5 ms·

California, Los Angeles see jump in new cases, Bay Area continues down

39 points by MilnerRoute 7y ago

bsder 7y ago
Presumably this is the Easter bump coming in from people who didn't take it seriously--it's been 3 weeks. Southern California has a lot more Catholics than the Bay Area.
- sq_ 7y ago
  I wonder if Orange County will see a bump in another week or so. A lot of people I know from down there were out at the beach last weekend while LA's beaches were still on lockdown.
  - jakear 7y ago
    I’m from the area (not living there anymore) and I’m also interested. There’s an “OC vs. Gavin” showdown going on, and I’m not sure which side to be on. Based on what I’ve heard from local authorities, the beachgoers maintained proper distance and the orders from Gavin are solely retaliatory.
    - wwweston 7y ago
      What's the governor's interest in "retaliation"? Presumably he doesn't have much to gain by upsetting people who want the beaches to be open unless there's a larger constituency he makes happier (in which case that sounds like democracy...)
    - sq_ 7y ago
      > the beachgoers maintained proper distance I sure hope this was the case for their sake and that of everyone else in southern CA, but I feel like it'd be really tough to maintain distancing in a public place like the beach (and while going to and from, parking, etc). And that's if you're actively trying to and aware the whole time.
      - in_cahoots 7y ago
        Thankfully most people I see do seem to be trying to keep a 6-foot radius between households, even in the pictures of crowded beaches that make it to the news. Is there any evidence that brief incidental contact can spread the virus in significant amounts? I seem to recall that at one point officials were saying you needed extended (15 minutes or more) close contact to be considered at risk. If that is the case then I don’t see much risk in walking past another person on your way to the beach. And if it’s not the case then we might as well give up on contact tracing, because without massive invasions of privacy we can’t trace down every passerby of an infected individual. Of course the science has been moving fast here, so this could be outdated.
- borkt 7y ago
  I get what you are going for but LA has about 10x more people in general than the Bay Area, and to my knowledge most christians celebrate Easter, not just Catholics.
  - 01100011 7y ago
    Yeah but a lot of people celebrate Easter with egg hunts and candy. Not everyone celebrates it with mass. Was mass cancelled for Easter?
    - Galaxity 7y ago
      Protestants go to church services for Easter probably as much as Catholics go to mass for Easter.
    - louden 7y ago
      Yes. Bishops in the US closed parishes in March. The Pope granted a dispensation so that Catholics do not have the obligation to attend Mass during Lent and Holy Week.
  - bsder 7y ago
    Infection rate is population size insensitive. Easter also seems to be quite a bit more important to Catholics than most christians (see: Ash Wednesday, fasting, etc.)
- gjs278 7y ago
  nobody in LA is religious
- redis_mlc 7y ago
  Hate to contradict the HN "the world is falling, omg!" corona narrative, but ... The Bay Area is likely approaching herd immunity levels, since we had a lot of travellers to and from China since December. Corona mortality levels in SF have nothing to do with the lockdown, and never did. I've been watching the Bay Area hospitals dashboard, and there never was a crisis: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#hospital https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#ho... Scroll down half-way to the hospital beds chart and graphs - no significant change in 2 months.
  - MilnerRoute 7y ago
    This is no way implies "herd immunity". That would require 60% of the population to have not only been exposed to the virus, but to have actually achieved full immunity thereafter.
- AviationAtom 7y ago
  And we know only Catholics pack the California beaches out, right?
kf 7y ago
The curve has been flattened and I’m past ready for lockdown to end.
- ohazi 7y ago
  I understand the sentiment, but what exactly do you expect will happen when the lockdown is lifted? People aren't going to just say "yay, it's over!" and have a grand day out on the town, going to their favorite now-open-and-bustling-once-again restaurants, cafes, and crowded weekend destinations for shopping and people watching. The majority of people are going to continue to be so nervous and cautious that even if these businesses were allowed to open tomorrow, they are going to remain practically empty for a good long time. There was never an endgame to these lockdowns. You flatten the curve... and then what? If people go mingle again in anything resembling normal capacity, it'll pick right back up where we left off.
