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San Francisco Residents Are Leaving at an Unprecedented Rate
- xhkkffbf 6y agoSure, I've thought about leaving myself, but where else can you just take a dump on a sidewalk whenever you feel like it? Or where else can you take anything you want without legal repercussions, as long as it's worth less than $950 misdemeanor limit? San Francisco is a paradise!
- exhilaration 6y agoPer the article, this is based on an analysis of 1,200 searches done on their platform. It seems like a stretch to use those figures to reach conclusions for a city of over 800,000 residents.
- kube-system 6y agoThere is nothing wrong with that sample size. That should give less than a 3% margin of error at 95% confidence.
- dllthomas 6y agoIf it were uniform.
- thrownaway954 6y agocame hear to say the same thing. the submitter should not have used a over exaggerated title. 1200 people is not an "Unprecedented Rate".
- kube-system 6y ago90% is the rate. 1200 is the sample size.
- _jal 6y agoThe traditional signal is when U-Haul starts having logistics problems getting trucks back to the City.
- TYPE_FASTER 6y agoUHaul publishes top growth cities and states based on their data. Here's the list of top growth states for 2019: https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/19965/U-Haul-Names-Top-Growth-States-Of-2019-Florida-Is-New-No-1/ https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/19965/U-Haul-Names-Top-...
- beambot 6y agoThe outbound relocation effect went from 57% to 90%. I suspect that 1200 samples is more than enough to demonstrate strong statistical confidence intervals. (Though I haven't run the numbers.)
- pmiller2 6y agoThey are if they're a representative sample. Margin of error is bounded by 1/sqrt(n) in that case.
- notafraudster 6y agoThat MOE would be extremely conservative given that the proportion of interest is far from p=0.5; the classical MOE would be +- 1.96 * sqrt(0.9 * 0.1 / 1200) = +- 1.697% -- but of course it's not a representative sample as you mention.
- nikhilsimha 6y agoSome stats from https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm Plugged in 800,000 as pop size, and 99% as confidence level and 4 as confidence interval. The number it spits out is 1039 It is a pretty good sample size.
- tqi 6y agoThat only holds true if you assume this sample is representative of the overall population of SF.
- notafraudster 6y agoThis would be true if the website drew a random sample of residents of San Francisco and asked them. They didn't. Rather, they drew a census of their website. No one is doubting that the website has correctly confirmed that 90% of the SF-related searches on their website were people looking to migrate outbound (so the "sampling error" here is effectively 0, unless we choose to model the census as a sample from a meta-population, in which case the classical MOE would be +-1.7% without a finite sample adjustment); The issue here is whether we can draw a reasonable inference from that sample to the target population (all people in San Francisco). My guess is it does not. The title is not justified by the data presented. The claims we're able to make are narrow: A combination of annual secular growth, advertising spend, and COVID that we cannot disentangle suggests 30% increase in move requests to this moving site in the area; Separately, the sample of people using this website are more interested than outbound moves than last year. If we want to combine these, we have "Website Shows 90% growth in raw outbound move searches among SF visitors"
- myspider 6y agoNot to be cynical, but this strikes me as more of a ad - or click bait. Search numbers on a website that I, at least, have never heard of is pretty poor evidence for a trend.
- einpoklum 6y agoBut they are making a year-on-year relative analysis, so even for a non-representative sample, you can identify a strong trend.
- dllthomas 6y agoMaybe it's a demographic shift between people who don't use their platform and those who do.
- hellisothers 6y agoOr that people moving into the city/state are paying moving services while those leaving are DIY moving.
- iamryo 6y agoThe trend is still just searches. Do their historical search numbers closely represent actual figures for people coming and going?
- bernardom 6y agoAs soon as COVID is over we're out.
- HenryKissinger 6y agoWhere are you going?
- bernardom 6y agoNew York area. It's expensive, but it's where family is. I wouldn't be surprised if COVID pushes a lot of people to be nearer family.
- everlost 6y agoBut why move from one COVID prone location to another?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- blueberry_47 6y agoSounds like family
- ulfw 6y agoI'm legit curious. What's your definition of "over"? In a few years when vaccines have been found, 85% of people inoculated and no more proven Covid-19 cases have been found for 30 days? or...?
- gremlinsinc 6y agoI think the consensus of 'over' is when the world one way or the other goes back to well...as normal as it's gonna get. Personally, I think that'll be when there's better treatments for the effects of covid, I'm not too believing of a vaccine hitting anytime under 2 years. But if we could halve the death-rate or more, it'd be pretty good steps towards getting back to normal. Also, if we could actually get people to wear masks and take it seriously. That'd go a long way towards quelling it.
- MattGaiser 6y agoA friend considered it after graduation. 3500 a month for a place in rent. Eventually even with tech salaries that doesn’t make sense. He went to Seattle.
- opportune 6y agoShould note that's basically the price for a full 1b to yourself in a nice and convenient area in the city. Most people who move here after graduation are probably paying closer to half that due to living with roommates/not in the super convenient and expensive areas.
