3 ms·
What's the reasoning behind this incredibly strong statement: "Most epidemiologists expect a vaccine in 1 to 2 years." ?
by augustt 6y ago
What's the reasoning behind this incredibly strong statement: "Most epidemiologists expect a vaccine in 1 to 2 years." ?
- slicktux 6y agoI would assume maybe because of the phenomenon: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhanceme...
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoMy understanding is that vaccine development efforts went very well for SARS, and we never "got a vaccine" just because there was nowhere with an active outbreak to perform the trials that would prove it works. So much of that knowledge should transfer, and there's strong reason to expect some of the vaccines currently in development and testing will end up working.
- lbeltrame 6y agoBecause they take into account not only the development, but also the production constraints, which is not just turning a dial. That said, approaches are kind of different compared to traditional vaccine development. If efficacy is demonstrated, there will be a huge pressure to scale up production to get it around ASAP. That's why institutions like the Jenner Institute in Oxford (which develops one of the vaccines further ahead in the race) is seeking partnerships everywhere (at risk, because for now no one knows if it works). No single entity can make billions of doses. P.S.: All these measures and reasonings seem to forget the eventual availability of effective pharmacological treatment, which might reduce the medical impact of this disease.