  - snapetom 7y ago
    Why is it always a question of lockdown versus no lockdown? There are shades of lockdowns. The most realistic way to fight this is to regulate the number of people who get it without triaging care. Full lockdown is not going to fulfill that and neither is no lockdown.
    - brewdad 7y ago
      The plan needs to make sense though. Texas is opening restaurants tomorrow but limiting capacity to something like 25% of normal. No business can make that profitable but the supports, however meager, from the state will cease because "hey you're open for business now".
    - Gibbon1 7y ago
      SF is increasing their number of public health nurses doing contract tracing from 10 to 150. People are starting to wear masks and distance themselves properly. The percentage of people testing positive continues to fall. Containment was lost. SIP was declared to clamp down on the spread. Resources are being marshalled to increase containment to the level needed. As that comes on line SIP rules will be relaxed and modified. Frankly do not get why this hard for a lot of people here to comprehend.
VonGuard 7y ago
I mean, the Bay Area can read a graph and understand math. It's the dominant industry here, math and data. I don't think the same can be said of the LA region...
- dang 7y ago
  Please don't take HN threads into regional flamewar.
- williamstein 7y ago
  It would be nice if the article contained a graph. There's data about reproduction numbers and case numbers for each state at https://rt.live/ https://rt.live/ but the estimate Rt is at an all time low for California, so that's not useful for understanding this article (since maybe LA and SFO balance out). Are there any sites with good visualizations that help one to see a statement like the claim of this article?
  - resfirestar 7y ago
    LA Times has statewide and by-county graphs here: https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/ https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-case... The trends there and in news reports like the OP are going to look different from your R_t site because it's based on the official numbers rather than a model.
electriclove 7y ago
LA has recently made testing available to anyone which is a great move! https://lacovidprod.service-now.com/rrs https://lacovidprod.service-now.com/rrs
- gjs278 7y ago
  makes no difference. oh you don’t have it? stay inside. oh you have it? we have no treatment. stay inside.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  Apparently, all slots are full... so they seem to have maxed out for now.
- grantlmiller 7y ago
  Free, for everyone... even those without symptoms. It does feel like "number of tests administered" per region during said time period would be an important stat for context. But who am I to let details get in the way.
williesleg 7y ago
Meanwhile mortality rate continues to dwindle. This is perhaps the biggest scam of the century. You know it because Bill Gates came out of his hole to spread more fear so he can peddle his wares.
ilaksh 7y ago
How many tests were taken over this period in the Bay Area versus LA? And what people are being tested in each area? They still barely even acknowledge that the amount of testing is part of this. The reporting should be about estimated total infection spread and the ways they are estimating it.
- brewdad 7y ago
  Throughout this I've tried to focus on the number of deaths. It's certainly not a perfect measure due to undercounting in some areas and localized epicenters but it seems to smooth out the noise between regions far better than number of positive tests.
- mchusma 7y ago
  The CA Governor Newsom had said on a press conference recently that they had increased testing last week by about 40%, and planned a similar pace in the weeks to come. Don't know about how that relates to LA or how accurate that is. My go to tracking site https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ doesn't seem to break down historical by state.
  - testbot123 7y ago
    It's in the next tab over, "State by State" [1]. Click on the state name to see the breakdown. For example, if you click on "Alabama" it will take you to historical data [2]. Cheers! [1] https://covidtracking.com/data https://covidtracking.com/data [2] https://covidtracking.com/data/state/alabama https://covidtracking.com/data/state/alabama
MilnerRoute 7y ago
Two Bay Area stats from the article: There were seven deaths on Wednesday, bringing the region’s total to 283. But Wednesday’s reported deaths represents a 66% decrease from the 21 deaths recorded on April 22. In fact, Santa Clara County, once the region’s epicenter of its COVID-19 crisis, recorded its lowest number of new cases in a single day — just 12 — since the pandemic began.

