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Air travel is going to be very bad, for a very long time
- moron4hire 6y agoIf the post-9/11 hysteria is any indication, it will never get better.
- analognoise 6y agoThat's what I don't get. 9/11 caused us to embark on a 20 year war effort. This is like a 9/11 every other day, but it's over and we should all get back to work to keep the economy going - what?
- tartuffe78 6y agoIt might be that we respond more rationally to health crises than we do to terrorism.
- WJW 6y agoWho would you declare on? Nature for evolving new viruses every few years? Some people really want to blame China, but it's not as easy to invade a global superpower with a permanent seat on the UN security council, nuclear weapons and super intricate ties to the world's economy as it is to invade a few underdeveloped countries in the middle east with barely any air force.
- nl 6y agoI don't think that comment is a call for war or anything like that. They are expressing amazement at those saying "it's all fine - lets go back to normal". The "9/11 everyday" is referring to the daily death toll (it's slightly lower now, but the point is well made).
- analognoise 6y agoYeah I definitely wasn't calling for war or anything of the sort.
- rjsw 6y agoJust copy 9/11, invade a country that borders China /s.
- moron4hire 6y agoIf you apply the principle of "assuming good faith", then the GP is clearly taking about spending and mobilization of effort. And I agree. The US government has been negligent in their response to the pandemic.
- unishark 6y agoAs a longtime germophobe, who is quite sure I have caught trip-ruining flu's and colds on multiple occasions from inconsiderate passengers on flights, hysteria could lead to some real improvements this time. Screening of sick passengers, extreme filtering of recirculated air, roomier airports rather than packing a dozen gates 12 feet apart at the end of the building (LAX), and while I'm dreaming, some social distancing between seats. They can make everyone wear full-on gas masks the entire trip. Still working on how to deal with bathrooms. At the very least, airlines can change those shitty change/refund policies that keep people from delaying their trip when they get sick.
- MattGaiser 6y agoPeople are treating the pandemic as over where I am. They are having friends over, booking cruises, ignoring distancing in grocery stores, etc. Plenty of social media chatter about bargain air tickets for August. Carnival is reporting a 200% surge in bookings over August 2019. https://www.fastcompany.com/90503385/what-pandemic-carnival-cruise-bookings-soar-600-for-august-trips https://www.fastcompany.com/90503385/what-pandemic-carnival-... You ask them about it and they say that the pandemic is an old person's problem. "if I get corona" guy has lots of friends it seems.
- Gravityloss 6y agoWhere are you located?
- MattGaiser 6y agoCalgary, in Canada. My social network is heavily out of Toronto, Canada.
- chrisseaton 6y ago> Carnival is reporting 200% surge in bookings over August 2019. Aside from everything else, this is insane. I’d never ever go on a cruise. Some people were held on cruise ships for a month or more weren’t they?
- MattGaiser 6y ago> Some people were held on cruise ships for a month or more weren’t they? Depends on when you start counting, but yes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_P...
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
- sheeshkebab 6y agogermaphobery in overdrive...
- lifeisstillgood 6y agoThe simple answer is, enclosed spaces breathing strangers exhalations are going to be very risky till we hit vaccine / herd immunity. Will your business insurance cover that?
- _Microft 6y agoHerd immunity is an illusion. It would require that around 70% of people had been infected already. Using the USA as example: 70% of 328 million would be 230 million people. At a rate of 20000 new infections a day, as it currently is, it would take approximately 11000 days to reach that. That's 32 years. Let us assume ten times this rate was possible and this would still mean over three years. We do not even know yet if people will stay immune for an extended period of time at all after having gone through the illness. All this still ignores that even in a country like Germany that dealt pretty well with the situation so far, the death rate is at approximately 4%. 4% of 230 million people means 9.2 million would die. This also ignored any lasting damages to lungs, heart, nervous system and kidneys as they have been reported. There will be no herd immunity as long as the disease progresses as it currently does.
- umanwizard 6y agoThe low rate of spread is due to lockdowns. Once things start opening back up, herd immunity will happen quickly. I don’t understand the rest of your post. Why does the fact that herd immunity will cause deaths and other health effects mean that it’s not going to happen? (Edit: also, I don’t think it’s relevant, but FWIW that 4% number is CFR, not IFR. The best estimates of the true death rate are under 1%.)
- arvidj 6y agoThe rate of infection you refer to is probably the rate of detected infections. The true infection rate is probably higher. What else do you suggest than herd immunity? The only other solutions I see is containing the virus, which is very hard at this point, or developing a vaccine, which will also take some time.
- lifeisstillgood 6y ago
- tonyedgecombe 6y agoI stopped flying about 18 years ago, mostly because I was taking too much business travel but also due to the environmental impacts and general unpleasantness of it all. I've never regretted that decision.
- pluc 6y agoYou mean it was good at some point?