- MattGaiser 6y agoFair, but he is paying $1500 for that same thing in Seattle.
- ayberk 6y agoThat's still crazy. I live 10-min walk away from downtown and SLU (where Amazon campus is) in Seattle and pay a friction of that for a nice 1bd (and still think it's too expensive). SF is crazy.
- bpodgursky 6y agoThe 10% -> 0% income tax SF -> Seattle is also a pretty big deal.
- renewiltord 6y agoSeattle is a great choice. Salaries are similar. The politics aren’t idiotic. No state income tax. Standard of living is just as good.
- cpitman 6y agoIsn't Seattle the City Council where even the allegation of someone having worked with or been friends with Republicans becomes an election scandal? edit: found the article that first brought this up to me (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/in-seattle-is-it-now-taboo-to-be-friends-with-a-republican/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/in-seattl...)
- dpeck 6y agoanecdotal, but I know some young folks who are planning to pack it up and head out after their contractually obligated time is over and their lease is up. My younger sibling, like many, is very annoyed that their early years of marriage without kids/california adventure is mostly being stuck in a 800 sqft apt and occasionally walking the dog. They love the bay, but having the small apartments combined with quarantine has got them reevaluating where they are and how their lives might look for the next $time while we figure out covid-19 as a country/species. edit: my bad of the soft/sqft typo. seems my brain was trying to split the different between small and sqft and flubbed the landing.
- einpoklum 6y agoWhat is an "800 soft" apartment? ... Oh, do you mean 800 square feet? For non-US readers: That's 74.3 m^2 (square meters), but that figure could: * include/not include walls * include/not include balconies etc.
- shp0ngle 6y agoI know this is hacker news nitpicking, but moveBuddha is incredibly disrespectful name for a company to actual buddhists.
- thrownaway954 6y agoyou're right... it is nitpicking. as the old saying goes, eventually you're going to offend someone.
- panzagl 6y agoWell, a billion someones, anyway.
- AnimalMuppet 6y agoPer Wikipedia, about half a billion.
- Beefin 6y agoisn't one of the core tenants of buddhism to seek enlightenment through non-reaction? It'd be ironic if they were indeed offended by this name. I don't think the name or intent behind the name contains any malice either. look beyond the surface and understand the intent. Are they intending malice? yes thats offensive, if not then carry on and stop signaling :)
- shp0ngle 6y agoI am married to a Buddhist. Shit like this is always offensive to her. Using the Divine Teacher to sell random stuff. That's why actual buddhist countries absolutely ban this sort of thing. (Try to name something after Buddha in Thailand or Sri Lanka.) They are using religious and holy words for their benefit. I personally do not care that much, since I am not a buddhist.
- paxys 6y agoWhy? Is the name offensive in any way?
- cmckn 6y ago> last year, there were 980 move searches involving the Bay Area [in the same time period] This is microscopic data to make any sort of claim about migration patterns. I live in Denver, and read a similar article a few years ago (more people were moving out than moving in). Didn't seem to have much of an impact on housing prices or the job market, because it wasn't a sustained, significant trend.
- gremlinsinc 6y agoWell, the difference is a bit bigger... so last year 57% were looking to move out, or 558. This year it's 1200 * 90% or 1080...that's nearly double. This is just a sample size though because, I for one have never heard of the site, so I doubt a ton of people use them for moving needs. A lot probably will just use U-haul and other resources for their move. I could see a lot of people wanting to move from SF esp, if they've been laid off, how could you possibly afford rent in a recession in SF?
- opportune 6y agoI think a lot of is is also that if you are going to be WFH for the next several months, you can save a lot of money by no longer paying San Francisco-level rent. I know if my lease were expiring now I would not be living here until my job started telling everyone to come back to the office. I feel like that's going to have a much bigger effect than VC funding
- TACIXAT 6y agoThis is exactly what my partner and I did. I'm remote and she is COVID-19 remote, so we're sheltering in place in a city we wanted to see. A furnished unit is 1k cheaper than our Bay Area rent was. The weather is great and we get to walk our dog in new parks. It is an unprecedented time and we're having trouble coming up with reasons to go back. We moved out there for a big n salary for me. That wasn't the work I wanted to do so I'm part time now doing what I enjoy. That really throws off the rent justification though.
- lxe 6y agoHow does this compare to MoveBuddha's "regular" numbers? Maybe only the people who're moving out of SF are using MoveBuddha? It's an interesting insight, but I think there's a high chance it doesn't reflect the situation at large.
- MattGaiser 6y ago> To put this into perspective, during the same period last year, there were 980 move searches involving the Bay Area on our moving cost calculator. Of those 980 requests, 57% were for outbound moves and 43% were for moves into the Bay Area. This is typical for any major city that has a lot of people coming in and out at any given time. > But what we’re currently seeing is an incredible 90% of move searches involving the Bay Area are current residents looking to leave and only 10% are people looking to move into the region. That’s a very different picture from just last year.