39 points by MilnerRoute 7y ago

Presumably this is the Easter bump coming in from people who didn't take it seriously--it's been 3 weeks. Southern California has a lot more Catholics than the Bay Area.

sq_ 7y ago
I wonder if Orange County will see a bump in another week or so. A lot of people I know from down there were out at the beach last weekend while LA's beaches were still on lockdown.
- jakear 7y ago
  I’m from the area (not living there anymore) and I’m also interested. There’s an “OC vs. Gavin” showdown going on, and I’m not sure which side to be on. Based on what I’ve heard from local authorities, the beachgoers maintained proper distance and the orders from Gavin are solely retaliatory.
  - wwweston 7y ago
    What's the governor's interest in "retaliation"? Presumably he doesn't have much to gain by upsetting people who want the beaches to be open unless there's a larger constituency he makes happier (in which case that sounds like democracy...)
  - sq_ 7y ago
    > the beachgoers maintained proper distance I sure hope this was the case for their sake and that of everyone else in southern CA, but I feel like it'd be really tough to maintain distancing in a public place like the beach (and while going to and from, parking, etc). And that's if you're actively trying to and aware the whole time.
    - in_cahoots 7y ago
      Thankfully most people I see do seem to be trying to keep a 6-foot radius between households, even in the pictures of crowded beaches that make it to the news. Is there any evidence that brief incidental contact can spread the virus in significant amounts? I seem to recall that at one point officials were saying you needed extended (15 minutes or more) close contact to be considered at risk. If that is the case then I don’t see much risk in walking past another person on your way to the beach. And if it’s not the case then we might as well give up on contact tracing, because without massive invasions of privacy we can’t trace down every passerby of an infected individual. Of course the science has been moving fast here, so this could be outdated.
borkt 7y ago
I get what you are going for but LA has about 10x more people in general than the Bay Area, and to my knowledge most christians celebrate Easter, not just Catholics.
- 01100011 7y ago
  Yeah but a lot of people celebrate Easter with egg hunts and candy. Not everyone celebrates it with mass. Was mass cancelled for Easter?
  - Galaxity 7y ago
    Protestants go to church services for Easter probably as much as Catholics go to mass for Easter.
  - louden 7y ago
    Yes. Bishops in the US closed parishes in March. The Pope granted a dispensation so that Catholics do not have the obligation to attend Mass during Lent and Holy Week.
- bsder 7y ago
  Infection rate is population size insensitive. Easter also seems to be quite a bit more important to Catholics than most christians (see: Ash Wednesday, fasting, etc.)
gjs278 7y ago
nobody in LA is religious
redis_mlc 7y ago
Hate to contradict the HN "the world is falling, omg!" corona narrative, but ... The Bay Area is likely approaching herd immunity levels, since we had a lot of travellers to and from China since December. Corona mortality levels in SF have nothing to do with the lockdown, and never did. I've been watching the Bay Area hospitals dashboard, and there never was a crisis: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#hospital https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#ho... Scroll down half-way to the hospital beds chart and graphs - no significant change in 2 months.
- MilnerRoute 7y ago
  This is no way implies "herd immunity". That would require 60% of the population to have not only been exposed to the virus, but to have actually achieved full immunity thereafter.
AviationAtom 7y ago
And we know only Catholics pack the California beaches out, right?

kf 7y ago

The curve has been flattened and I’m past ready for lockdown to end.

