4 ms·

..or, business could open with the precautions they're taking and .. nothing happens. We see the same fatality rates, grow a little, lower a little, but general

..or, business could open with the precautions they're taking and .. nothing happens. We see the same fatality rates, grow a little, lower a little, but generally level off. It sucks it's come to this, but all of the states with lock-downs are desperately looking at states easing restrictions to see if these shelter in place orders are really worth it. We've heard that many of the people in NYC getting infected now are getting infected at home. I'm really hoping that Texas and Georgia, as they slowly open up, do not go over hospital capacities. We already know a number of people haven't gone to hospitals when they needed to; as many cut off access in preparation for a surge that never came. It's equally likely these states may not see a surge at all, even post re-opening. Yes, a lot of people may still die, but this virus is in the environment. A lot of those people would die either now, or six months from now. I don't understand how people can think complete eradication is even possible. You can't limit people's social contact forever. We are not laptops that can be placed on standby for a year or gears in a machine that can be stopped and oiled.

claudeganon 6y ago
Why do people insist on unnecessary mass deaths when we have examples of how to effectively respond to this disease in countries like South Korea and Taiwan without them? Why do people lean into this falsely-premised fatalism instead of demanding what has been proven to work?
- astronautjones 6y ago
  the same reason they promote slashing public programs, welfare, benefits
- davidw 6y ago
  I don't get the downvotes for the above comment. The "choice" between "stay at home forever" or "open all the things up" is a false one. If we do test/trace/isolate, and start requiring masks in enclosed spaces, we could start opening up in a fairly safe way.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    That would mean it's safe for Dallas to open up, since the state is doing test/trace/isolate and the city requires masks in enclosed spaces.
    - davidw 6y ago
      This site doesn't show Texas as really having the capacity to do that effectively, but it could be wrong or a bit out of date, as much is these days even if well-intentioned. https://testandtrace.com/ https://testandtrace.com/ Mark Cuban's article indicates that masks are not as prevalent as they ought to be.
      - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        This kind of site is a core example of why people are skeptical of the "false choice, we can open up responsibly" narrative. In practice, if a graphic designer makes a nice-looking chart where a state is red, that seems to be treated as a conclusive argument that opening up isn't responsible. The site doesn't appear to have any specific argument why Texas is wrong to think it can safely open up, just fixed numerical thresholds which Texas hasn't hit.
        davidw 6y ago
        Those thresholds seem reasonable to me. The fact that so many states are "red" on the map (not ready to reopen, not the political "red") is indicative that we wasted a lot of time in the US not getting ready. This failure is going to continue to cost us billions of dollars, to say nothing of lives lost.
    - JamesBarney 6y ago
      I don't know if its similar in Dallas but in Houston when I drive by gas stations, bars, and restaurants most people aren't wearing masks.
      - 6y ago
- z3rgl1ng 6y ago
  Seems to be because we can’t spin up testing.
Nbox9 6y ago
> I don't understand how people can think complete eradication is even possible. Eradication, to the point that contract tracing is a viable containment method, has been achieved by other countries. It is completely possible.
- twic 6y ago
  We're a long way from that being proven.
  - sanderjd 6y ago
    This is a strawman! You're right, nobody has shown eradication. But there are examples of control, with a straightforward set of techniques for getting there. It is difficult and requires competency to execute those techniques, but we should be coming together to do those difficult things and demanding competent execution of them from our leaders. There is really no excuse to do otherwise at this point, long after other countries have already done the work to cut through the uncertainty and demonstrate a much more successful approach. But we aren't doing this, we're instead bickering incessantly and fatalistically rationalizing a much worse outcome than necessary. It is a deep deep historical failure of leadership.
- djsumdog 6y ago
  So we're seeing two different methods: Sweden (and I guess soon, the UK and the rest of the world) taking measures to slow the spread, but realizing it will spread to everyone. South Kora, New Zealand, etc where they are going for complete elimination. Now ask yourself this ... when will South Korea or NZ be able to reopen their borders? They will have little to no immunity, so possibly not for a year or more.
  - justin66 6y ago
    > They will have little to no immunity, so possibly not for a year or more. That last bit is a moot point. Herd immunity is not something we aspire to here in the United States. Even if infection results in immunity, which has not been proven yet, the number of people infected in the US that would be needed for herd immunity would involve millions of people dying. > So we're seeing two different methods: Sweden (and I guess soon, the UK and the rest of the world) taking measures to slow the spread, but realizing it will spread to everyone. I expect that's a pretty cartoonish reading of Sweden's public policy. (The UK's public policy is cartoonish lately, but they've definitely backed away from "let's all get sick.")
twic 6y ago
> We've heard that many of the people in NYC getting infected now are getting infected at home. I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at, but there is a recent study showing that COVID cases correlate well with commuting in NYC - it's not the case that people who stay at home are getting infected just as much: https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42665370 https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42665370 (this site is down for me right now, but it was working earlier when i looked at the paper!)
aphextron 6y ago
>..or, business could open with the precautions they're taking and .. nothing happens. Maybe. But probably not. The fact that this decision is being made with zero preparation is terrifying. There is no PPE generally available. There are no contact tracing programs in place. There has been effectively zero federal response or any form of coherent strategy released. Hell, you can't even buy hand sanitizer in the stores again yet. Of course we can't live in isolation forever. But absolutely nothing has been done to make reopening any safer than we were two months ago. And saying "welp, let's hope it just goes away", with no safety measures in place, is going to mean hundreds of thousands of deaths.

