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There are huge implications. Think about real estate - the demand to build new homes. That could impact millions of people in their employment. Think about syst

There are huge implications. Think about real estate - the demand to build new homes. That could impact millions of people in their employment. Think about systems like Social Security, where a large young working class pays for the retired class. There is a trend followed very closely in robotics about the number of elderly people per worker. The larger that ratio gets, the more we'll need robots. And not in 30 years -- in 15 years. We need to support the baby boomers. They'll be 70+ in 7 years. It's even worse in Japan. The cultural landscape will also change significantly. The Muslim minorities might not be minorities for long. This is a change of epic proportions.

ajross 18y ago
Relax. A slowdown in birth rates is a temporary disturbance (the opposite of the baby boom, in fact). Over time, society returns to a steady state. Yes, the finances get complicated, and we're looking at a generation or two that may see substandard retirement income. But it's hardly a huge social problem; three generations back we were looking at every generation having no retirement income. And the "muslim minority" stuff is just alarmist (and, frankly, semi-racist) political spin. Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society, with at most a unique subculture. This is true of all cultures. They're malleable. No one freaks out (here in the US) about the Polish Menace any more, nor about what all those greasy catholics (!) are going to do to our society, nor about all that lucre under the control of The Jew, nor about what will happen if we allow those awful Blacks to wed (!) our pure, white daughters. Do you see the point? In 50 years, all this "ZOMG Muslims!" mania is going to look equally dumb. If all that scary stuff didn't kill us, what are a few muslims going to accomplish? :) The saddest thing is how many of the people freaking out over things like muslim immigration (or, here in the US, mexicans) are grandchildren of people who saw exactly the same kind of discrimination.
- akd 18y ago
  > Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society. Excuse me? Black people are culturally indistinguishable from white people in the USA? And the whole miscegenation thing is still very real; try to name some onscreen romances between blacks and whites, and witness the backlash against the Super Bowl ad with Terrell Owens and a white woman.
- thewatcher 18y ago
  > And the "muslim minority" stuff is just alarmist (and, frankly, semi-racist) political spin. Islam is not a race. > Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society Where are you from? This has not been the case with Muslims in Europe at large. > Do you see the point? In 50 years, all this "ZOMG Muslims!" mania is going to look equally dumb. If all that scary stuff didn't kill us, what are a few muslims going to accomplish? How much do you know about Islam and its history? Islam and the Western culture are fundamentally incompatible.
  - ajross 18y ago
    You miss the point. A few generations back there was no "western culture". There were protestants (here in the US, the "good guys") and the Other People: catholics and jews, who didn't share "our" values. They were fundamentally incompatible with our culture, and didn't belong here. The same is true now, it's just the faces that have changed. I know quite a few muslims, actually, of varying levels of religious devotion and professional development. You might be surprised to learn that none of them are terrorists or militants. I dare say I know more about Islam than you do, honestly.
    - kingkongrevenge 18y ago
      > A few generations back there was no "western culture". Huh? Try as far back as the Gallic Wars. There has been a concept of The West for over 1500 years. You are aware of the Crusades?
  - johnyzee 18y ago
    > > Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society > Where are you from? This has not been the case with Muslims in Europe at large. Premature. The third generation is generally less than ten years old at this point.
  - wallflower 18y ago
    > They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society False. I rode a bike around Brussels, Belgium. To see the famous Comic book/Tin Tin murals. I got lost. It was scary to venture into the Muslim/Asian ghettos (ghetto defined here as a location in a city where a minority group lives because of social, economic, or legal pressures). I definitely felt like an outsider (and cursed not having a GPS). The opposite of a touristy-area.
- cousin_it 18y ago
  > Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. In the US, yes. In Europe it's the other way around. First generation immigrants work, second generation becomes antisocial and militant. Look at France. > This is true of all cultures. They're malleable. Definition of "malleable": can be flattened by hammering.
- DanielBMarkham 18y ago
  This sounds to me like you're making a speech regarding the current silliness of popular opinion rather than the points in question. Once we set up social institutions (like Social Security in the states, for instance) we make certain assumptions about the way the population numbers are going to behave. If we're wrong, or in the case of the U.S. if we keep making promises we can't keep, then those social contracts become null and void. That's a huge implication for the average citizen. I'd even use the word "crisis". The Japan-medical-robot story in particular is interesting, as it follows along with the general meme of building our way out of our problems. I'm a huge fan of immigration from all corners, but having said that I'm not sure if replacing, say, 50% of your country's population is such a good thing for all of those social promises you made -- the new management might have much different ideas of what is equitable and what isn't. So yes, having less kids is a big problem for the Europeans. It's not the end of mankind, but I'm not sure it was played up as such, was it?
  - ajross 18y ago
    > if we keep making promises we can't keep, then those social contracts become null and void. Well, sure, I guess. Or, you know, we could just pay people 80% of what they expected and call it even. That number is actually about right for a minimum payout if you look at the demographics, after that the baby boom will be out of the system and we'll be back at a steady state. Is that really a crisis? It's certainly not a "null and void" social security policy. There seems to be an argument coming from some segments of society (interestingly, identical with the ones that want to eliminate the social security entitlement) that it we can't pay every penny of the social security obligations that ZOMGWTF the system will collapse. It's just not true. We'll manage. "Null and void" indeed.
    - DanielBMarkham 18y ago
      So if I owe you a hundred bucks and give you 80, our contract was valid, right? You got two choices: either I kept my promise or I didn't. Now we can argue that I "tried" to do the right thing, but by any account you would be quite reasonable in calling me a liar. It might not mean a lot to you or me, but to a lot of people 80% of a promise is no promise at all -- especially folks on fixed incomes who are unable to work for themselves. But once again, we're not talking the merits of the points made, just some possible hyperbole in my response.
- ivankirigin 18y ago
  Europe has had a dominant christian majority for many hundreds of years. The rise of another majority, with a strong atheist minority means huge cultural and anthropological changes are afoot. It isn't racist to point this out. It's race baiting to call every comment dealing with race or religion racist. It actually betrays a good bit of naivete about the history of the world to think such changes don't matter. And you clearly underestimate the effects of an aging population. Look at the numbers. They are staggering.
- kingkongrevenge 18y ago
  > Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. False. Native Americans and Hispanics do not fully assimilate in the United State, ever. We have five generations of data. Globally there are many other examples. In fact, the data show that after the third generation Hispanic educational attainment regresses. You cannot compare what's happening now to the past experience in the US of assimilating waves of western European ethnicities. At the very least there's the critical difference of very long periods of virtually zero immigration in the past. > In 50 years, all this "ZOMG Muslims!" mania is going to look equally dumb. In France in the 1890s there was a bunch of alarmism about how the German birthrate was so much higher and this posed a big threat. Of course, it all blew over and Germany never ever bothered France again and the alarmists looked dumb. > No one freaks out (here in the US) about the Polish Menace any more, nor about what all those greasy catholics... There is a certain fundamental incompatibility between The West and Islam. There are a lot of Hindus in the West, you know, and nobody really has big issues with them. The comparison to Catholic immigration is ridiculous. You can sing "It's a Small World" all you want, but back here in the real world there are deep differences between cultures.
  - silverlake 18y ago
    There are deep difference with fundamentalist Islam, which is a relatively small minority of all Muslims in the West. In the US, we have the same deep differences with fundamentalist Christians. It the "fundamentalism" that is the problem, but it comes and goes in history.

