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Lots of legitimate questions about statistical significance, but it's strong enough that Fauci likes it[1], which tells me it can't all be bunk (given how cauti

Lots of legitimate questions about statistical significance, but it's strong enough that Fauci likes it[1], which tells me it can't all be bunk (given how cautious he's been about *quine): > White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday that data from a coronavirus drug trial testing Gilead Sciences’ antiviral drug remdesivir showed “quite good news” and sets a new standard of care for Covid-19 patients. > Speaking to reporters from the White House, Fauci said he was told data from the trial showed a “clear cut positive effect in diminishing time to recover.” [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/dr-anthony-fauci-says-data-from-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial-shows-quite-good-news.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/dr-anthony-fauci-says-data-f...

usaar333 7y ago
That's from a more powered US trial, not the one in China. The argument is that Giliad basically got "unlucky" with this China one (insignificant number of patients/deaths to nullify hypothesis Remdesivir does work)
- khuey 7y ago
  The Chinese trial got aborted early due to lack of patients as I understand it so that's not that surprising. It also means this isn't any sort of "miracle" drug though.
  - lbeltrame 7y ago
    Nevertheless, it is a drug that has shown some positive efficacy in a real trial (the NIH one, I mean). IMO this is a significant step forward. I hope other viable treatments emerge from the other trials on drugs set to close by June.
DoofusOfDeath 7y ago
Depending on the specifics of "time to recover", this could be pretty good news. My wife became symptomatic with COVID-19 about a month ago. For the first ~8 days, she was in pretty rough shape, although happily she didn't need hospitalization. But the pace of recovery is slower than I've seen with any flu. She still needs to significantly limit her activity or else her pulse gets high and she gets short of breath. (The effect is much greater than you'd expect from someone being bedridden for 8 days.) Each day is a little better, so hopefully she'll make a full recovery. But if I had to spitball a linear extrapolation of when she'll be back to 100%, I'd say another few weeks at the soonest. Obviously we'd rather have a drug that saves lives and/or prevents long-term disability. But if remdesivir could have hastened my wife's recovery by several weeks, our kids and my professional work would have been much better off.
fspeech 7y ago
That report on what Fauci said is a bit garbled. The NIH news release is here: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19 https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-sho...

usaar333 7y ago

That's from a more powered US trial, not the one in China. The argument is that Giliad basically got "unlucky" with this China one (insignificant number of patients/deaths to nullify hypothesis Remdesivir does work)

khuey 7y ago
The Chinese trial got aborted early due to lack of patients as I understand it so that's not that surprising. It also means this isn't any sort of "miracle" drug though.
- lbeltrame 7y ago
  Nevertheless, it is a drug that has shown some positive efficacy in a real trial (the NIH one, I mean). IMO this is a significant step forward. I hope other viable treatments emerge from the other trials on drugs set to close by June.

DoofusOfDeath 7y ago

Depending on the specifics of "time to recover", this could be pretty good news. My wife became symptomatic with COVID-19 about a month ago. For the first ~8 days, she was in pretty rough shape, although happily she didn't need hospitalization. But the pace of recovery is slower than I've seen with any flu. She still needs to significantly limit her activity or else her pulse gets high and she gets short of breath. (The effect is much greater than you'd expect from someone being bedridden for 8 days.) Each day is a little better, so hopefully she'll make a full recovery. But if I had to spitball a linear extrapolation of when she'll be back to 100%, I'd say another few weeks at the soonest. Obviously we'd rather have a drug that saves lives and/or prevents long-term disability. But if remdesivir could have hastened my wife's recovery by several weeks, our kids and my professional work would have been much better off.

fspeech 7y ago

That report on what Fauci said is a bit garbled. The NIH news release is here: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19 https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-sho...