10 ms·

Solar Storm of 1859

148 points by oli5679 6y ago

FartyMcFarter 6y ago
I hope we don't look at this in a few years wondering what should have been done... Is there any hope of avoiding huge problems due to solar flares happening in the near/medium-term? A silver lining from the Coronavirus pandemic is that people may think about these rare events more.
- ben_w 6y ago
  Despite the low cost, the USA is unprepared: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23061684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23061684
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    Ditto the UK. See my other comment here.
- oli5679 6y ago
  On a personal level, maps batteries, generator and solar panels could come in handy. I think it's possible to prepare the grid too.
- close04 6y ago
  Depending on the magnitude of the storm, having enough advance notice would be enough. On a larger scale, turning off satellites, dialing down the amount of electricity distributed over the powerlines to allow headroom for that excess caused by the storm, having a lot of spares on standby, etc. On a smaller scale, individual readiness where possible (backup power generation, supplies, alternate telecommunication means, etc.). But there's a point beyond which there's no avoiding catastrophic issues - electricity and telecommunications down for extended periods of time, plus the myriad of side effects. As far as I know we have no feasible way today to completely mitigate the effects of a storm similar in scale to the 1859 one. A strong enough solar storm can induce currents able to simply melt the transmission lines (especially low resistance ones - ultra high voltage, 1000+kV) possibly causing fires along the way, destroy transformers, and more. There will always be a storm that surpasses the GIC tolerance on most or all transformers. Pipelines and any other type of cable of significant length would also be seriously affected.
crispyporkbites 6y ago
Are there any models that estimate the chance of this re-occuring? What do they look like?
- brians 6y ago
  Based on what we see of other stars, we’re overdue.
- gbear605 6y ago
  From what I’ve heard, they seem to occur about every a hundred and fifty years, so one could happen any time. However, we don’t know if it’s an event that becomes more likely over time or if it’s completely random chance.
  - close04 6y ago
    To be fair we've been more rigorously observing the Sun for ~250 years (24 solar cycles). We've had 1 major storm, mentioned in this article. We can assume weak solar cycles like the one we're in now and the one expected to come after will not bring any surprises but in the end we cannot predict them more than we can predict earthquakes.
    - wcoenen 6y ago
      There have been more solar flares like the Carrington Event, they just didn't hit Earth. The last one was in 2012. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012
      - close04 6y ago
        Ah, I read the "chance of it reoccurring" as "another massive storm hitting Earth". I'm sure they happen all the time, most just point in a different direction. We probably can't even detect the ones heading in the opposite direction from Earth, erupting from the other side of the Sun.
londons_explore 6y ago
It should be noted that many modern systems are quite resistant to solar flares. Not by design, but mostly by chance. Specifically, solar flares induce currents in long untwisted pair cables. If the cables have high impedance loads on the ends, high voltages will result, frying equipment. The telegraph was an example of a high impedance long wire. In modern equipment, long length high impedance lines are rare. Telephones are one, at around 900 ohms, although nearly all cables are twisted so barely affected. Power lines have an impedance below 1 ohm. Most Comms goes via fiber. Cable TV networks have a grounded shield so unaffected. Small household devices are small, and therefore don't have long lines to get big currents. I'm sure a solar flare would break some stuff, but the vast majority of devices are more resistant than people expect. The most vulnerable thing in today's world is probably actually disused phone lines, which are currently disconnected from anything else, so infinite DC impedance, yet very long, and could cause sparks and fires since they typically have paper insulation which is only good for 1000v or so.
- spdustin 6y ago
  That isn’t actually true. Induced current will occur in nearly any conductor, and the biggest risk all over the world is in the loss of high voltage transformers. This is absolutely, 100% a big problem. While these FOIA’d FEMA docs [0] are just one source, searching for “solar flare blackout” will net you all the sources you need. It’s the same as a nuclear EMP. [0] (PDF): http://www.governmentattic.org/24docs/UnpubFEMAgeomagRpts_2010.pdf http://www.governmentattic.org/24docs/UnpubFEMAgeomagRpts_20...
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    The stuff about blowing the transformers is exactly what I've heard too. If there are any EE who'd care to comment, I'd be curious to know if the level of power that starts flowing through HV cables could damage or destroy them. As I've not heard this I assume not (one bit of good news) but I'd like to know.
    - geomagthrowaway 6y ago
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
pgalvin 6y ago
Perhaps the biggest long-term issue of this (once the immediate damage is repaired, which would perhaps take years) is the loss of decades of human knowledge - everything on hard drives, tapes, flash memory, and just about anything that isn’t an optical disc - with no real warning.
- DamnInteresting 6y ago
  Well, small electronics such as hard drives and mobile phones are not in direct danger from these sorts of events; the damage is caused by induced current on miles-long cables. Our flash memories and tape backups will not be harmed unless they are burned up in power surges from unprotected power outlets.
hyko 6y ago
Just another existential threat to our civilisation that we all know about but assume someone else somewhere else is dealing with. A toxic combination of normalcy bias, the availability heuristic, and hyperbolic discounting?
- iso1631 6y ago
