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The forced economic shutdown has decimated the entrepreneurial class in the US, particularly small businesses, I anecdotally know of many (non-tech) examples in

The forced economic shutdown has decimated the entrepreneurial class in the US, particularly small businesses, I anecdotally know of many (non-tech) examples in my own circle of friends. The jobs they created will not come back for the foreseeable future in many cases. It isn’t like they can just reboot with a clean slate, much of their capital was destroyed in the process. For a lot of businesses, “pausing” them is a death sentence, and there won’t be nearly as many people stepping up to replace them.

capdeck 7y ago
> there won’t be nearly as many people stepping up to replace them. Strongly disagree with the last point. If there is one lesson that I remember from the history of US -- entrepreneurial spirit is the reason this country exists in the first place. My only worry is that Google, Amazon and Facebook will use this time for huge land grabs in all niches. Many stores that closed have already been on their last legs. And in the digital realm there can only be one winner (try beating Amazon at online sales or Google in search...) So you are right in the sense that it will be even harder for many people to step up against the tech giants - but this is a whole different issue.
- jandrewrogers 7y ago
  Sorry, but that is a naive view. If you destroy the life savings of half the people that had the courage and interest to start a business, you’ve removed them from the game. You can’t start a business with no money. Do you really believe in this environment that millions of people will suddenly have the newfound urge to invest all of their (depleted) life savings in a small business? Many of the businesses that closed were profitable businesses in every sense. The government essentially outlawed most small businesses but left the business owners holding all the liabilities of their business. Few small business owners are wealthy enough to eat that kind of loss. Imagine if the government unilaterally destroyed your house but left you with the mortgage. What are the odds that you can buy another house at that point? Pretty slim I’d say.
  - marcus_holmes 7y ago
    This assumes there's a choice. If there's no jobs to be had, then the choice is "sell stuff or starve". Not all small businesses need capital to start. And a lot that did start with capital didn't really need to (I've seen so many people rent an office as their first move, for a business they could easily run from home). To use your analogy: imagine if the government wrecked your house, but left you with the mortgage. You can't move anywhere, can't buy another place, can't rent anywhere. You'll have to rebuild from the rubble.
    - heavenlyblue 7y ago
      So what you’re essentially saying is that it’s small businesses that should be paying for COVID-19?
      - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        Nobody should be paying for COVID-19, but everyone will be. I don't think there's any amount of financial magic or government support that can rescue small businesses from an indefinite loss of all their revenue.
    - 101404 7y ago
      Sure, that would make an inspiring Hollywood movie. But in real world terms, it just sounds like a large number of Uber drivers.
    - _curious_ 7y ago
      "You'll have to rebuild from the rubble." This terrifies people more than anything...and the more entitled someone is, the more they fear it.
  - engineeringwoke 7y ago
    You are the one that is naive. I will translate. You want to keep kicking the can down the road, so that someone that isn't you will hold the bag. Because someone will hold the bag for all this, and it isn't fair. So? Life isn't fair. Pandemics happen, and the government can't possibly bail out everyone. He's right. Add a UBI and nationalize healthcare. It's not complicated; the elites just don't want it. The ones like you.
- Razengan 7y ago
  > My only worry is that Google, Amazon and Facebook will use this time for huge land grabs in all niches. That is exactly what I was thinking of while reading the grandparent comment: that one of the worst things to fear from this crisis, is coming out of it into a world with further consolidation of global power into a handful of entities, and even more authoritarian governments. The pieces are already being put into place, like contact tracing APIs, however well-intentioned they may be. The stratification between the rulers (who can already still go anywhere and comfortably wait out a global crisis on private estates or islands) and the ruled, the monitors and the monitored, could end up being worse than any fictional dystopia.
  - Reelin 7y ago
    > like contact tracing APIs, however well-intentioned they may be I share many of the concerns you've expressed, but worrying about the contract tracing API that was recently put forward is (hopefully) unwarranted. A faithful implementation of the joint spec published by Apple and Google would preserve your anonymity until and unless you published your secret keys. Moreover, the overall design is cryptographically sound (unless I missed something recently?) and appears to be decentralized (at least in principle) so in theory you won't have to trust the behavior of any binary blobs unless you choose to do so. For more insight into the design (and security) of such systems, you might take a look at the TCN protocol (https://github.com/TCNCoalition/TCN https://github.com/TCNCoalition/TCN) or the DP-3T protocol (https://github.com/DP-3T/documents https://github.com/DP-3T/documents).
