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US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

47 points by yogiUSA 6y ago

icelancer 6y ago
It'll get far worse than that, with the Western Pact of States looking to have 80% of the lockdown through at least June, with no concrete plans or metrics to open up beyond that.
- happytoexplain 6y ago
  No concrete plan to open up? Isn't that exactly what you want in a pandemic situation? You can only forecast such a thing so far ahead.
  - JonathonW 6y ago
    A "concrete plan" in this situation would include milestones (based on infection rates and the like) for easing restrictions and for re-imposing them if things regress, rather than specific dates, which can't really be forecast. For example, here's Nashville's phased-reopening plan: https://www.asafenashville.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Roadmap_For_Reopening_Nashville_Grid.pdf https://www.asafenashville.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Ro... ... It's based around phased reopenings of businesses as specific periods of time elapse with an improvement in metrics.
- aviraldg 6y ago
  https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California-Roadmap-to-Modify-the-Stay-at-Home-Order.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California...
  - usaar333 6y ago
    Those aren't really metrics - it's very subjective. e.g. I read those 6 metrics and I'm like "ok, Bay Area can lift SIP".
sheeshkebab 6y ago
“Opinion polls have generally shown a bipartisan majority of Americans want to remain at home to protect themselves from the coronavirus, despite the impact to the economy.” I’ll trust public opinion with my next health decision, it’s always spot on.
- jarfil 6y ago
  Reopening or not is a simple balance between "risk of avoidable deaths" vs. "risk of economic damage". Different people put a different value on each one of those, which makes it a political decision.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  I’m not sure if you are being sarcastic. People don’t want to get sick especially given the enormous costs of hospitalization in the US.
- eric_b 6y ago
  It's remarkable that people are begging their governors to take away their civil liberties. Table 2 is all a rational person should need to see to realize the quarantine is the work of fear-mongering by politicians and the media: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm (For those who need an explanation - over the last two months, the data compiled in this chart shows that for people under 54, they are vanishingly unlikely to die from COVID. It shows that there is no rational reason that people under 54 should be locked down. The flu killed 5x more people under 24 in the last two months than COVID did)
  - woofyman 6y ago
    Covid-19 deaths are what they are because social distancing works. Even then, it’s the second cause of death. Only surpassed by heart disease.
  - jedberg 6y ago
    I'm not sure what I'm supposed to see in Table 2. I see more dead than Influenza. And that's despite most everything being closed. We don't close the country for influenza. So clearly this thing is way worse.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
r00fus 6y ago
Opening up does at least one thing: removes the ability for workers to claim unemployment benefits if the employer also opens up. More zero-hour contracts? You betcha.
- downvoteme1 6y ago
  Even if the employer opens up, they will not call all of their workers back. So the workers who are not called back can still claim unemployment .
- LanceH 6y ago
  Reduction in hours is a reason to claim unemployment.
  - asdf21 6y ago
    I've never heard of that... in what state?
    - sfkdjf9j3j 6y ago
      All (US) states have partial unemployment
  - dexterdog 6y ago
    What about reduction in salary for FTEs?
    - LanceH 6y ago
      From Texas: "To be eligible for benefits based on your job separation, you must be either unemployed or working reduced hours through no fault of your own. Examples include layoff, reduction in hours or wages not related to misconduct, being fired for reasons other than misconduct, or quitting with good cause related to work." Also quitting due to significant change in work agreement is a valid reason for unemployment benefits. Every state is probably different.
brightball 6y ago
We have to find a way to get to a new normal, where we can go about our daily lives with some reasonable level of safety measures. It’s simply not sustainable to maintain a shut down long term.
- newacct583 6y ago
  Isn't what this article is about? "Some" states are "opening up", so I guess we'll get data soon as to how much economic benefit they got vs. how many lives were lost. This doesn't sound, to me, like a very ethical experiment given that the cost of waiting it out for another two-ish months is comparatively easily calculated and not terribly "doomsday" in scope. Whereas a return to the days of late March where the death count was doubling twice a week very much... is. Now... in practice? The "lockdown" won't really be released like that in these states, because people aren't going to be willing to travel or dine even if it's "legal". So these states will probably see a moderately worst outbreak and see moderately better results, and we'll all get to continue these arguments forever. Probably. Or it could be a total disaster. I wouldn't bet on that result, exactly, but I wouldn't be shocked if it happened either. For evidence: consider pork production. That is an "essential" industry. It's never been "locked down". Yet per the news today I see that 25% of the industry is effectively shut down by viral outbreaks anyway. That's what we should expect if we insist people go to work -- unexpected, uncontrolled outbreaks in locations and businesses and industries. We're not going to get to anything resembling a normal economy.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    That's interesting, I hadn't seen calculations like that. What's the cost of waiting it out for another two-ish months?
    - newacct583 6y ago