- ghaff 6y agoHonestly, pre the current situation, it wasn't bad if you spent the money. Enrolled in whatever priority security and immigration is available, airline clubs, business/first class seating. It's (mostly) unpleasant if you're trying to save money. And, yes, if you go back a few decades, planes were generally less crowded, there was less security, etc. Though, in some respects, travel is actually more comfortable today if you spend the money.
- unishark 6y agoWell when you get a whole row to yourself and sleep through an entire overnight international flight you were expecting to be hell.
- frankbreetz 6y agoSeems like an obvious time to invest in long distance passenger train infrastructure. Speaking for my self personally I would rather take a longer more comfortable train ride, then a plane ride anyway. Construction of train system would help the economy, emissions go down, less cars on the road. Everyone wins. This is another area the US is behind the rest of the world on.
- sokoloff 6y agoA mile and a half of road/rail takes you a mile and a half. A mile and a half of runway takes you anywhere, including over oceans. I don’t see rail as a particularly viable replacement for air in the US. Intercity Europe for 200-300 miles? Sure; it’s great. 2000 miles across the US? No thanks.
- mytherin 6y agoThe majority of flights in the US are relatively short distance. The top ten most popular flights in the US are [1]: 1. LA to NYC (2800 miles) 2. SF to LA (350 miles) 3. NYC to Chicago (800 miles) 4. LA to Chicago (2000 miles) 5. Atlanta to Orlando (440 miles) 6. LA to Las Vegas (270 miles) 7. LA to Seattle (1100 miles) 8. Denver to LA (1000 miles) 9. Atlanta to NYC (850 miles) 10. Atlanta to Fort Lauderdale (640 miles) Many of those flights would benefit from a high speed rail connection. Modern high speed trains can travel at around half the speed of passenger planes, and save around 2~ hours traveling to/from the airport, checking in, security checks and boarding. That means the break even point in terms of time is around 800~1000 miles. Anything below that and a modern high speed trains are faster than airplanes. That means that high speed trains are a competitive (and for many, faster) alternative to 8 of the 10 most popular flight routes in the US. On those lines alone, they can replace ~200K flights per year in the US. They are also generally much more comfortable, because space and weight is much cheaper on trains than it is on airplanes. Another very important consideration here is that we know how to make sustainable train travel; we have no idea how to make sustainable passenger air travel. [1] https://www.airfarewatchdog.com/blog/44259160/these-are-the-10-busiest-air-routes-in-the-u-s/ https://www.airfarewatchdog.com/blog/44259160/these-are-the-...
- Kifot 6y agoWhat I can't wrap my head around: how is being packed with 100s of people inside of a plane a few times a year seen as more dangerous than being even more packed with even more people in the metro every day during commute? I feel like the risk of getting infected in public transport is undermined comparing to planes/hotels/restaurants.
- itsspring 6y agoNot every city has a metro so this is apples vs oranges? You’re right, it’s just not clear who you’re talking to.
- Kifot 6y agoOh that's right, what I meant is that probably a huge part of people traveling by plane comes from big cities where there is little to no way to avoid being squeezed with other people on a daily basis
- MattGaiser 6y agoIs anyone packing into metros anymore? I doubt this pandemic will be good for public transit.
- madaxe_again 6y agoYeah. See the pictures of the tube in London, today - people crammed in like sardines, as per usual.
- umanwizard 6y agoThey will be once things open back up. In non-car-centric cities there simply isn’t any other realistic way to get to work.
- dredmorbius 6y agoBicycles, for many.
- 6y ago
- keiferski 6y agoNo matter what the topic, there seems to be no market for writing articles about minor changes or slight adjustments. The world is always ending, there is always an impossible deadline, and the worst possible projection is absolutely the most likely one. This state of affairs is a consequence of the usual culprit: advertising. Society/the media needs to develop a new business model, and fast. In reality, airlines will probably have a tough year or two, airports will adopt some new health measures, and things will mostly continue as they were before.
- ABeeSea 6y agoI think this is overly optimistic. I used to fly regularly and I have no intention of getting on a plane anytime in the next couple years. Maybe we will take a road trip in a year or two, but the idea of getting in a plane is completely out of the question for the foreseeable future.
- grey-area 6y agoWhat if a vaccine is developed, wouldn't that make flying more palatable again?
- metalliqaz 6y agothe timeline for a vaccine lines up with his time estimation, "next couple of years"
- ralphstodomingo 6y agoI don't know about you, but while flying may start to be come more palatable over time once a vaccine is developed, my priorities have changed a lot over this situation that I'd put casual, international travel somewhere below my list.
- grey-area 6y agoIf I were confident that I wouldn't catch it, and wouldn't pass it on to others, I'd have no trouble flying just now. I suspect most airlines are going to go through bankruptcy, but those which emerge may get back to flying normally next summer, it depends how the disease progresses this year and what treatments are devised.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 6y agoContrarian opinion. Air travel may actually get better for the first time in decades. Ever since 9/11, there was a steady decline in comfort of regular passengers. Now airlines actually have to court those few remaining passengers. I fully expect to see of the room to come back ( even if it is with a fee ).