claudeganon 6y ago

Why do people insist on unnecessary mass deaths when we have examples of how to effectively respond to this disease in countries like South Korea and Taiwan without them? Why do people lean into this falsely-premised fatalism instead of demanding what has been proven to work?

astronautjones 6y ago
the same reason they promote slashing public programs, welfare, benefits
davidw 6y ago
I don't get the downvotes for the above comment. The "choice" between "stay at home forever" or "open all the things up" is a false one. If we do test/trace/isolate, and start requiring masks in enclosed spaces, we could start opening up in a fairly safe way.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  That would mean it's safe for Dallas to open up, since the state is doing test/trace/isolate and the city requires masks in enclosed spaces.
  - davidw 6y ago
    This site doesn't show Texas as really having the capacity to do that effectively, but it could be wrong or a bit out of date, as much is these days even if well-intentioned. https://testandtrace.com/ https://testandtrace.com/ Mark Cuban's article indicates that masks are not as prevalent as they ought to be.
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      This kind of site is a core example of why people are skeptical of the "false choice, we can open up responsibly" narrative. In practice, if a graphic designer makes a nice-looking chart where a state is red, that seems to be treated as a conclusive argument that opening up isn't responsible. The site doesn't appear to have any specific argument why Texas is wrong to think it can safely open up, just fixed numerical thresholds which Texas hasn't hit.
      - davidw 6y ago
        Those thresholds seem reasonable to me. The fact that so many states are "red" on the map (not ready to reopen, not the political "red") is indicative that we wasted a lot of time in the US not getting ready. This failure is going to continue to cost us billions of dollars, to say nothing of lives lost.
  - JamesBarney 6y ago
    I don't know if its similar in Dallas but in Houston when I drive by gas stations, bars, and restaurants most people aren't wearing masks.
    - 6y ago
z3rgl1ng 6y ago
Seems to be because we can’t spin up testing.

Nbox9 6y ago

> I don't understand how people can think complete eradication is even possible. Eradication, to the point that contract tracing is a viable containment method, has been achieved by other countries. It is completely possible.

twic 6y ago
We're a long way from that being proven.
- sanderjd 6y ago
  This is a strawman! You're right, nobody has shown eradication. But there are examples of control, with a straightforward set of techniques for getting there. It is difficult and requires competency to execute those techniques, but we should be coming together to do those difficult things and demanding competent execution of them from our leaders. There is really no excuse to do otherwise at this point, long after other countries have already done the work to cut through the uncertainty and demonstrate a much more successful approach. But we aren't doing this, we're instead bickering incessantly and fatalistically rationalizing a much worse outcome than necessary. It is a deep deep historical failure of leadership.
djsumdog 6y ago
So we're seeing two different methods: Sweden (and I guess soon, the UK and the rest of the world) taking measures to slow the spread, but realizing it will spread to everyone. South Kora, New Zealand, etc where they are going for complete elimination. Now ask yourself this ... when will South Korea or NZ be able to reopen their borders? They will have little to no immunity, so possibly not for a year or more.
- justin66 6y ago
  > They will have little to no immunity, so possibly not for a year or more. That last bit is a moot point. Herd immunity is not something we aspire to here in the United States. Even if infection results in immunity, which has not been proven yet, the number of people infected in the US that would be needed for herd immunity would involve millions of people dying. > So we're seeing two different methods: Sweden (and I guess soon, the UK and the rest of the world) taking measures to slow the spread, but realizing it will spread to everyone. I expect that's a pretty cartoonish reading of Sweden's public policy. (The UK's public policy is cartoonish lately, but they've definitely backed away from "let's all get sick.")

twic 6y ago

> We've heard that many of the people in NYC getting infected now are getting infected at home. I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at, but there is a recent study showing that COVID cases correlate well with commuting in NYC - it's not the case that people who stay at home are getting infected just as much: https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42665370 https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42665370 (this site is down for me right now, but it was working earlier when i looked at the paper!)

aphextron 6y ago

>..or, business could open with the precautions they're taking and .. nothing happens. Maybe. But probably not. The fact that this decision is being made with zero preparation is terrifying. There is no PPE generally available. There are no contact tracing programs in place. There has been effectively zero federal response or any form of coherent strategy released. Hell, you can't even buy hand sanitizer in the stores again yet. Of course we can't live in isolation forever. But absolutely nothing has been done to make reopening any safer than we were two months ago. And saying "welp, let's hope it just goes away", with no safety measures in place, is going to mean hundreds of thousands of deaths.