      The point is: not much more than the cost of "opening up" right now. Because "lockdown" isn't magic the government can control at a whime. People aren't going to engage in a full employment economy if they're justifiably scared of dying. Or, possibly but not probably: the cost of opening up is vastly higher if we end up looking at 2-300k needlessly dead Americans.
Seibai 6y ago
It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would. People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two. I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.
- sojournerc 6y ago
  Where I am in Colorado the decision to re-open is being made at the county and city level based on local information Rural areas that are less impacted may reopen with little risk. More urban areas need to be more careful. I don't think it's necessary to spread fear about reopening. Hopefully your local authority is well-informed enough to make good decisions regarding reopening.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    I live in a rural region of ~300,000 people with less than 100 reported cases. 2000 negative tests. The last I heard one of the county public health officials say anything, it was that they don't have enough testing to know what is going on in the community.
- eric_b 6y ago
  Eh, we'll see. I happen to think the economic consequences are far worse than the health ones. Time will tell which of us is right. I bet if you were a small business owner who was going to fold your life's work because of the lockdown, instead of a privileged tech worker, you wouldn't be singing the same tune.
  - 616c 6y ago
    Are you a small business owner? You seem to have very strong opinions aligned with your take on their point of view, so I'm curious.
    - 6y ago
paypalcust83 6y ago
Testing first, scientific analysis next, and opening last. Or people can go to an Oklahoma restaurant packed shoulder-to-shoulder without masks with their governor and expedite the restart the pandemic curve to end up with 100k more deaths.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  What specific scientific analyses would you like to see performed? Some testing has already happened; maybe the answers you're looking for are available there.
- bufferoverflow 6y ago
  Oh, it will be more than 100K deaths if there are no measures at all. Once you run out of healthcare capacity, you're on your own.
jinushaun 6y ago
"Royal Rose, 39, owner of a tattoo studio in Greeley, Colorado, told Reuters. Rose said she was reopening her shop after closing a month ago, not because she wants to but because bills are piling up and she feels she has no choice." I don't think people will be rushing out to get tattoos...
- aaron-lebo 6y ago
  You must not know many people with tattoos. ;)
ptero 6y ago
Seems that both sides, lock-down-until-proven-safe and stop-all-restrictions-yesterday, at least in the US are more focused on spin than facts. What we need is an open and honest discussion, where conflicting opinions are not ridiculed or shut down but vigorously debated. This would put a premium on clear logic substantiated by numbers and estimates on error bounds. And explanations that an average engineer can follow; not super-complicated things that require a supercomputer to run and a bunch of PhDs to interpret. In the end it comes down to figuring out what additional risks we, as a society, are willing to accept to stave off specific erosions of personal freedoms and economic impacts. If we do not learn to make this choice consciously it will be made for us by whoever is loudest today (and swapped by whoever is loudest tomorrow).
- germinalphrase 6y ago
  We don’t have a (publicly facing) political system that rewards nuance.
  - ptero 6y ago
    I am not even talking about nuance, just some basic engineering clarity; and just between friends, no politicians nearby. I have seen a couple of times that the topic got discussed between otherwise calm, smart people. Both times it very quickly got into name calling, no technical arguments involved.
    - mythrwy 6y ago
      Engineering clarity and politics apparently don't mix. Not a good state to be in. How did democracy ever become "the loudest bullshitter calls the shots"? How sustainable is this?
    - germinalphrase 6y ago
      Of course, I agree with you. I just don’t see how our political/media class can change. The incentives are aligned against your/our view.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
shirro 6y ago
Just another Pearl Harbor/9-11 for the US. They could have responded early and mitigated this like Australia/NZ/Taiwan but now there is massive community spread there is no right answer. You open things up and more people die. You close them down and people likely die from poverty related things. The only sane solution was to act early and prevent this. Why even have intelligence services, scientific expertise, governments, infectious disease agencies and emergency plans if they are all ignored until it is too late. I don't understand how so many countries messed this up.
- fred_is_fred 6y ago
  Mistakes were made, but it's a lot easier on an island.
  - shirro 6y ago
    Being an island means nothing with air travel. But being remote certainly helped some countries a lot.
- jobigoud 6y ago
  The weirdest part is that it all happened in slow motion. First China, then Iran, then Italy... No secret intelligence needed. But every single time other countries thought it wouldn't happen to them.
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > but now there is massive community spread there is no right answer. The right answer is SIP plus invest massively in building out testing and contact tracing capacity so you can reopen while replacing SIP with targeted quarantines of the infected and exposed. There's no painless answer, and there's no answer as good as a better early response would have been, but there's a pretty clear right answer.
- Pick-A-Hill2019 6y ago
  Not a specific commentary on the US reaction (or any particular country) but some of it comes down to complacency. Zika, Ebola, SARS, MERS and various other outbreaks occured and were contained which lead to a general feeling that (especially in the early days) this would be another 'Non-Event'. It reminds me of a post a few months back asking if Y2K was actually a problem. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22556156 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22556156

