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Given that that Jan and Feb seemed largely fine, the rate of decline in March was probably around 3x the quarter's headline figure -- call it -15%, give or take
by cs702 7y ago
Given that that Jan and Feb seemed largely fine, the rate of decline in March was probably around 3x the quarter's headline figure -- call it -15%, give or take.
April was much worse, without a doubt. Anything between a -25% and -50% GDP decline seems possible for April.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y agoAnnualized numbers can always be a bit misleading, but applying them to individual months starts to get silly. What's the annualized GDP decline of weekends?
- cs702 7y agoOf course. My point is that the figure for the quarter understates the economic shock in March.
- syncsynchalt 7y agoThe decline was only 1.2%, 4.8% is after a 4x "annualizing" multiplier.
- cs702 7y agoOf course. 4x to anualize a quarter. To guesstimate for just one month, we need 12x, i.e., multiply by another 3x. And of course, all this ignores compounding, seasonality, etc. The point I was tying to make -- and evidently, I did a poor job at articulating it -- is that the annualized rate of GDP change for the quarter understates the economic shock in the month of March. And April is likely worse than March.