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We are down 50% from the peak of Covid deaths in California. It seems likely we will have one or more days of zero Covid deaths before the end of May. That is t

We are down 50% from the peak of Covid deaths in California. It seems likely we will have one or more days of zero Covid deaths before the end of May. That is the measure I assume they are going for at this point. Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/cali...

vanniv 6y ago
California has no intent to ever end the lockdowns. On February 26th, 2077, the Mayor of San Francisco and the Governor of California will sign an extension of the temporary emergency lockdown until "at least April 1st"
- TaylorAlexander 6y ago
  This is such a silly position.
  - vanniv 6y ago
    Watch Newsom's press conference yesterday. He said that he won't ever release the lockdown, no matter what people say or do.
cactus2093 6y ago
This is untrue. We may have plateaued but we haven't yet seen a significant drop from the peak yet. 4 days ago there were 115 deaths, then 93 the next day, then 89 the next, that's as high as the peak you're referring to. Source - daily department of health releases https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/New-Release-2020.aspx https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/New-Release-2020.... The drop you are inferring from your graph appears to be a be a reflection of a noisy data set, and the graph is a week out of date.
- bengebre 6y ago
  Yeah that's definitely a day-of-week/reporting dump effect making that spike. The 7 day rolling data for deaths shows CA is only 6% below the most recent peak: https://www.deptofnumbers.com/covid19/california/#deaths https://www.deptofnumbers.com/covid19/california/#deaths nb: that's my site
  - qppo 6y ago
    Not to mention that death lags infection by 1-2 weeks, your site shows that pretty nicely (the lull in new infections several weeks ago mirrors the lull in new deaths). We haven't crested the peak in death until a few weeks after we crest new infections, and it doesn't look like we've done that yet.
- joe_the_user 6y ago
  Remember death rates are an effect that's delayed several weeks. Positive tests are skewed by how many tests are done. Hospitalizations would be a better figure but those don't really seem to be available on a daily basis. This chart claims to show but it's 212 one day and zero the next, which just showing they're aggregate or something. https://covid-19.direct/state/CA?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/CA?tab=daily
- killion 6y ago
  That we have dropped 50% from the peak is true according to the site you linked as well... https://update.covid19.ca.gov https://update.covid19.ca.gov 115 deaths on April 22nd. 45 deaths on April 26th.
- usaar333 6y ago
  We should separate LA from ex-LA. Bay area has peaked.. if you exclude nursing homes (which the lockdown relatively failed to protect), it's even sharper of a drop. https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea
  - vkou 6y ago
    Unless you intend to setup border checkpoints, with two-week quarantine camps for people traveling from LA to the Bay area, you have to look holistically at the region. It doesn't make one whit of sense to ban flights from Paris, but allow anyone who feels like it to drive up from LA.
leuty 6y ago
And London Breed was spotted at the beach as she orders people to stay in. It's nuts! https://giphy.com/gifs/free-combined-6q4yfAvVFDCCY https://giphy.com/gifs/free-combined-6q4yfAvVFDCCY

vanniv 6y ago

California has no intent to ever end the lockdowns. On February 26th, 2077, the Mayor of San Francisco and the Governor of California will sign an extension of the temporary emergency lockdown until "at least April 1st"

TaylorAlexander 6y ago
This is such a silly position.
- vanniv 6y ago
  Watch Newsom's press conference yesterday. He said that he won't ever release the lockdown, no matter what people say or do.

cactus2093 6y ago

This is untrue. We may have plateaued but we haven't yet seen a significant drop from the peak yet. 4 days ago there were 115 deaths, then 93 the next day, then 89 the next, that's as high as the peak you're referring to. Source - daily department of health releases https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/New-Release-2020.aspx https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/New-Release-2020.... The drop you are inferring from your graph appears to be a be a reflection of a noisy data set, and the graph is a week out of date.

bengebre 6y ago
Yeah that's definitely a day-of-week/reporting dump effect making that spike. The 7 day rolling data for deaths shows CA is only 6% below the most recent peak: https://www.deptofnumbers.com/covid19/california/#deaths https://www.deptofnumbers.com/covid19/california/#deaths nb: that's my site
- qppo 6y ago
  Not to mention that death lags infection by 1-2 weeks, your site shows that pretty nicely (the lull in new infections several weeks ago mirrors the lull in new deaths). We haven't crested the peak in death until a few weeks after we crest new infections, and it doesn't look like we've done that yet.
joe_the_user 6y ago
Remember death rates are an effect that's delayed several weeks. Positive tests are skewed by how many tests are done. Hospitalizations would be a better figure but those don't really seem to be available on a daily basis. This chart claims to show but it's 212 one day and zero the next, which just showing they're aggregate or something. https://covid-19.direct/state/CA?tab=daily https://covid-19.direct/state/CA?tab=daily
killion 6y ago
That we have dropped 50% from the peak is true according to the site you linked as well... https://update.covid19.ca.gov https://update.covid19.ca.gov 115 deaths on April 22nd. 45 deaths on April 26th.
usaar333 6y ago
We should separate LA from ex-LA. Bay area has peaked.. if you exclude nursing homes (which the lockdown relatively failed to protect), it's even sharper of a drop. https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea
- vkou 6y ago
  Unless you intend to setup border checkpoints, with two-week quarantine camps for people traveling from LA to the Bay area, you have to look holistically at the region. It doesn't make one whit of sense to ban flights from Paris, but allow anyone who feels like it to drive up from LA.

leuty 6y ago

And London Breed was spotted at the beach as she orders people to stay in. It's nuts! https://giphy.com/gifs/free-combined-6q4yfAvVFDCCY https://giphy.com/gifs/free-combined-6q4yfAvVFDCCY