47 points by yogiUSA 6y ago

It'll get far worse than that, with the Western Pact of States looking to have 80% of the lockdown through at least June, with no concrete plans or metrics to open up beyond that.

happytoexplain 6y ago
No concrete plan to open up? Isn't that exactly what you want in a pandemic situation? You can only forecast such a thing so far ahead.
- JonathonW 6y ago
  A "concrete plan" in this situation would include milestones (based on infection rates and the like) for easing restrictions and for re-imposing them if things regress, rather than specific dates, which can't really be forecast. For example, here's Nashville's phased-reopening plan: https://www.asafenashville.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Roadmap_For_Reopening_Nashville_Grid.pdf https://www.asafenashville.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Ro... ... It's based around phased reopenings of businesses as specific periods of time elapse with an improvement in metrics.
aviraldg 6y ago
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California-Roadmap-to-Modify-the-Stay-at-Home-Order.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California...
- usaar333 6y ago
  Those aren't really metrics - it's very subjective. e.g. I read those 6 metrics and I'm like "ok, Bay Area can lift SIP".

sheeshkebab 6y ago

“Opinion polls have generally shown a bipartisan majority of Americans want to remain at home to protect themselves from the coronavirus, despite the impact to the economy.” I’ll trust public opinion with my next health decision, it’s always spot on.

jarfil 6y ago
Reopening or not is a simple balance between "risk of avoidable deaths" vs. "risk of economic damage". Different people put a different value on each one of those, which makes it a political decision.
dogma1138 6y ago
I’m not sure if you are being sarcastic. People don’t want to get sick especially given the enormous costs of hospitalization in the US.
eric_b 6y ago
It's remarkable that people are begging their governors to take away their civil liberties. Table 2 is all a rational person should need to see to realize the quarantine is the work of fear-mongering by politicians and the media: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm (For those who need an explanation - over the last two months, the data compiled in this chart shows that for people under 54, they are vanishingly unlikely to die from COVID. It shows that there is no rational reason that people under 54 should be locked down. The flu killed 5x more people under 24 in the last two months than COVID did)
- woofyman 6y ago
  Covid-19 deaths are what they are because social distancing works. Even then, it’s the second cause of death. Only surpassed by heart disease.
- jedberg 6y ago
  I'm not sure what I'm supposed to see in Table 2. I see more dead than Influenza. And that's despite most everything being closed. We don't close the country for influenza. So clearly this thing is way worse.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

