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While I think the overall rate of production of EVs is frustratingly slow, once that giant industry is spun up the oil industry is going to suffer like nothing

While I think the overall rate of production of EVs is frustratingly slow, once that giant industry is spun up the oil industry is going to suffer like nothing before. It can recover from this corona situation, but it won't be able to from a shift to EVs. I wish they would see this as their final warning. It's doubly frustrating for Alberta, which has a high baseline cost of production and bills itself business friendly and talks a lot about "energy". Imagine for a sec that they used a small part of the Heritage Fund (say $1 Billion) and a set of business-friendly regulations to set up an X-Prize type competition for advanced nuclear? How much private investment could they attract? But it's not gonna happen, all their talk of "business" and "energy" just means oil, oil, oil.

brenden2 7y ago
Where do you think all the plastic, batteries, and energy required to run the manufacturing process for those EVs comes from? I'll give you a hint: it's not renewables.
- Retric 7y ago
  69% of oil is directly used for transportation, if that falls by even 10% oil sands are going away, if it falls by 30% fracking is going away. Home heating etc make up the bulk of the remainder, with plastics being a small fraction. They may be picked up again in 40 years to enable plastic manufacturing, but commodity extraction is all about boom and bust cycles. PS: Buying a 10 gallons of gas for a fillip is 63 pounds. How frequently are you buying 63 pounds of plastic?
- nopinsight 7y ago
  Would the supply of plastic and other products from low-cost producers of petrochemicals be sufficient for global demand? Can low-cost producers shift their product mix toward more chemicals and less oil?
- dashundchen 7y ago
  According to the EIA, in the US almost 70% of oil is used for transportation. The US consumes a fifth of the worlds oil. Even if you committed to fossil fuel only for industrial processes (which I don't see why you would), if used to electrify transportation you'd eliminate a majority of the demand for oil. Plastics usage is marginal compared to transportation. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc...
- martythemaniak 7y ago
  That's a very dense question. Plastics are a sort of byproduct of oil production and account for like (IIRC) 5% of them. You can't sustain an industry on that. If their price goes up, there'll be lots of substitutes popping up, but we should also note that. It should also be noted that plastics, by themselves, don't contribute to climate change - the carbon doesn't go in the atmosphere. Batteries? I'm not sure what the question is. There's a lot of stuff that does into them and fossil fuels is present everywhere, for example powering the mining trucks. Except the way to get rid of fossil fuel powered mining trucks is to have EV semis, which need EV pickup trucks, which need EV passenger cars. That is, it's a virtuous cycle where more EVs cause prices to go down and more EVs to exist. You can plainly see this cycle play out over the last decade and it's only going to accelerate. Energy? Well, this is simple - it depends on where you make EVs. Plenty of jurisdictions have very low carbon electricity.
  - brenden2 7y ago
    Raw material extraction, smelting, refining, shipping and so on all depend on fossil fuels (I haven't heard of any electric ships yet). Batteries in particular are known for having a significant carbon footprint[0], though to Elon's credit he's trying to change this (but it's a long, long way off). [0]: https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/22026518/lithium-batteries-dirty-secret-manufacturing-them-leaves-massive-carbon-footprint https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/220...
johnwalkr 7y ago
Well this ticks all the boxes. I'm from Alberta, worked in oil and gas there for a while and was the Chief Engineer for a Google Lunar Xprize team (one of the relatively successful ones that is still around). Now still working there in aerospace, and some of our customers are coincidentally working with us as they are diversifying away from oil and gas. Tar Sands is one of the most expensive and damaging ways to produce oil, yet Alberta is still clinging on and propping up the industry, even a decade after the Middle East players, with much more abundant resources and cheaper production, started to diversify. A sensible plan is to shift energy production to renewables and save oil to make plastic later. Maybe develop oil sands technology at a slow pace
- lawnchair_larry 7y ago
  What other renewable form of energy could they develop and export? People who suggest that they could just put up solar panels (do they even make sense that far north?) and turbines don’t seem to get that they aren’t extracting the oil for themselves, they are selling it.

brenden2 7y ago

Where do you think all the plastic, batteries, and energy required to run the manufacturing process for those EVs comes from? I'll give you a hint: it's not renewables.

Retric 7y ago
69% of oil is directly used for transportation, if that falls by even 10% oil sands are going away, if it falls by 30% fracking is going away. Home heating etc make up the bulk of the remainder, with plastics being a small fraction. They may be picked up again in 40 years to enable plastic manufacturing, but commodity extraction is all about boom and bust cycles. PS: Buying a 10 gallons of gas for a fillip is 63 pounds. How frequently are you buying 63 pounds of plastic?
nopinsight 7y ago
Would the supply of plastic and other products from low-cost producers of petrochemicals be sufficient for global demand? Can low-cost producers shift their product mix toward more chemicals and less oil?
dashundchen 7y ago
According to the EIA, in the US almost 70% of oil is used for transportation. The US consumes a fifth of the worlds oil. Even if you committed to fossil fuel only for industrial processes (which I don't see why you would), if used to electrify transportation you'd eliminate a majority of the demand for oil. Plastics usage is marginal compared to transportation. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc...
martythemaniak 7y ago
That's a very dense question. Plastics are a sort of byproduct of oil production and account for like (IIRC) 5% of them. You can't sustain an industry on that. If their price goes up, there'll be lots of substitutes popping up, but we should also note that. It should also be noted that plastics, by themselves, don't contribute to climate change - the carbon doesn't go in the atmosphere. Batteries? I'm not sure what the question is. There's a lot of stuff that does into them and fossil fuels is present everywhere, for example powering the mining trucks. Except the way to get rid of fossil fuel powered mining trucks is to have EV semis, which need EV pickup trucks, which need EV passenger cars. That is, it's a virtuous cycle where more EVs cause prices to go down and more EVs to exist. You can plainly see this cycle play out over the last decade and it's only going to accelerate. Energy? Well, this is simple - it depends on where you make EVs. Plenty of jurisdictions have very low carbon electricity.
- brenden2 7y ago
  Raw material extraction, smelting, refining, shipping and so on all depend on fossil fuels (I haven't heard of any electric ships yet). Batteries in particular are known for having a significant carbon footprint[0], though to Elon's credit he's trying to change this (but it's a long, long way off). [0]: https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/22026518/lithium-batteries-dirty-secret-manufacturing-them-leaves-massive-carbon-footprint https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/220...

johnwalkr 7y ago

Well this ticks all the boxes. I'm from Alberta, worked in oil and gas there for a while and was the Chief Engineer for a Google Lunar Xprize team (one of the relatively successful ones that is still around). Now still working there in aerospace, and some of our customers are coincidentally working with us as they are diversifying away from oil and gas. Tar Sands is one of the most expensive and damaging ways to produce oil, yet Alberta is still clinging on and propping up the industry, even a decade after the Middle East players, with much more abundant resources and cheaper production, started to diversify. A sensible plan is to shift energy production to renewables and save oil to make plastic later. Maybe develop oil sands technology at a slow pace

lawnchair_larry 7y ago
What other renewable form of energy could they develop and export? People who suggest that they could just put up solar panels (do they even make sense that far north?) and turbines don’t seem to get that they aren’t extracting the oil for themselves, they are selling it.