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Where do you think all the plastic, batteries, and energy required to run the manufacturing process for those EVs comes from? I'll give you a hint: it's not ren

Where do you think all the plastic, batteries, and energy required to run the manufacturing process for those EVs comes from? I'll give you a hint: it's not renewables.

Retric 6y ago
69% of oil is directly used for transportation, if that falls by even 10% oil sands are going away, if it falls by 30% fracking is going away. Home heating etc make up the bulk of the remainder, with plastics being a small fraction. They may be picked up again in 40 years to enable plastic manufacturing, but commodity extraction is all about boom and bust cycles. PS: Buying a 10 gallons of gas for a fillip is 63 pounds. How frequently are you buying 63 pounds of plastic?
nopinsight 6y ago
Would the supply of plastic and other products from low-cost producers of petrochemicals be sufficient for global demand? Can low-cost producers shift their product mix toward more chemicals and less oil?
dashundchen 6y ago
According to the EIA, in the US almost 70% of oil is used for transportation. The US consumes a fifth of the worlds oil. Even if you committed to fossil fuel only for industrial processes (which I don't see why you would), if used to electrify transportation you'd eliminate a majority of the demand for oil. Plastics usage is marginal compared to transportation. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc...
martythemaniak 6y ago
That's a very dense question. Plastics are a sort of byproduct of oil production and account for like (IIRC) 5% of them. You can't sustain an industry on that. If their price goes up, there'll be lots of substitutes popping up, but we should also note that. It should also be noted that plastics, by themselves, don't contribute to climate change - the carbon doesn't go in the atmosphere. Batteries? I'm not sure what the question is. There's a lot of stuff that does into them and fossil fuels is present everywhere, for example powering the mining trucks. Except the way to get rid of fossil fuel powered mining trucks is to have EV semis, which need EV pickup trucks, which need EV passenger cars. That is, it's a virtuous cycle where more EVs cause prices to go down and more EVs to exist. You can plainly see this cycle play out over the last decade and it's only going to accelerate. Energy? Well, this is simple - it depends on where you make EVs. Plenty of jurisdictions have very low carbon electricity.
- brenden2 6y ago
  Raw material extraction, smelting, refining, shipping and so on all depend on fossil fuels (I haven't heard of any electric ships yet). Batteries in particular are known for having a significant carbon footprint[0], though to Elon's credit he's trying to change this (but it's a long, long way off). [0]: https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/22026518/lithium-batteries-dirty-secret-manufacturing-them-leaves-massive-carbon-footprint https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/220...

Where do you think all the plastic, batteries, and energy required to run the manufacturing process for those EVs comes from? I'll give you a hint: it's not renewables.

Retric 6y ago

69% of oil is directly used for transportation, if that falls by even 10% oil sands are going away, if it falls by 30% fracking is going away. Home heating etc make up the bulk of the remainder, with plastics being a small fraction. They may be picked up again in 40 years to enable plastic manufacturing, but commodity extraction is all about boom and bust cycles. PS: Buying a 10 gallons of gas for a fillip is 63 pounds. How frequently are you buying 63 pounds of plastic?

nopinsight 6y ago

Would the supply of plastic and other products from low-cost producers of petrochemicals be sufficient for global demand? Can low-cost producers shift their product mix toward more chemicals and less oil?

dashundchen 6y ago

According to the EIA, in the US almost 70% of oil is used for transportation. The US consumes a fifth of the worlds oil. Even if you committed to fossil fuel only for industrial processes (which I don't see why you would), if used to electrify transportation you'd eliminate a majority of the demand for oil. Plastics usage is marginal compared to transportation. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc...

martythemaniak 6y ago

That's a very dense question. Plastics are a sort of byproduct of oil production and account for like (IIRC) 5% of them. You can't sustain an industry on that. If their price goes up, there'll be lots of substitutes popping up, but we should also note that. It should also be noted that plastics, by themselves, don't contribute to climate change - the carbon doesn't go in the atmosphere. Batteries? I'm not sure what the question is. There's a lot of stuff that does into them and fossil fuels is present everywhere, for example powering the mining trucks. Except the way to get rid of fossil fuel powered mining trucks is to have EV semis, which need EV pickup trucks, which need EV passenger cars. That is, it's a virtuous cycle where more EVs cause prices to go down and more EVs to exist. You can plainly see this cycle play out over the last decade and it's only going to accelerate. Energy? Well, this is simple - it depends on where you make EVs. Plenty of jurisdictions have very low carbon electricity.

brenden2 6y ago
Raw material extraction, smelting, refining, shipping and so on all depend on fossil fuels (I haven't heard of any electric ships yet). Batteries in particular are known for having a significant carbon footprint[0], though to Elon's credit he's trying to change this (but it's a long, long way off). [0]: https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/22026518/lithium-batteries-dirty-secret-manufacturing-them-leaves-massive-carbon-footprint https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/220...