- fosk 6y ago> But there are many reasons why the region could finally be experiencing a shrinking population: And yet the author is missing the elephant in the room: the incredibly deteriorating living conditions in a city crammed with drug addicts, human feces and casual violent aggressions at all hours of the day. A city that enables the "homeless lifestyle" without any accountability. Homelessness is - for the most part in San Francisco - a choice and/or a result of mental illness and drug addiction. There is of course a certain amount of people that do become homeless because of lack of housing, but for the most part the city administration has been gaslighting us on the real causes: drug addiction and homeless lifestyle. Most of them are not even native from San Francisco, but they come from elsewhere. I suggest everybody reads this article to learn more about the long history of criminality in San Francisco, enabled by the city officials: https://www.city-journal.org/san-francisco-homelessness https://www.city-journal.org/san-francisco-homelessness Edit: Everybody in San Francisco talks about the rights of the homeless, but where are my rights as a lawful tax payer who cannot bring his son to the park without risking his life by stepping on a needle?
- landryraccoon 6y agoHigh housing costs are probably a causal factor in all of the problems you mention. When housing costs are as exorbitant as they are, everyone is much closer to homelessness than they were before. If someone is laid off in the bay, they have significantly less time to find a new job before they cannot afford housing compared to more affordable areas. Once you are actually homeless, mental problems and drug issues can become a self fulfilling prophecy, especially if you moved to the bay from out of state and have no local support network. > Homelessness is - for the most part in San Francisco - a choice and/or a result of mental illness and drug addiction. This is.. a very harsh take. Mental illness and drug abuse I can see, but a choice ? That is a serious claim that requires serious evidence.
- aaomidi 6y agoIt's funny because people like the parent comment here usually propose even more fines and restrictions on these people. None of them want to admit that housing shouldn't be tied to employment. You want to solve homelessness? Make homes a guaranteed right. And actual homes. Not some shitty shelters.
- golf3 6y agoStay the hell out of Texas.
- brodouevencode 6y agoStay the hell out of Georgia too.
- renewiltord 6y agoHaha, I don’t think you have to tell anyone this. They’ll do it themselves.
- brodouevencode 6y agoIt was a joke, and you might be surprised. Traffic is an easy indication of the rate of growth.
- renewiltord 6y agoI, too, was joking! Just bants.
- zelly 6y agocame here to say this
- renewiltord 6y agoI think not. Prepare to be gentrified by superior economics.
- rockarage 6y agoAnother reason not mentioned: An increase in Crime in the City, here's just a few https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-is-proposing-reimbursing-car-break-in-victims-2020-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-is-proposing-r... https://www.ebar.com/news/crime//291784 https://www.ebar.com/news/crime//291784 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/video-man-defecates-in-aisle-of-san-francisco-grocery-store https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/video-man-defecates-...
- paxys 6y agoLinking to a couple of incidents isn't proof of increase in crime. Rate have actually been steadily declining for years.
- booboolayla 6y agoYep, just like rapes in Sweden. Change the definition and voila!
- blakesterz 6y agoInteresting to see Columbus (I'm assuming OH) on that top 5 list. That means about 60 people were looking at moving to Columbus I guess? The other cities made sense to me, but Columbus was a stand out. The others just seemed like cities people looking to leave SF that would use movebuddah would be looking at. I think it's still a major test market because it has the perfect demographics for that kind of thing.
- mifreewil 6y agoI've heard great things about Columbus, OH. Never been there but sounds like a great midwest city with an affordable cost of living and nice college town (The Ohio State University).
- DamnYuppie 6y agoBrutal winters though if you are coming from CA. Honestly one of the under rated large cities in the US is Cleveland. I have had to travel a lot for work over the years and was impressed by the dining options available and the general togetherness of the community there. Again winters...bad...
- cpitman 6y agoI grew up wearing shorts while there was snow on the ground, but Cleveland was the first city where I understood why scarves and gloves are a thing. Brutally cold wind. But on the flipside, their street maintenance was amazing. It was snowing almost all the time during the winter, but the road were always clear.
- asdff 6y agoGrew up there. They plow the roads then don't fix the potholes the plows make lol. The infrastructure maintenance budgets are shoestrings because the city lost 60% of its population over the past 50 years.
- paxys 6y agoThere is an article like this every month, yet the Bay Area is consistently among the largest growing population centers in the country. I'll believe any of the claims the author makes once there are numbers to back it up.
- paulcnichols 6y agoMore content marketing
- shaan1 6y agohow many times will someone say the same thing ? Isn't this old news ?
- einpoklum 6y agoI wonder what the figures really are when you separate regular people (if you'll forgive the loaded term) from the category of "super rich people who can afford $3,000/month rent or whatever it is these days".
- kangnkodos 6y agoThe headline is very misleading. The author says that web searches by people thinking of moving out of San Francisco are up. That's very different than actually leaving.
- RickJWagner 6y agoLayoffs, VC defunding, poop on the streets and city-corona troubles. Yes, I can totally understand a strong outflow. (But in a little while it might be time to buy in. I believe someday SF will again be a desirable place to live.)