    - maayank 7y ago
      Let's assume there is no technical way the contact API can be misused. You've still conditioned massive swaths of the population to be electronically tracked, boiling frog and all.
      - Reelin 7y ago
        > You've still conditioned massive swaths of the population to be electronically tracked, boiling frog and all. I don't understand what you mean by tracked here? Until and unless you release your secret keys, the numbers your phone was broadcasting are just random gibberish to anyone other than you. If you have Bluetooth enabled in the first place, you're already broadcasting a MAC address. Many devices now rotate that specifically to prevent tracking, making it equivalent. In fact the only real differences from your device's MAC are the bit width (tracing numbers are significantly larger) and the fact that tracing numbers are cryptographically derived from an underlying secret. As far as conditioning massive swaths of the population to be electronically tracked, I'm afraid that ship sailed quite some time ago. Cellphones inherently reveal your (coarse) location in order to operate, modern vehicles carry extensive electronics packages that phone home to the manufacturer, and a seeming majority of people voluntarily upload significant portions of their geotagged lives to various service providers. I'm about as privacy conscious as you'll find these days, but my only concerns regarding the contract tracing API relate to battery life and the security implications of leaving Bluetooth on all the time (it seems like there's always another zero day being announced).
WalterBright 7y ago
There is precedent - losing a war. Economies do recover. Germany recovered from being bombed/burned/bankrupted flat in WW2 to become the economic powerhouse of Europe. Other countries did not recover so well, mainly because they chose more socialist economic polices. No, it wasn't because of the Marshall Plan. Most of the MP money went to other countries, not Germany.
- zinckiwi 7y ago
  Unfortunately it took a couple of generations! At a macro level, everything will be fine eventually, you're right. But short term pain regardless.
  - WalterBright 7y ago
    It took from 1948 or so to the 1960s, less than one generation. Germany also had the problem of wholesale death of its men of working age. The currency was repudiated. The government at all levels had ceased to function.
    - usrusr 7y ago
      But there was also a lot of capital brought in from outside (which isn't quite the same as a money printing spree that happens everywhere at once) and what was left of pre-war financial elite was more concerned with keeping a low profile and pretending that they were on vacation or something like that for that last ten years than with leveraging their power into an even firmer grip. It's a very different situation and those differences could be very meaningful for the outcome.
      - WalterBright 7y ago
        I don't see any reference to that in things about the German Economic Miracle.
        ciceryadam 7y ago
usrusr 7y ago
I think it will be worst for small businesses that have a strong component of physical "means of production" ownership: the means won't go away but they'll be owned by whoever happens to have access to cash at the massively parallel firesale. Business that have been based on rented property anyways are much easier to restart and landlords of otherwise healthy businesses might lose less long term if they allow skipped rent in the crisis instead of enforcing it now and then go through a lot of idle months from fluctuation due țo a series of failing new tenants. In the first days of the Italian lockdown I picked up some mentions on international news that they were intending to pause mortgages and rents for the time of the lockdown, shifting some of the economic burden on banks (who'd be far more practical to bail out) and the rentier class. Anyone able to chime in with more details about that? Was it just an announcement that was quickly subdued by well connected landlords? This approach sounds incredibly helpful and practical to me, but I could easily imagine attempts to put it in concrete legal terms to fail miserably.
_curious_ 7y ago
"The forced economic shutdown has decimated the entrepreneurial class in the US..." Not all entrepreneurs are "decimated"...many are in a position to prosper :)
- jandrewrogers 7y ago
  Technically, "decimated" denotes the destruction of a minority subset, which is how I was using it. :) My business is as good as it has ever been, and I do not work in any of the obvious verticals that would benefit from COVID-19, but all evidence suggests my case is an outlier.
  - _curious_ 7y ago
    That's nuanced yet fair; TIL
kolanos 7y ago
"decimated" means to reduce by 1/10th. I doubt that's what you meant here.

