5 ms·
Upward or downward?
by wobbly99 6y ago
Upward or downward?
- three_seagrass 6y agoI would say downward because it's decreasing the demand to be close to these giant tech company campuses, but the bay area housing market has and always seems to defy typical economic patterns for housing. Throw in unemployment and upcoming inflation with the fed cash dump, and it's still very unpredictable.
- chrisseaton 6y agoBut at the same time people will want nicer homes as they're spending more time in them... I guess people living without gardens are pretty stressed right now.
- three_seagrass 6y agoPeople are not buying nicer homes for a temporary shutdown. I have coworkers video conferencing from a desk in a closet and don't care.
- ghaff 6y agoThe question though is about a "new normal" where people work from home a large chunk of the time--and, yes, if your apartment isn't just a place you sleep I think that affects the decision-making of a lot of people about where they live. I don't really see coworkers videoconferencing from closets but, then, most of us aren't in unusually high CoL areas.
- untog 6y agoCounterpoint: I'm a parent and I very much care. I won't be moving to the suburbs tomorrow but it has us asking questions about our ideal life: if we're not taking the subway into the office every day then maybe city life isn't quite as worth it.
- three_seagrass 6y agoCounterpoint: Would you take out a new 30-yr mortgage right now to buy a home in the suburbs? Then why aren't you? That's my point.
- chrisseaton 6y agoHmm I disagree I think many people have heavily optimised for never needing to be in their home except for sleeping. They work in an office, they work out at a gym, they eat out every meal, their do their laundry at work, public parks are their green space... and this probably now looks like a very a bad idea for the long-term, even if this particular situation clears up quickly.
- devdas 6y agoNot really. I find apartment blocks without an enclosed garden to be annoying, but other than that, it doesn't matter too much.
- ericmcer 6y agoHow do you imagine proximity to work becoming irrelevant affecting housing prices around job hubs?
- economicslol 6y agoClearly downward? If you don't have to work at an office in the Bay Area why would you continue paying $3K/mo in Rent or praying your startup has a good exit so you can pay $1M cash for a starter house?
- exmadscientist 6y agoNot clear at all. Effective WFH requires a bigger house, which would tend to favor remote areas. But partial WFH, where you're still in the office ~1 day/week on average, will push for _both_ larger and closer housing.
- bradleyjg 6y agoAn hour and a half commute five days a week is a brutal grind. Once a week it doesn’t sound so bad.
- ghaff 6y agoDefinitely. The Bay Area is a bit tougher to get out of really expensive housing depending upon where you work. But I'm (at rush hour) something like 90 minutes out of Boston whether driving or rail/subway. And housing is, if not depressed Midwest cheap, pretty reasonable in many towns that far out. That is, as you say, pretty brutal daily--which I never really had to do even when I worked in the city. But it's only a mild PITA once a week or so.
- Mvandenbergh 6y agoNot to mention that if you're in a day a week for specific meetings (vs it being your "office" the expectations about when you will arrive there are different. You may be able to travel during quieter hours which can be faster and less stressful.
- pmiller2 6y agoI WFH "effectively" in an 800 sq foot apartment. If I didn't have a dog, I could probably do so in less space.