ajross 18y ago

Relax. A slowdown in birth rates is a temporary disturbance (the opposite of the baby boom, in fact). Over time, society returns to a steady state. Yes, the finances get complicated, and we're looking at a generation or two that may see substandard retirement income. But it's hardly a huge social problem; three generations back we were looking at every generation having no retirement income. And the "muslim minority" stuff is just alarmist (and, frankly, semi-racist) political spin. Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society, with at most a unique subculture. This is true of all cultures. They're malleable. No one freaks out (here in the US) about the Polish Menace any more, nor about what all those greasy catholics (!) are going to do to our society, nor about all that lucre under the control of The Jew, nor about what will happen if we allow those awful Blacks to wed (!) our pure, white daughters. Do you see the point? In 50 years, all this "ZOMG Muslims!" mania is going to look equally dumb. If all that scary stuff didn't kill us, what are a few muslims going to accomplish? :) The saddest thing is how many of the people freaking out over things like muslim immigration (or, here in the US, mexicans) are grandchildren of people who saw exactly the same kind of discrimination.

akd 18y ago
> Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society. Excuse me? Black people are culturally indistinguishable from white people in the USA? And the whole miscegenation thing is still very real; try to name some onscreen romances between blacks and whites, and witness the backlash against the Super Bowl ad with Terrell Owens and a white woman.
thewatcher 18y ago
> And the "muslim minority" stuff is just alarmist (and, frankly, semi-racist) political spin. Islam is not a race. > Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society Where are you from? This has not been the case with Muslims in Europe at large. > Do you see the point? In 50 years, all this "ZOMG Muslims!" mania is going to look equally dumb. If all that scary stuff didn't kill us, what are a few muslims going to accomplish? How much do you know about Islam and its history? Islam and the Western culture are fundamentally incompatible.
- ajross 18y ago
  You miss the point. A few generations back there was no "western culture". There were protestants (here in the US, the "good guys") and the Other People: catholics and jews, who didn't share "our" values. They were fundamentally incompatible with our culture, and didn't belong here. The same is true now, it's just the faces that have changed. I know quite a few muslims, actually, of varying levels of religious devotion and professional development. You might be surprised to learn that none of them are terrorists or militants. I dare say I know more about Islam than you do, honestly.
  - kingkongrevenge 18y ago
    > A few generations back there was no "western culture". Huh? Try as far back as the Gallic Wars. There has been a concept of The West for over 1500 years. You are aware of the Crusades?
- johnyzee 18y ago
  > > Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society > Where are you from? This has not been the case with Muslims in Europe at large. Premature. The third generation is generally less than ten years old at this point.
- wallflower 18y ago
  > They become culturally indistinguishable from the overall society False. I rode a bike around Brussels, Belgium. To see the famous Comic book/Tin Tin murals. I got lost. It was scary to venture into the Muslim/Asian ghettos (ghetto defined here as a location in a city where a minority group lives because of social, economic, or legal pressures). I definitely felt like an outsider (and cursed not having a GPS). The opposite of a touristy-area.
cousin_it 18y ago
> Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. In the US, yes. In Europe it's the other way around. First generation immigrants work, second generation becomes antisocial and militant. Look at France. > This is true of all cultures. They're malleable. Definition of "malleable": can be flattened by hammering.
DanielBMarkham 18y ago
This sounds to me like you're making a speech regarding the current silliness of popular opinion rather than the points in question. Once we set up social institutions (like Social Security in the states, for instance) we make certain assumptions about the way the population numbers are going to behave. If we're wrong, or in the case of the U.S. if we keep making promises we can't keep, then those social contracts become null and void. That's a huge implication for the average citizen. I'd even use the word "crisis". The Japan-medical-robot story in particular is interesting, as it follows along with the general meme of building our way out of our problems. I'm a huge fan of immigration from all corners, but having said that I'm not sure if replacing, say, 50% of your country's population is such a good thing for all of those social promises you made -- the new management might have much different ideas of what is equitable and what isn't. So yes, having less kids is a big problem for the Europeans. It's not the end of mankind, but I'm not sure it was played up as such, was it?
- ajross 18y ago
  > if we keep making promises we can't keep, then those social contracts become null and void. Well, sure, I guess. Or, you know, we could just pay people 80% of what they expected and call it even. That number is actually about right for a minimum payout if you look at the demographics, after that the baby boom will be out of the system and we'll be back at a steady state. Is that really a crisis? It's certainly not a "null and void" social security policy. There seems to be an argument coming from some segments of society (interestingly, identical with the ones that want to eliminate the social security entitlement) that it we can't pay every penny of the social security obligations that ZOMGWTF the system will collapse. It's just not true. We'll manage. "Null and void" indeed.
  - DanielBMarkham 18y ago
    So if I owe you a hundred bucks and give you 80, our contract was valid, right? You got two choices: either I kept my promise or I didn't. Now we can argue that I "tried" to do the right thing, but by any account you would be quite reasonable in calling me a liar. It might not mean a lot to you or me, but to a lot of people 80% of a promise is no promise at all -- especially folks on fixed incomes who are unable to work for themselves. But once again, we're not talking the merits of the points made, just some possible hyperbole in my response.
ivankirigin 18y ago
Europe has had a dominant christian majority for many hundreds of years. The rise of another majority, with a strong atheist minority means huge cultural and anthropological changes are afoot. It isn't racist to point this out. It's race baiting to call every comment dealing with race or religion racist. It actually betrays a good bit of naivete about the history of the world to think such changes don't matter. And you clearly underestimate the effects of an aging population. Look at the numbers. They are staggering.
kingkongrevenge 18y ago
> Past the third generation, minorities stop being minorities. False. Native Americans and Hispanics do not fully assimilate in the United State, ever. We have five generations of data. Globally there are many other examples. In fact, the data show that after the third generation Hispanic educational attainment regresses. You cannot compare what's happening now to the past experience in the US of assimilating waves of western European ethnicities. At the very least there's the critical difference of very long periods of virtually zero immigration in the past. > In 50 years, all this "ZOMG Muslims!" mania is going to look equally dumb. In France in the 1890s there was a bunch of alarmism about how the German birthrate was so much higher and this posed a big threat. Of course, it all blew over and Germany never ever bothered France again and the alarmists looked dumb. > No one freaks out (here in the US) about the Polish Menace any more, nor about what all those greasy catholics... There is a certain fundamental incompatibility between The West and Islam. There are a lot of Hindus in the West, you know, and nobody really has big issues with them. The comparison to Catholic immigration is ridiculous. You can sing "It's a Small World" all you want, but back here in the real world there are deep differences between cultures.
- silverlake 18y ago
  There are deep difference with fundamentalist Islam, which is a relatively small minority of all Muslims in the West. In the US, we have the same deep differences with fundamentalist Christians. It the "fundamentalism" that is the problem, but it comes and goes in history.