capdeck 7y ago

> there won’t be nearly as many people stepping up to replace them. Strongly disagree with the last point. If there is one lesson that I remember from the history of US -- entrepreneurial spirit is the reason this country exists in the first place. My only worry is that Google, Amazon and Facebook will use this time for huge land grabs in all niches. Many stores that closed have already been on their last legs. And in the digital realm there can only be one winner (try beating Amazon at online sales or Google in search...) So you are right in the sense that it will be even harder for many people to step up against the tech giants - but this is a whole different issue.

jandrewrogers 7y ago
Sorry, but that is a naive view. If you destroy the life savings of half the people that had the courage and interest to start a business, you’ve removed them from the game. You can’t start a business with no money. Do you really believe in this environment that millions of people will suddenly have the newfound urge to invest all of their (depleted) life savings in a small business? Many of the businesses that closed were profitable businesses in every sense. The government essentially outlawed most small businesses but left the business owners holding all the liabilities of their business. Few small business owners are wealthy enough to eat that kind of loss. Imagine if the government unilaterally destroyed your house but left you with the mortgage. What are the odds that you can buy another house at that point? Pretty slim I’d say.
- marcus_holmes 7y ago
  This assumes there's a choice. If there's no jobs to be had, then the choice is "sell stuff or starve". Not all small businesses need capital to start. And a lot that did start with capital didn't really need to (I've seen so many people rent an office as their first move, for a business they could easily run from home). To use your analogy: imagine if the government wrecked your house, but left you with the mortgage. You can't move anywhere, can't buy another place, can't rent anywhere. You'll have to rebuild from the rubble.
  - heavenlyblue 7y ago
    So what you’re essentially saying is that it’s small businesses that should be paying for COVID-19?
    - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
      Nobody should be paying for COVID-19, but everyone will be. I don't think there's any amount of financial magic or government support that can rescue small businesses from an indefinite loss of all their revenue.
  - 101404 7y ago
    Sure, that would make an inspiring Hollywood movie. But in real world terms, it just sounds like a large number of Uber drivers.
  - _curious_ 7y ago
    "You'll have to rebuild from the rubble." This terrifies people more than anything...and the more entitled someone is, the more they fear it.
- engineeringwoke 7y ago
  You are the one that is naive. I will translate. You want to keep kicking the can down the road, so that someone that isn't you will hold the bag. Because someone will hold the bag for all this, and it isn't fair. So? Life isn't fair. Pandemics happen, and the government can't possibly bail out everyone. He's right. Add a UBI and nationalize healthcare. It's not complicated; the elites just don't want it. The ones like you.
Razengan 7y ago
> My only worry is that Google, Amazon and Facebook will use this time for huge land grabs in all niches. That is exactly what I was thinking of while reading the grandparent comment: that one of the worst things to fear from this crisis, is coming out of it into a world with further consolidation of global power into a handful of entities, and even more authoritarian governments. The pieces are already being put into place, like contact tracing APIs, however well-intentioned they may be. The stratification between the rulers (who can already still go anywhere and comfortably wait out a global crisis on private estates or islands) and the ruled, the monitors and the monitored, could end up being worse than any fictional dystopia.
- Reelin 7y ago
  > like contact tracing APIs, however well-intentioned they may be I share many of the concerns you've expressed, but worrying about the contract tracing API that was recently put forward is (hopefully) unwarranted. A faithful implementation of the joint spec published by Apple and Google would preserve your anonymity until and unless you published your secret keys. Moreover, the overall design is cryptographically sound (unless I missed something recently?) and appears to be decentralized (at least in principle) so in theory you won't have to trust the behavior of any binary blobs unless you choose to do so. For more insight into the design (and security) of such systems, you might take a look at the TCN protocol (https://github.com/TCNCoalition/TCN https://github.com/TCNCoalition/TCN) or the DP-3T protocol (https://github.com/DP-3T/documents https://github.com/DP-3T/documents).
  - maayank 7y ago
    Let's assume there is no technical way the contact API can be misused. You've still conditioned massive swaths of the population to be electronically tracked, boiling frog and all.
    - Reelin 7y ago
      > You've still conditioned massive swaths of the population to be electronically tracked, boiling frog and all. I don't understand what you mean by tracked here? Until and unless you release your secret keys, the numbers your phone was broadcasting are just random gibberish to anyone other than you. If you have Bluetooth enabled in the first place, you're already broadcasting a MAC address. Many devices now rotate that specifically to prevent tracking, making it equivalent. In fact the only real differences from your device's MAC are the bit width (tracing numbers are significantly larger) and the fact that tracing numbers are cryptographically derived from an underlying secret. As far as conditioning massive swaths of the population to be electronically tracked, I'm afraid that ship sailed quite some time ago. Cellphones inherently reveal your (coarse) location in order to operate, modern vehicles carry extensive electronics packages that phone home to the manufacturer, and a seeming majority of people voluntarily upload significant portions of their geotagged lives to various service providers. I'm about as privacy conscious as you'll find these days, but my only concerns regarding the contract tracing API relate to battery life and the security implications of leaving Bluetooth on all the time (it seems like there's always another zero day being announced).