  As seen in Y2K, spend money to fix a problem. If you are successful, the problem doesn't occur, the population listen to those who say "it wasn't really a problem in the first place", and mainstream populists adopt that position to win votes (regardless of their own thoughts). You don't get to play that card again If you aren't successful, the problem occurs anyway and you get accused of not caring Without Democracy those in charge wouldn't be concerned by trying to win the population over Without the ability for anyone to reach millions of people overnight people wouldn't be swayed en-mass by contrarians Often you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. We can see the same thing unfolding in the UK and US over covid19.
t_s_popik 6y ago
Please read my 2016 testimony to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on the threat of solar storms: https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/resilient_societies_testimony_rm15-11-00_march_1_2016_tech_conference_final_feb_23_2016.pdf https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/...
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  OMG. Thanks for this info. I doubt us in the UK are being any smarter. I might question the probabilites as they've been updated since, see my comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23067785 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23067785 but that gives zero excuse to do nothing. This should be the top-voted comment, if anyone would care to read it. I's short and pointed. Edit: this reminds me of Feynman's presentation on the Challenger disaster, only beforehand.
- izend 6y ago
  That is a terrifying report...
- anonuser123456 6y ago
  Market these ideas to defense firms that could act as a supplier. A billion dollar program has to be enticing to someone.
  - pal_9000 6y ago
    I like how you think
- mceachen 6y ago
  Thanks for assembling and sharing that report. Did FERC do anything with it, or was it ignored?
  - t_s_popik 6y ago
    FERC directed the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) to set a reliability standard for solar storms. Under that standard, not a single high voltage transformer in the U.S. electric grid is required under the standard to have hardware protection. Instead, paper studies exempt utilities from taking tangible action. As of May 2020, only one device to block harmful currents from solar storms has been installed in all of the U.S. electric grid. Fairly stated, FERC ignored my testimony and that of other experts.
bencollier49 6y ago
Can you imagine the sort of additional havoc that this would cause if it happened now? We've been somewhat mercifully spared of natural disasters but C19 and something like this would be horrific.
nixass 6y ago
This 19th century miner from rural area is more literate than most of today's people >> I was gold-digging at Rokewood, about four miles from Rokewood township (Victoria). Myself and two mates looking out of the tent saw a great reflection in the southern heavens at about 7 o'clock p.m., and in about half an hour, a scene of almost unspeakable beauty presented itself, lights of every imaginable color were issuing from the southern heavens, one color fading away only to give place to another if possible more beautiful than the last, the streams mounting to the zenith, but always becoming a rich purple when reaching there, and always curling round, leaving a clear strip of sky, which may be described as four fingers held at arm's length. The northern side from the zenith was also illuminated with beautiful colors, always curling round at the zenith, but were considered to be merely a reproduction of the southern display, as all colors south and north always corresponded. It was a sight never to be forgotten, and was considered at the time to be the greatest aurora recorded... The rationalist and pantheist saw nature in her most exquisite robes, recognising, the divine immanence, immutable law, cause, and effect. The superstitious and the fanatical had dire forebodings, and thought it a foreshadowing of Armageddon and final dissolution
- canada_dry 6y ago
  > miner from rural area is more literate Or... The Perth newspaper editor took the liberty of rewriting his story - in an early example of sensational click-bait.
  - runawaybottle 6y ago
    Or maybe GPT2 strikes again!
SeanFerree 6y ago
Very cool!
gottareply2020 6y ago
Llyod’s of London released a report in May 2013 on the potential effects of a significant Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The projected costs were 0.6 - 2.6 Trillion USD. https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/li... As other comments have said, the biggest pain would be the availability of replacement small transformers.
kal31dic 6y ago
The government response to the Royal Academy of Engineering report on space weather shows remarkable complacency. The RAE: Since the last peak of the solar cycle, the Great Britain transmission system has developed to become more meshed and more heavily loaded. It now has a greater dependence on reactive compensation equipment such as static variable compensators and mechanically switched capacitors for ensuring robust voltage control. Thus there is increased probability of severe geomagnetic storms affecting transmission equipment critical to robust operation of the system. The greatest effects of GICs are normally experienced at the periphery of the transmission systems, as in Figure 9. The UK government response: Some UK systems are more resilient and robust to space weather than counterparts abroad:  the GB power grid network is highly meshed and has a great deal of built in redundancy. This potentially makes it less susceptible to space weather effects than power grids in some other countries.
t_s_popik 6y ago
For those of you who want to dig deep into the truth of solar storm (GMD) vulnerability of the North American electric grid, take a few minutes to read the first part of our comment to FERC during the docket process for NERC standard setting. And then say what you think on the thread. https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/docket_rm15-11-000_resilient_societies_nopr_comments_corrected_20150810.pdf https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/...
t_s_popik 6y ago
If people are interested, I'll give my opinion on this paper: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312103717.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312103717.h... Anyone want me to comment?

