After the peak of unemployment during the great recession, it took three years to get the U3 unemployment rate down from 10% and back below 8%. Three years. 2%.

After the peak of unemployment during the great recession, it took three years to get the U3 unemployment rate down from 10% and back below 8%. Three years. 2%. We're somewhere around 23% right now. Call the peak 28%-30%. Assume a sharper bounce from the peak for various likely reasons. Can you imagine what things are going to look like in three years, if we're still near 14% unemployment? How about six years to get back to the worst of the great recession levels? It's going to take nearly a decade to get back to a normal job market. The market obviously isn't properly pricing based on the economic destruction and the fiscal consequences that will be entailed. The stock market is rolling around on the floor high on the Fed's supply while the house is on fire. How long can that last? I'm going to specifically watch for the inflection point of how fast the economy bounces back (or not), as that'll be an enormous confidence juncture for the market. It's pricing for the sharpest V shaped recovery imaginable, when the real recovery is more likely to look like a jagged, slowish, prodding swoosh; the difference between those two realities and how the present is being priced, is supplied by the Fed. Can the US Government spend an extra $8 trillion beyond what they already have to pad everything through the next three years? They can, I don't know if they will. I suspect after this very brief period of barely bipartisan voting to support the population and economy, Congress will rip at eachother like we've rarely seen before. The partisan walls will go back up before this year is out. Each stimulus measure will separate the parties a bit more than the last. There will be wild political brawling between those who have survived this mostly intact and don't want to keep spending at the highly elevated rates, and those who want to keep providing full stimulus-level benefits to the very large number of unemployed persons for many years. The cost will be something beyond extreme to handle a situation with unemployment ranging between 10%-30% for a mere three years (how about if we spend six years elevated beyond the great recession peak unemployment rate?). Sympathy will dwindle rapidly in large segments of the population and people will begin to argue primarily from their personal bias and economic condition, seeking to guard their own survival against economic disaster.