WalterBright 7y ago

There is precedent - losing a war. Economies do recover. Germany recovered from being bombed/burned/bankrupted flat in WW2 to become the economic powerhouse of Europe. Other countries did not recover so well, mainly because they chose more socialist economic polices. No, it wasn't because of the Marshall Plan. Most of the MP money went to other countries, not Germany.

zinckiwi 7y ago
Unfortunately it took a couple of generations! At a macro level, everything will be fine eventually, you're right. But short term pain regardless.
- WalterBright 7y ago
  It took from 1948 or so to the 1960s, less than one generation. Germany also had the problem of wholesale death of its men of working age. The currency was repudiated. The government at all levels had ceased to function.
  - usrusr 7y ago
    But there was also a lot of capital brought in from outside (which isn't quite the same as a money printing spree that happens everywhere at once) and what was left of pre-war financial elite was more concerned with keeping a low profile and pretending that they were on vacation or something like that for that last ten years than with leveraging their power into an even firmer grip. It's a very different situation and those differences could be very meaningful for the outcome.
    - WalterBright 7y ago
      I don't see any reference to that in things about the German Economic Miracle.
      - ciceryadam 7y ago

usrusr 7y ago

I think it will be worst for small businesses that have a strong component of physical "means of production" ownership: the means won't go away but they'll be owned by whoever happens to have access to cash at the massively parallel firesale. Business that have been based on rented property anyways are much easier to restart and landlords of otherwise healthy businesses might lose less long term if they allow skipped rent in the crisis instead of enforcing it now and then go through a lot of idle months from fluctuation due țo a series of failing new tenants. In the first days of the Italian lockdown I picked up some mentions on international news that they were intending to pause mortgages and rents for the time of the lockdown, shifting some of the economic burden on banks (who'd be far more practical to bail out) and the rentier class. Anyone able to chime in with more details about that? Was it just an announcement that was quickly subdued by well connected landlords? This approach sounds incredibly helpful and practical to me, but I could easily imagine attempts to put it in concrete legal terms to fail miserably.

_curious_ 7y ago

"The forced economic shutdown has decimated the entrepreneurial class in the US..." Not all entrepreneurs are "decimated"...many are in a position to prosper :)

jandrewrogers 7y ago
Technically, "decimated" denotes the destruction of a minority subset, which is how I was using it. :) My business is as good as it has ever been, and I do not work in any of the obvious verticals that would benefit from COVID-19, but all evidence suggests my case is an outlier.
- _curious_ 7y ago
  That's nuanced yet fair; TIL

kolanos 7y ago

"decimated" means to reduce by 1/10th. I doubt that's what you meant here.