r00fus 6y ago

Opening up does at least one thing: removes the ability for workers to claim unemployment benefits if the employer also opens up. More zero-hour contracts? You betcha.

downvoteme1 6y ago
Even if the employer opens up, they will not call all of their workers back. So the workers who are not called back can still claim unemployment .
LanceH 6y ago
Reduction in hours is a reason to claim unemployment.
- asdf21 6y ago
  I've never heard of that... in what state?
  - sfkdjf9j3j 6y ago
    All (US) states have partial unemployment
- dexterdog 6y ago
  What about reduction in salary for FTEs?
  - LanceH 6y ago
    From Texas: "To be eligible for benefits based on your job separation, you must be either unemployed or working reduced hours through no fault of your own. Examples include layoff, reduction in hours or wages not related to misconduct, being fired for reasons other than misconduct, or quitting with good cause related to work." Also quitting due to significant change in work agreement is a valid reason for unemployment benefits. Every state is probably different.

brightball 6y ago

We have to find a way to get to a new normal, where we can go about our daily lives with some reasonable level of safety measures. It’s simply not sustainable to maintain a shut down long term.

newacct583 6y ago
Isn't what this article is about? "Some" states are "opening up", so I guess we'll get data soon as to how much economic benefit they got vs. how many lives were lost. This doesn't sound, to me, like a very ethical experiment given that the cost of waiting it out for another two-ish months is comparatively easily calculated and not terribly "doomsday" in scope. Whereas a return to the days of late March where the death count was doubling twice a week very much... is. Now... in practice? The "lockdown" won't really be released like that in these states, because people aren't going to be willing to travel or dine even if it's "legal". So these states will probably see a moderately worst outbreak and see moderately better results, and we'll all get to continue these arguments forever. Probably. Or it could be a total disaster. I wouldn't bet on that result, exactly, but I wouldn't be shocked if it happened either. For evidence: consider pork production. That is an "essential" industry. It's never been "locked down". Yet per the news today I see that 25% of the industry is effectively shut down by viral outbreaks anyway. That's what we should expect if we insist people go to work -- unexpected, uncontrolled outbreaks in locations and businesses and industries. We're not going to get to anything resembling a normal economy.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  That's interesting, I hadn't seen calculations like that. What's the cost of waiting it out for another two-ish months?
  - newacct583 6y ago
    The point is: not much more than the cost of "opening up" right now. Because "lockdown" isn't magic the government can control at a whime. People aren't going to engage in a full employment economy if they're justifiably scared of dying. Or, possibly but not probably: the cost of opening up is vastly higher if we end up looking at 2-300k needlessly dead Americans.

Seibai 6y ago

It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would. People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two. I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.

sojournerc 6y ago
Where I am in Colorado the decision to re-open is being made at the county and city level based on local information Rural areas that are less impacted may reopen with little risk. More urban areas need to be more careful. I don't think it's necessary to spread fear about reopening. Hopefully your local authority is well-informed enough to make good decisions regarding reopening.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  I live in a rural region of ~300,000 people with less than 100 reported cases. 2000 negative tests. The last I heard one of the county public health officials say anything, it was that they don't have enough testing to know what is going on in the community.
eric_b 6y ago
Eh, we'll see. I happen to think the economic consequences are far worse than the health ones. Time will tell which of us is right. I bet if you were a small business owner who was going to fold your life's work because of the lockdown, instead of a privileged tech worker, you wouldn't be singing the same tune.
- 616c 6y ago
  Are you a small business owner? You seem to have very strong opinions aligned with your take on their point of view, so I'm curious.
  - 6y ago

