required for R_0 to increase (due to people's habits), a number of generations required to noticed, and the general lag time of the issues.
blamestross 7y ago
I think that is intentionally being manipulated. They are pushing for asymptomatic people to be tested in droves. The % is accurate but the biases in sampling don't make it an apples-to-apples comparison anymore.
leesec 7y ago
This graph shows that things will be slow even when 'reopened' due to human behavior, which means you may not see Covid spikes for a while yet. https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9e438ac18c.png?width=780&height=520&rect=1319x879&offset=36x0 https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9...
- __blockcipher__ 7y ago
  This seems like an argument for letting states “reopen” then...

xienze 7y ago

> How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th? Parent is referring to weeks and weeks of predictions that Florida would be utterly decimated because of large Spring Break parties, taking a long time to shut down in the first place, beaches not closing down for a long time, etc. Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.

take_a_breath 7y ago
==Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.== Almost the exact time most states started stay-at-home orders.

rburhum 7y ago

8 days? Hello from Peru! Where I have been in lockdown for 58 days straight and counting...

kevinwang 7y ago
The person you replied to is talking about NOT being on lockdown for the past 8 days.
xienze 7y ago
The eight days is in reference to Florida easing some lockdown restrictions. Most of the US has been under some sort of lockdown since mid to late March.
- rburhum 7y ago
  With the military outside making sure you stay in or else you get arrested? Not sure my concept of lockdown is the same as yours.
  - Loughla 7y ago
    100% not that. It's more of a suggestion to stay at home. Restaurants and bars are closed to dine-in. Movie theaters and other fun things are closed. We 100% do not have military threatening arrest for going out. At this point, many (rural) police districts and politicians are even saying they won't enforce the stay-home orders anymore. So. Yeah. Not quite the same.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
jeffbarr 7y ago
How are things in Peru, COVID-19 wise?? That's my wife's home country and she's not heard a lot about how well (or not) things are going.
- rburhum 7y ago

lbeltrame 7y ago

> That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Two weeks is the period within > 99% cases exhibit symptoms. The median incubation is between 4 and 6 days.

NotSammyHagar 7y ago
But the spreading continues, and I can see it taking multiple generations to make a clear trend. It's not like in 2 weeks there are 10x more people, the R0 is not that high. You have to have enough to be noticeable compared to the previous visible amount.