3 ms·
> The question is if treatment capacity is overwhelmed. It eventually will be if R0 is greater 1.0. The government's position is that it needs to stay below on
by this_user 6y ago
> The question is if treatment capacity is overwhelmed.
It eventually will be if R0 is greater 1.0. The government's position is that it needs to stay below one. The official metric to that effect is the number of new infections per 100,000 people. If it crosses above 50 for any administrative district, lockdown measures ought to be tightened. As of today, there are four above that threshold.
- corty 6y agoR_0 is always above 1, or the virus wouldn't even exist in the first place. You mean R_eff
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- baobabKoodaa 6y agoYou have misunderstood what R0 and R_effective mean. R0 certainly can, and often does, go below 1. The only difference between R0 and R_effective is that R0 assumes everyone in the population is suaceptible to the virus.
- moduspol 6y agoIt won't if we reach herd immunity, which is when this will end regardless of containment attempts.
- KarlKemp 6y agoI’m amazed how this idea seems to endure, even in the face of dozens of countries showing reductions of 90%+ (Italy, Spain, Germany, Austria, Australia, Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, South Korea, France, etc) or even complete elimination (China, NZ). Just because the US and UK can’t get their act together doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
- moduspol 6y agoIt's not over until those countries' policies are back to how they were prior to the outbreak (borders open, travel allowed, no lockdowns). Until then, it's just hoping for the best for when they do.
- tinus_hn 6y agoUnfortunately this requires either indefinite lockdowns or indefinite suspension of international travel. What’s the point of eliminating 90% of infections if that remaining 10% is going to develop into a new outbreak? China is still finding new cases so it isn’t eliminated. New Zealand can keep the virus out because it’s an island (but they better be prepared to live without tourism). It’s all just not very sustainable.
- baobabKoodaa 6y agoIf you have efficient testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures in place, you may be able to quell any resurfacing outbreaks.