5 ms·

Are there any models that estimate the chance of this re-occuring? What do they look like?

brians 6y ago
Based on what we see of other stars, we’re overdue.
gbear605 6y ago
From what I’ve heard, they seem to occur about every a hundred and fifty years, so one could happen any time. However, we don’t know if it’s an event that becomes more likely over time or if it’s completely random chance.
- close04 6y ago
  To be fair we've been more rigorously observing the Sun for ~250 years (24 solar cycles). We've had 1 major storm, mentioned in this article. We can assume weak solar cycles like the one we're in now and the one expected to come after will not bring any surprises but in the end we cannot predict them more than we can predict earthquakes.
  - wcoenen 6y ago
    There have been more solar flares like the Carrington Event, they just didn't hit Earth. The last one was in 2012. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012
    - close04 6y ago
      Ah, I read the "chance of it reoccurring" as "another massive storm hitting Earth". I'm sure they happen all the time, most just point in a different direction. We probably can't even detect the ones heading in the opposite direction from Earth, erupting from the other side of the Sun.
      - petschge 6y ago
        Actually we can detect them, thanks to the Stereo satellites. (And also indirectly through helioseismology.)
        buran77 6y ago
        *Satellite... We've been down to one since 2014. Still does good sentry duty though.
EthanHeilman 6y ago
2020 seems like the sort of year that this would make sense happening, at least from a narrative point of view.
- BurningFrog 6y ago
  This is probably why we're talking about it now.
  - marcosdumay 6y ago
    Cue for an article about a census of asteroids that cross the Earth's orbit tomorrow.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
      Imagine being able to see the tubes they plow through the polar lights, maybe their plasma contrails would glow like a rainbow, or maybe you could see iridiscent vortices! What a show!
- _rrnv 6y ago
  Indeed it seems like the person who calculated the 2012 made a typing error. At least if we get through this year, there will be some epic movies coming next summer... Edit: ok then https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1070319949510520832 https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1070319949510520832
throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
Yes. My comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23067613 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23067613 was partly based on a paper on the storm of 2012. Their estimate of probablility of a carrington-type thingy was 12% per decade (from memory but I believe it is correct). Edit: this probability appears to have been amended recently. From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312103717.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312103717.h... " According to this new research, the probability of a similar solar storm occurring in the following decade ranges from 0.46% to 1.88%, far less than the percentage estimated before. "In 2012, the results reported in scientific literature estimated the probability to be around 12%, ten times more than our more pessimistic estimation," " So much better, but one of the paper's authors says "A probability close to 2% which is what we have calculated for a highly intense storm should not be looked over if we take into account the consequences of such an event"

Based on what we see of other stars, we’re overdue.

From what I’ve heard, they seem to occur about every a hundred and fifty years, so one could happen any time. However, we don’t know if it’s an event that becomes more likely over time or if it’s completely random chance.

close04 6y ago
To be fair we've been more rigorously observing the Sun for ~250 years (24 solar cycles). We've had 1 major storm, mentioned in this article. We can assume weak solar cycles like the one we're in now and the one expected to come after will not bring any surprises but in the end we cannot predict them more than we can predict earthquakes.
- wcoenen 6y ago
  There have been more solar flares like the Carrington Event, they just didn't hit Earth. The last one was in 2012. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012
  - close04 6y ago
    Ah, I read the "chance of it reoccurring" as "another massive storm hitting Earth". I'm sure they happen all the time, most just point in a different direction. We probably can't even detect the ones heading in the opposite direction from Earth, erupting from the other side of the Sun.
    - petschge 6y ago
      Actually we can detect them, thanks to the Stereo satellites. (And also indirectly through helioseismology.)
      - buran77 6y ago
        *Satellite... We've been down to one since 2014. Still does good sentry duty though.

EthanHeilman 6y ago

2020 seems like the sort of year that this would make sense happening, at least from a narrative point of view.

BurningFrog 6y ago
This is probably why we're talking about it now.
- marcosdumay 6y ago
  Cue for an article about a census of asteroids that cross the Earth's orbit tomorrow.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    Imagine being able to see the tubes they plow through the polar lights, maybe their plasma contrails would glow like a rainbow, or maybe you could see iridiscent vortices! What a show!
_rrnv 6y ago
Indeed it seems like the person who calculated the 2012 made a typing error. At least if we get through this year, there will be some epic movies coming next summer... Edit: ok then https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1070319949510520832 https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1070319949510520832

throwaway_pdp09 6y ago

Yes. My comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23067613 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23067613 was partly based on a paper on the storm of 2012. Their estimate of probablility of a carrington-type thingy was 12% per decade (from memory but I believe it is correct). Edit: this probability appears to have been amended recently. From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312103717.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312103717.h... " According to this new research, the probability of a similar solar storm occurring in the following decade ranges from 0.46% to 1.88%, far less than the percentage estimated before. "In 2012, the results reported in scientific literature estimated the probability to be around 12%, ten times more than our more pessimistic estimation," " So much better, but one of the paper's authors says "A probability close to 2% which is what we have calculated for a highly intense storm should not be looked over if we take into account the consequences of such an event"