148 points by oli5679 6y ago

I hope we don't look at this in a few years wondering what should have been done... Is there any hope of avoiding huge problems due to solar flares happening in the near/medium-term? A silver lining from the Coronavirus pandemic is that people may think about these rare events more.

ben_w 6y ago
Despite the low cost, the USA is unprepared: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23061684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23061684
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  Ditto the UK. See my other comment here.
oli5679 6y ago
On a personal level, maps batteries, generator and solar panels could come in handy. I think it's possible to prepare the grid too.
close04 6y ago
Depending on the magnitude of the storm, having enough advance notice would be enough. On a larger scale, turning off satellites, dialing down the amount of electricity distributed over the powerlines to allow headroom for that excess caused by the storm, having a lot of spares on standby, etc. On a smaller scale, individual readiness where possible (backup power generation, supplies, alternate telecommunication means, etc.). But there's a point beyond which there's no avoiding catastrophic issues - electricity and telecommunications down for extended periods of time, plus the myriad of side effects. As far as I know we have no feasible way today to completely mitigate the effects of a storm similar in scale to the 1859 one. A strong enough solar storm can induce currents able to simply melt the transmission lines (especially low resistance ones - ultra high voltage, 1000+kV) possibly causing fires along the way, destroy transformers, and more. There will always be a storm that surpasses the GIC tolerance on most or all transformers. Pipelines and any other type of cable of significant length would also be seriously affected.

crispyporkbites 6y ago

Are there any models that estimate the chance of this re-occuring? What do they look like?

