5 ms·

I agree in principle with your wish for some neutral <unquote>, informed, apolitical, insightful, measured, and cautious commentary that distils the current con

by Jedd 7y ago

I agree in principle with your wish for some neutral <unquote>, informed, apolitical, insightful, measured, and cautious commentary that distils the current consensus. But it sounds like a lot of the concerns you express are specifically around the problems that are currently being experienced by one poorly administered country. I think elsewhere in the world, a lot of people feel they're already getting this level of information, without the political overload & misdirection.

roenxi 7y ago
I reject the notion that Australia is poorly administered. Our COVID-19 cases are extremely low [0] and the government has been doing a fine job compared to most others. :) [0] https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200503_00.aspx https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200503_00.aspx
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- mlg10 7y ago
  Aren't the cases low because the temperatures were high when the virus first hit (and are still comparatively high)? I'm sure Italy would have done better in the summer with 30 degrees Celsius.
  - wbronitsky 7y ago
    Do you have any data to support the assertion that higher temperatures help calm Covid rates? Seeing as Singapore is having an extremely tough time right now, I don’t think you do. This is pure supposition.
    - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
      It's a well-known correlation with influenza. Yes it may be untrue with Corona Virus, but that remains to be seen. It would be unusual if the correlation didn't hold.
      - wbronitsky 7y ago
        Please stop insisting we have evidence when none exists. My question was: do we have evidence that warm weather slows Covid outbreaks? So far, the answer is “no”, and asserting anything else is not an argument, it’s a made up story.
        blix 7y ago
        Asserting that there is absolutely no temperature dependence without evidence is pretty much the same thing as asserting there absolutely is without evidence. If there is no data, the best choice is to say that you don't know while coming up with plausible hypotheses. That a virus might share some traits with other closely related viruses is not so uncommon. Extrapolation from prior evidence when no direct evidence is available is one of the main capabilities of the scientific method. This is pretty far from a 'made up story.' It's a bit of moot point though. Because of the extremely plausible nature of the idea that covid might have some temperature dependence, there are many people investigating this specific claim. With a cursory web search, you can find several papers and pre-prints on the subject, a small majority of which find evidence to support that trend. Saying that temperature can't affect covid transmission because Singapore is having a tough time is akin to suggesting climate change isn't real because it snowed in April. It is just one data point.
        gus_massa 7y ago
        There was a nice article about similar coronavirus. No virus is exactly equal to the other virus, but the comparison can be helpful. https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-can-other-coronaviruses-tell-us-about-sars-cov-2-20200429/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-can-other-coronaviruses-... (HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23019199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23019199 | 204 points | days ago | 189 comments)
    - ShorsHammer 7y ago
      Singapore is doing fine and has one the lowest death rates in the world. Nearly 100x less than the global average for case fatalities. For all these people testing positive no one is actually dying, most don't even have symptoms.
    - holler 6y ago
      hasn't it been shown that vitamin-D deficiency has been shown as an aggravating factor in case mortality with covid? It's not a big extrapolation then to suggest places with warm sunshine would tend to have better outcomes.
  - pinkfoot 7y ago
    What make you sure?
  - dekhn 7y ago
    There's no evidence that higher temperatures have an effect on disease transmission.
    - areyousure 7y ago
      https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

by Jedd 7y ago

roenxi 7y ago

I reject the notion that Australia is poorly administered. Our COVID-19 cases are extremely low [0] and the government has been doing a fine job compared to most others. :) [0] https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200503_00.aspx https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200503_00.aspx

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
mlg10 7y ago
Aren't the cases low because the temperatures were high when the virus first hit (and are still comparatively high)? I'm sure Italy would have done better in the summer with 30 degrees Celsius.
- wbronitsky 7y ago
  Do you have any data to support the assertion that higher temperatures help calm Covid rates? Seeing as Singapore is having an extremely tough time right now, I don’t think you do. This is pure supposition.
  - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
    It's a well-known correlation with influenza. Yes it may be untrue with Corona Virus, but that remains to be seen. It would be unusual if the correlation didn't hold.
    - wbronitsky 7y ago
      Please stop insisting we have evidence when none exists. My question was: do we have evidence that warm weather slows Covid outbreaks? So far, the answer is “no”, and asserting anything else is not an argument, it’s a made up story.
      - blix 7y ago
        Asserting that there is absolutely no temperature dependence without evidence is pretty much the same thing as asserting there absolutely is without evidence. If there is no data, the best choice is to say that you don't know while coming up with plausible hypotheses. That a virus might share some traits with other closely related viruses is not so uncommon. Extrapolation from prior evidence when no direct evidence is available is one of the main capabilities of the scientific method. This is pretty far from a 'made up story.' It's a bit of moot point though. Because of the extremely plausible nature of the idea that covid might have some temperature dependence, there are many people investigating this specific claim. With a cursory web search, you can find several papers and pre-prints on the subject, a small majority of which find evidence to support that trend. Saying that temperature can't affect covid transmission because Singapore is having a tough time is akin to suggesting climate change isn't real because it snowed in April. It is just one data point.
        gus_massa 7y ago
        There was a nice article about similar coronavirus. No virus is exactly equal to the other virus, but the comparison can be helpful. https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-can-other-coronaviruses-tell-us-about-sars-cov-2-20200429/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-can-other-coronaviruses-... (HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23019199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23019199 | 204 points | days ago | 189 comments)
  - ShorsHammer 7y ago
    Singapore is doing fine and has one the lowest death rates in the world. Nearly 100x less than the global average for case fatalities. For all these people testing positive no one is actually dying, most don't even have symptoms.
  - holler 6y ago
    hasn't it been shown that vitamin-D deficiency has been shown as an aggravating factor in case mortality with covid? It's not a big extrapolation then to suggest places with warm sunshine would tend to have better outcomes.
- pinkfoot 7y ago
  What make you sure?
- dekhn 7y ago
  There's no evidence that higher temperatures have an effect on disease transmission.
  - areyousure 7y ago
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767