ohazi 7y ago
I understand the sentiment, but what exactly do you expect will happen when the lockdown is lifted? People aren't going to just say "yay, it's over!" and have a grand day out on the town, going to their favorite now-open-and-bustling-once-again restaurants, cafes, and crowded weekend destinations for shopping and people watching. The majority of people are going to continue to be so nervous and cautious that even if these businesses were allowed to open tomorrow, they are going to remain practically empty for a good long time. There was never an endgame to these lockdowns. You flatten the curve... and then what? If people go mingle again in anything resembling normal capacity, it'll pick right back up where we left off.
- snapetom 7y ago
  Why is it always a question of lockdown versus no lockdown? There are shades of lockdowns. The most realistic way to fight this is to regulate the number of people who get it without triaging care. Full lockdown is not going to fulfill that and neither is no lockdown.
  - brewdad 7y ago
    The plan needs to make sense though. Texas is opening restaurants tomorrow but limiting capacity to something like 25% of normal. No business can make that profitable but the supports, however meager, from the state will cease because "hey you're open for business now".
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    SF is increasing their number of public health nurses doing contract tracing from 10 to 150. People are starting to wear masks and distance themselves properly. The percentage of people testing positive continues to fall. Containment was lost. SIP was declared to clamp down on the spread. Resources are being marshalled to increase containment to the level needed. As that comes on line SIP rules will be relaxed and modified. Frankly do not get why this hard for a lot of people here to comprehend.

VonGuard 7y ago

I mean, the Bay Area can read a graph and understand math. It's the dominant industry here, math and data. I don't think the same can be said of the LA region...

dang 7y ago
Please don't take HN threads into regional flamewar.
williamstein 7y ago
It would be nice if the article contained a graph. There's data about reproduction numbers and case numbers for each state at https://rt.live/ https://rt.live/ but the estimate Rt is at an all time low for California, so that's not useful for understanding this article (since maybe LA and SFO balance out). Are there any sites with good visualizations that help one to see a statement like the claim of this article?
- resfirestar 7y ago
  LA Times has statewide and by-county graphs here: https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/ https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-case... The trends there and in news reports like the OP are going to look different from your R_t site because it's based on the official numbers rather than a model.

electriclove 7y ago

LA has recently made testing available to anyone which is a great move! https://lacovidprod.service-now.com/rrs https://lacovidprod.service-now.com/rrs

gjs278 7y ago
makes no difference. oh you don’t have it? stay inside. oh you have it? we have no treatment. stay inside.
koheripbal 7y ago
Apparently, all slots are full... so they seem to have maxed out for now.
grantlmiller 7y ago
Free, for everyone... even those without symptoms. It does feel like "number of tests administered" per region during said time period would be an important stat for context. But who am I to let details get in the way.

williesleg 7y ago

Meanwhile mortality rate continues to dwindle. This is perhaps the biggest scam of the century. You know it because Bill Gates came out of his hole to spread more fear so he can peddle his wares.

ilaksh 7y ago

How many tests were taken over this period in the Bay Area versus LA? And what people are being tested in each area? They still barely even acknowledge that the amount of testing is part of this. The reporting should be about estimated total infection spread and the ways they are estimating it.

brewdad 7y ago
Throughout this I've tried to focus on the number of deaths. It's certainly not a perfect measure due to undercounting in some areas and localized epicenters but it seems to smooth out the noise between regions far better than number of positive tests.
mchusma 7y ago
The CA Governor Newsom had said on a press conference recently that they had increased testing last week by about 40%, and planned a similar pace in the weeks to come. Don't know about how that relates to LA or how accurate that is. My go to tracking site https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ doesn't seem to break down historical by state.
- testbot123 7y ago
  It's in the next tab over, "State by State" [1]. Click on the state name to see the breakdown. For example, if you click on "Alabama" it will take you to historical data [2]. Cheers! [1] https://covidtracking.com/data https://covidtracking.com/data [2] https://covidtracking.com/data/state/alabama https://covidtracking.com/data/state/alabama

MilnerRoute 7y ago

Two Bay Area stats from the article: There were seven deaths on Wednesday, bringing the region’s total to 283. But Wednesday’s reported deaths represents a 66% decrease from the 21 deaths recorded on April 22. In fact, Santa Clara County, once the region’s epicenter of its COVID-19 crisis, recorded its lowest number of new cases in a single day — just 12 — since the pandemic began.