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- binarymax 6y agoI agree with this - fares should increase by 3x at a minimum, more room given to passengers, and way way way more focus on customer service. While what’s going on is terrible, personally I’m much happier that I don’t need to get on a flight every couple weeks. We’re finally realizing that being in the same room for certain meetings offers little value when compared to the cost of personal and environmental health incurred by a flight. Remember 3 months ago when everyone was worried about global warming? We really need to take this as a forced opportunity to actually do something about it. We should not return to “normal” because normal was disastrous for the environment.
- bbv-if 6y agoWhat you say sounds more like "to hell with those beggars who can barely afford current fees. Air travel should become a luxury as it used to be in the past". Go buy a ticket in business class if you want a better service and leg room. It also goes with that warm "I'm better than the tramps several rows behind" feeling.
- metalliqaz 6y agoFlying on planes isn't a right. If planes are going to be empty anyway, and the ticket prices have to go up anyway, the airlines may as well differentiate themselves with better customer service. Sheesh. I'm a lefty too but not everything has to be class warfare.
- amelius 6y agoWell, perhaps flying should be unpleasant, given its negative externalities.
- exabrial 6y agoI really wish as consumers we could just pay the actual cost for air travel, rather than it being hid in smoke through all sorts of subsidies.
- sesuximo 6y agoTo "pay the actual cost" you'd need to get rid of subsidies and the financial instruments/overhead that airlines have. without these things airlines would go out of business even more often than they already do
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- bencoder 6y agoI feel like there's a huge amount of delayed demand. A lot of people I know are pretty desperate to travel as soon as it's safe to do so (without quarantine after each leg). I don't think demand will take such a huge hit. It just depends on whether the airline industry can ramp up supply again quickly or if it will take a long time. But I could just be in a bubble of people who still have jobs and I suppose that might all change as the true economic effects settle in
- znpy 6y agoYeah shit's fucked up and stuff. When will we just start telling people "deal with it" ?
- smileysteve 6y agoThe article mentions Zoom, but a major change is going to be in on-site sales, contracting, and representation. Much like commercial office space, companies have just paid all of the fixed costs for remote work, their employees have adapted their home offices. Before, you were paying a global consulting firm to fly to your office to have an occasional meeting with your employees up to 3 days a week; now you get 5 days a week, no flight or hotel expenses, and 60+% of your employees are happier and more productive.
- NikolaNovak 6y agoI understand this is asked every time, but honestly in the 2 months of Covid19 and 20 years of post-9/11, I still haven't seen an answer that makes sense: Why are we obsessing over airplane security so much, but completely ignoring ground transportation? Never mind Metro/Subway/Underground, which we can claim not every city has (I'd still imagine total number of subway passengers daily outweighs airplane passengers or is at least comparable) - what about buses? Trains? Street cars and trams? Any airplane I've ever flown had better filtering and circulation, more spacing and better hygiene, than any bus I've ever ridden in. Every airport terminal was more spacious than every indoors bus or train terminal. Across countries and continents this ratio has held true. So why this obsession with airplanes as the vulnerable part of the equation? Is it all just... human inability to calculate risks and our focus on the "flashy"? I've done 50-75 flights a year over last 10 years; none last 2 months obviously, and I don't foresee any soon; but I'm DEFINITELY not going to take our friendly neighbourhood Toronto subway if I can help it, as much as it's the key to fighting traffic and pollution. This should be throwing our entire transportation industry into disarray and restart fundamental discussions about urban planning and urban landscaping of the future... and yet I only ever see the airline industry mentioned.
- ajsnigrutin 6y ago> Is it all just... human inability to calculate risks and our focus on the "flashy"? I think this ^ Plus, on the ground we think we have control... someone sick comes on the bus, we think we can 'escape' from the bus on that (or next) station. Same with general safety.... if you drive a car, you think you're invincible, and that your superpower reflexes and supersenses will predict anything happening around you, and you'll be able to avoid any accident... but on a plane, engines stop working, and there's literally nothing you can do, sometimes for many minutes until you (probably) crash and die. Of course, statistics show different safety numbers, but for most people, statistics is about "them" and not "us".
- hartator 6y agoAirplanes are private so the authoritarian left is happy over regulated them. Buses and trains are usually public, so no one dares talking bad about them.
- drewg123 6y agoI honestly think there are 2 ways this can go. Either very badly, or very nicely. If the airlines insist on running full planes, then things are going to suck, and its going to take a long time for them to recover. Nobody is going to want to be smashed up against a stranger for seconds, much less hours on end. And if people fear this, no amount of procedures are going to change there minds. If the airlines decide to continue blocking off the middle seat and raise prices to compensate, then this could wind up making flying much more pleasant.