paypalcust83 6y ago

Testing first, scientific analysis next, and opening last. Or people can go to an Oklahoma restaurant packed shoulder-to-shoulder without masks with their governor and expedite the restart the pandemic curve to end up with 100k more deaths.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
What specific scientific analyses would you like to see performed? Some testing has already happened; maybe the answers you're looking for are available there.
bufferoverflow 6y ago
Oh, it will be more than 100K deaths if there are no measures at all. Once you run out of healthcare capacity, you're on your own.

jinushaun 6y ago

"Royal Rose, 39, owner of a tattoo studio in Greeley, Colorado, told Reuters. Rose said she was reopening her shop after closing a month ago, not because she wants to but because bills are piling up and she feels she has no choice." I don't think people will be rushing out to get tattoos...

aaron-lebo 6y ago
You must not know many people with tattoos. ;)

ptero 6y ago

Seems that both sides, lock-down-until-proven-safe and stop-all-restrictions-yesterday, at least in the US are more focused on spin than facts. What we need is an open and honest discussion, where conflicting opinions are not ridiculed or shut down but vigorously debated. This would put a premium on clear logic substantiated by numbers and estimates on error bounds. And explanations that an average engineer can follow; not super-complicated things that require a supercomputer to run and a bunch of PhDs to interpret. In the end it comes down to figuring out what additional risks we, as a society, are willing to accept to stave off specific erosions of personal freedoms and economic impacts. If we do not learn to make this choice consciously it will be made for us by whoever is loudest today (and swapped by whoever is loudest tomorrow).

germinalphrase 6y ago
We don’t have a (publicly facing) political system that rewards nuance.
- ptero 6y ago
  I am not even talking about nuance, just some basic engineering clarity; and just between friends, no politicians nearby. I have seen a couple of times that the topic got discussed between otherwise calm, smart people. Both times it very quickly got into name calling, no technical arguments involved.
  - mythrwy 6y ago
    Engineering clarity and politics apparently don't mix. Not a good state to be in. How did democracy ever become "the loudest bullshitter calls the shots"? How sustainable is this?
  - germinalphrase 6y ago
    Of course, I agree with you. I just don’t see how our political/media class can change. The incentives are aligned against your/our view.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

shirro 6y ago

Just another Pearl Harbor/9-11 for the US. They could have responded early and mitigated this like Australia/NZ/Taiwan but now there is massive community spread there is no right answer. You open things up and more people die. You close them down and people likely die from poverty related things. The only sane solution was to act early and prevent this. Why even have intelligence services, scientific expertise, governments, infectious disease agencies and emergency plans if they are all ignored until it is too late. I don't understand how so many countries messed this up.

fred_is_fred 6y ago
Mistakes were made, but it's a lot easier on an island.
- shirro 6y ago
  Being an island means nothing with air travel. But being remote certainly helped some countries a lot.
jobigoud 6y ago
The weirdest part is that it all happened in slow motion. First China, then Iran, then Italy... No secret intelligence needed. But every single time other countries thought it wouldn't happen to them.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> but now there is massive community spread there is no right answer. The right answer is SIP plus invest massively in building out testing and contact tracing capacity so you can reopen while replacing SIP with targeted quarantines of the infected and exposed. There's no painless answer, and there's no answer as good as a better early response would have been, but there's a pretty clear right answer.
Pick-A-Hill2019 6y ago
Not a specific commentary on the US reaction (or any particular country) but some of it comes down to complacency. Zika, Ebola, SARS, MERS and various other outbreaks occured and were contained which lead to a general feeling that (especially in the early days) this would be another 'Non-Event'. It reminds me of a post a few months back asking if Y2K was actually a problem. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22556156 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22556156