3 ms·
One interesting possibility is that the people most likely to get infected (different from most vulnerable if infected) are going to get infected this first rou
by war1025 6y ago
One interesting possibility is that the people most likely to get infected (different from most vulnerable if infected) are going to get infected this first round.
What that potentially means is that they will act as effectively a fire-break for the broader population.
Basically a burning of the highest throughput avenues for mass spread.
If true, that would mean we get lots of localized outbreaks, but the probability of that spreading back out into an uncontrolled pandemic is much lower.
- bavell 6y agoVery insightful, hadn't considered that! I'm not sure how effective this 'firebreak' will be in practice but it will certainly slow the spread to some degree.
- shibeouya 6y agoThere are recent research papers supporting that theory, and lowering the threshold for herd immunity much lower to 30-40% If that is the case then places like NYC are probably pretty close.
- ethbro 6y agoAny links?
- nate_meurer 6y agohttps://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085 https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085 - The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v... - Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold This effect will be amplified if the initial vaccinations are given (as they should be) to the potential superspreaders, like healthcare workers and essential manual laborers.