4 ms·

Respectfully, these are just your suppositions, unless you have some evidence to the contrary. In every case I cited, there is no scientific consensus about wha

Respectfully, these are just your suppositions, unless you have some evidence to the contrary. In every case I cited, there is no scientific consensus about what’s actually happening. I’m not sure why people can’t seem to fathom that we are still very early in our understanding and experience of this disease, no matter how dramatic its consequences thus far. There’s no way to accelerate things through false confidence or other forms of denialism.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
As I've discussed elsewhere, there is indeed evidence to the contrary. There's also no way to decelerate things through false humility. We're in an urgent crisis, so we must make decisions now based on whatever evidence is available; there's no position of safety we can retreat to while waiting to learn more.
- claudeganon 6y ago
  So provide a sliver of this evidence. You keep alluding to it, but your story doesn’t correspond to the CDC’s own statements, nor the initial review of coronavirus immunity durations I linked.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    What kind of evidence are you looking for? I can point you to public health authorities saying immunity works and lasts for ~a year [1][2], but I suspect you've seen these statements already. If you're looking for a scientific study unambiguously proving it, we of course won't be able to have that until a year has passed. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-fauci-those-who-recover-will-be-immune-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-fauci-those-who-... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52446965 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52446965
bigtechdataeng 6y ago
- Bayesian interpretation would use what we do know about viruses in general, coronavirus specifically, anD sars/Mers as the prior. Has anyone here done the research that we can use as a reasonable prior? My assumption was those diseases all produce long lasting antibodies.
- claudeganon 6y ago
  An initial review of immunity/reinfections with coronaviruses suggests we shouldn’t be optimistic about the duration of immunity: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long...

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

As I've discussed elsewhere, there is indeed evidence to the contrary. There's also no way to decelerate things through false humility. We're in an urgent crisis, so we must make decisions now based on whatever evidence is available; there's no position of safety we can retreat to while waiting to learn more.

claudeganon 6y ago
So provide a sliver of this evidence. You keep alluding to it, but your story doesn’t correspond to the CDC’s own statements, nor the initial review of coronavirus immunity durations I linked.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  What kind of evidence are you looking for? I can point you to public health authorities saying immunity works and lasts for ~a year [1][2], but I suspect you've seen these statements already. If you're looking for a scientific study unambiguously proving it, we of course won't be able to have that until a year has passed. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-fauci-those-who-recover-will-be-immune-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-fauci-those-who-... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52446965 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52446965

bigtechdataeng 6y ago

- Bayesian interpretation would use what we do know about viruses in general, coronavirus specifically, anD sars/Mers as the prior. Has anyone here done the research that we can use as a reasonable prior? My assumption was those diseases all produce long lasting antibodies.

claudeganon 6y ago
An initial review of immunity/reinfections with coronaviruses suggests we shouldn’t be optimistic about the duration of immunity: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long...