3 ms·
Those are the graphs we really need. Especially when you consider things like the dramatic drop in reported mortality from things like heart disease the last f
by vanniv 6y ago
Those are the graphs we really need.
Especially when you consider things like the dramatic drop in reported mortality from things like heart disease the last few months according to the preliminary data.
But preliminary data isn't very good quality ever, so it is hard to tell how much of that is just bad data, how much is coronavirus killing people that were going to die in only weeks anyway, and how much is misreporting.
But in six months or so, when the data start to settle down, we will find out which direction we are miscounting in. (Clearly we are miscounting in both directions by significant amounts, but it's hard to tell the comparative magnitude)
- ceejayoz 6y agoUnless you think deaths are going to go to zero next month, we can put the "is coronavirus killing people that were going to die in only weeks anyway" theory to bed. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoIt's certainly not the case that 100% of coronavirus victims were about to die anyway. But it seems very plausible that 10% were, and I think it's fair to consider that a significant overcount.
- dvdkhlng 6y agoI think the question that you're trying to ask is answered in part by the publication "COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost:" [1] TL;DR: more than a decade of life-time lost on average per victim that dies of novel coronavirus. [1] https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75/v1 https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75/v1
- Gibbon1 6y agoThis is what I read about the Great Smog in London. People tried to explain away deaths by saying all the people that died would have died in a few months anyways. But not supported by death records.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoEyeballing the graphs, this looks consistent with a story that 10% of cases are at 0-1. (But I'm bad at eyeballing, so do let me know if the data says otherwise!)
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]