brians 6y ago
Based on what we see of other stars, we’re overdue.
gbear605 6y ago
From what I’ve heard, they seem to occur about every a hundred and fifty years, so one could happen any time. However, we don’t know if it’s an event that becomes more likely over time or if it’s completely random chance.
- close04 6y ago
  To be fair we've been more rigorously observing the Sun for ~250 years (24 solar cycles). We've had 1 major storm, mentioned in this article. We can assume weak solar cycles like the one we're in now and the one expected to come after will not bring any surprises but in the end we cannot predict them more than we can predict earthquakes.
  - wcoenen 6y ago
    There have been more solar flares like the Carrington Event, they just didn't hit Earth. The last one was in 2012. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012
    - close04 6y ago
      Ah, I read the "chance of it reoccurring" as "another massive storm hitting Earth". I'm sure they happen all the time, most just point in a different direction. We probably can't even detect the ones heading in the opposite direction from Earth, erupting from the other side of the Sun.

londons_explore 6y ago

It should be noted that many modern systems are quite resistant to solar flares. Not by design, but mostly by chance. Specifically, solar flares induce currents in long untwisted pair cables. If the cables have high impedance loads on the ends, high voltages will result, frying equipment. The telegraph was an example of a high impedance long wire. In modern equipment, long length high impedance lines are rare. Telephones are one, at around 900 ohms, although nearly all cables are twisted so barely affected. Power lines have an impedance below 1 ohm. Most Comms goes via fiber. Cable TV networks have a grounded shield so unaffected. Small household devices are small, and therefore don't have long lines to get big currents. I'm sure a solar flare would break some stuff, but the vast majority of devices are more resistant than people expect. The most vulnerable thing in today's world is probably actually disused phone lines, which are currently disconnected from anything else, so infinite DC impedance, yet very long, and could cause sparks and fires since they typically have paper insulation which is only good for 1000v or so.

spdustin 6y ago
That isn’t actually true. Induced current will occur in nearly any conductor, and the biggest risk all over the world is in the loss of high voltage transformers. This is absolutely, 100% a big problem. While these FOIA’d FEMA docs [0] are just one source, searching for “solar flare blackout” will net you all the sources you need. It’s the same as a nuclear EMP. [0] (PDF): http://www.governmentattic.org/24docs/UnpubFEMAgeomagRpts_2010.pdf http://www.governmentattic.org/24docs/UnpubFEMAgeomagRpts_20...
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  The stuff about blowing the transformers is exactly what I've heard too. If there are any EE who'd care to comment, I'd be curious to know if the level of power that starts flowing through HV cables could damage or destroy them. As I've not heard this I assume not (one bit of good news) but I'd like to know.
  - geomagthrowaway 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

pgalvin 6y ago

Perhaps the biggest long-term issue of this (once the immediate damage is repaired, which would perhaps take years) is the loss of decades of human knowledge - everything on hard drives, tapes, flash memory, and just about anything that isn’t an optical disc - with no real warning.

DamnInteresting 6y ago
Well, small electronics such as hard drives and mobile phones are not in direct danger from these sorts of events; the damage is caused by induced current on miles-long cables. Our flash memories and tape backups will not be harmed unless they are burned up in power surges from unprotected power outlets.

hyko 6y ago

Just another existential threat to our civilisation that we all know about but assume someone else somewhere else is dealing with. A toxic combination of normalcy bias, the availability heuristic, and hyperbolic discounting?

iso1631 6y ago
As seen in Y2K, spend money to fix a problem. If you are successful, the problem doesn't occur, the population listen to those who say "it wasn't really a problem in the first place", and mainstream populists adopt that position to win votes (regardless of their own thoughts). You don't get to play that card again If you aren't successful, the problem occurs anyway and you get accused of not caring Without Democracy those in charge wouldn't be concerned by trying to win the population over Without the ability for anyone to reach millions of people overnight people wouldn't be swayed en-mass by contrarians Often you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. We can see the same thing unfolding in the UK and US over covid19.

t_s_popik 6y ago

Please read my 2016 testimony to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on the threat of solar storms: https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/resilient_societies_testimony_rm15-11-00_march_1_2016_tech_conference_final_feb_23_2016.pdf https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/...

throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
OMG. Thanks for this info. I doubt us in the UK are being any smarter. I might question the probabilites as they've been updated since, see my comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23067785 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23067785 but that gives zero excuse to do nothing. This should be the top-voted comment, if anyone would care to read it. I's short and pointed. Edit: this reminds me of Feynman's presentation on the Challenger disaster, only beforehand.
izend 6y ago
That is a terrifying report...
anonuser123456 6y ago
Market these ideas to defense firms that could act as a supplier. A billion dollar program has to be enticing to someone.
- pal_9000 6y ago
  I like how you think
mceachen 6y ago
Thanks for assembling and sharing that report. Did FERC do anything with it, or was it ignored?
- t_s_popik 6y ago
  FERC directed the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) to set a reliability standard for solar storms. Under that standard, not a single high voltage transformer in the U.S. electric grid is required under the standard to have hardware protection. Instead, paper studies exempt utilities from taking tangible action. As of May 2020, only one device to block harmful currents from solar storms has been installed in all of the U.S. electric grid. Fairly stated, FERC ignored my testimony and that of other experts.

bencollier49 6y ago

Can you imagine the sort of additional havoc that this would cause if it happened now? We've been somewhat mercifully spared of natural disasters but C19 and something like this would be horrific.

nixass 6y ago

This 19th century miner from rural area is more literate than most of today's people >> I was gold-digging at Rokewood, about four miles from Rokewood township (Victoria). Myself and two mates looking out of the tent saw a great reflection in the southern heavens at about 7 o'clock p.m., and in about half an hour, a scene of almost unspeakable beauty presented itself, lights of every imaginable color were issuing from the southern heavens, one color fading away only to give place to another if possible more beautiful than the last, the streams mounting to the zenith, but always becoming a rich purple when reaching there, and always curling round, leaving a clear strip of sky, which may be described as four fingers held at arm's length. The northern side from the zenith was also illuminated with beautiful colors, always curling round at the zenith, but were considered to be merely a reproduction of the southern display, as all colors south and north always corresponded. It was a sight never to be forgotten, and was considered at the time to be the greatest aurora recorded... The rationalist and pantheist saw nature in her most exquisite robes, recognising, the divine immanence, immutable law, cause, and effect. The superstitious and the fanatical had dire forebodings, and thought it a foreshadowing of Armageddon and final dissolution

canada_dry 6y ago
> miner from rural area is more literate Or... The Perth newspaper editor took the liberty of rewriting his story - in an early example of sensational click-bait.
- runawaybottle 6y ago
  Or maybe GPT2 strikes again!

SeanFerree 6y ago

Very cool!

gottareply2020 6y ago

Llyod’s of London released a report in May 2013 on the potential effects of a significant Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The projected costs were 0.6 - 2.6 Trillion USD. https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/li... As other comments have said, the biggest pain would be the availability of replacement small transformers.

kal31dic 6y ago

The government response to the Royal Academy of Engineering report on space weather shows remarkable complacency. The RAE: Since the last peak of the solar cycle, the Great Britain transmission system has developed to become more meshed and more heavily loaded. It now has a greater dependence on reactive compensation equipment such as static variable compensators and mechanically switched capacitors for ensuring robust voltage control. Thus there is increased probability of severe geomagnetic storms affecting transmission equipment critical to robust operation of the system. The greatest effects of GICs are normally experienced at the periphery of the transmission systems, as in Figure 9. The UK government response: Some UK systems are more resilient and robust to space weather than counterparts abroad:  the GB power grid network is highly meshed and has a great deal of built in redundancy. This potentially makes it less susceptible to space weather effects than power grids in some other countries.

t_s_popik 6y ago

For those of you who want to dig deep into the truth of solar storm (GMD) vulnerability of the North American electric grid, take a few minutes to read the first part of our comment to FERC during the docket process for NERC standard setting. And then say what you think on the thread. https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/docket_rm15-11-000_resilient_societies_nopr_comments_corrected_20150810.pdf https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/...

t_s_popik 6y ago

If people are interested, I'll give my opinion on this paper: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312103717.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312103717.h... Anyone want me to comment?