2 ms·

Not every death is the same - a 80 year old with weak immune system could have lived 5 years longer without corona, but a healthy 20 year-old dying from cytokin

Not every death is the same - a 80 year old with weak immune system could have lived 5 years longer without corona, but a healthy 20 year-old dying from cytokine storm caused by influenza has lost potentially 60 years of healthy life - the loss is much worse. In a triage situation, where you have to decide between different people dying, such choices are unavoidable or necessary. But I want highlight that you are talking about this stuff to say that it's OK to plan for the death of "a 80 year old with weak immune system could have lived 5 years longer" versus no death at all. And that's not OK.

rubber_duck 7y ago
But those discussions happen all the time. If there is a drug that can extend the life of this person for 5 years but it costs X - should it be covered by society ? At what X does it become unacceptable ? The highest numbers I've seen argued are in the 200k/year but realistically it's much lower depending on the country.
- joe_the_user 7y ago
  Well, there are two kinds of choices that are generally considered radically different. One choice is providing some opportunity for further life beyond what's expected. That's generally considered something society likes but isn't obligated to provide. Society doesn't obligate it's member to spend money developing some miracle-extend that gives someone five more years. The other choice is taking life that would normally be expected. That is something that society very much frowns on. If you could protect someone and you don't do it 'cause it would cost you money, you may wind-up in jail for murder. Very quantitatively oriented people seem to have a hard time grasping why there's a difference here. But I think it's very rational in an evolutionary game-theoretic compact kind of way. Everyone is a member of society and values everyone else's life highly, more highly than immediate material things though maybe not more highly than other people's lives. This gives member of society basic security - you are thinking my insulin might worth just stealing and selling on the open market, me murdering you first might be my best strategy. You can see where things break down? The "social contract" is kind of the way around this.
  - rubber_duck 7y ago
    You can self isolate without quarantine measures in effect so your point isn't that strong to me and you are ignoring that one of the biggest destabilising forces in history is economic downturn. US-China relations have been bad for a while now and both sides are throwing blame at each other as a populist policy (China has a US origin story allegedly). If this pushes the economy in to a global depression who knows what will happen s few years down the road. Taiwan, Korea, plenty of places that could erupt if things become politically unstable - both in the US and China.
    - greedo 7y ago
      Self-isolating vulnerable populations is almost impossible. You're talking over 100M in the US. And not doing anything (pretend it's just the flu) will result in 50M dead world wide. Everyone worried about a new depression should realize one is going to happen no matter what we do now. The only thing we can do is act in a humane fashion.
      - jfnixon 7y ago
        Your number is highly suspect. About 16% of the US is 65+, or roughly 50M. Where do you get your 50M worldwide figure? When a new flu appears, Neil Ferguson claims his 3K lies of undocumented C code forecast 200M will die. These numbers are all speculation and worse predictors than throwing darts at a board behind your back.
        greedo 7y ago
        One third of the US population is considered at risk due to comorbidities. With over 328M people in the US, that's roughly 100M. If you look worldwide, there are 7.8B people. If herd immunity takes 60% of the population becoming infected, that's 4.6B infections. With an IFR of 1%, that's 46.8M deaths. 460M hospitalizations (where possible). Even say the IFR is overstated as some like. Say it's a magnitude less, comparable to the flu at .1% Now you are down to 4.7M deaths, but still the 460M hospitalizations. Still one of the most serious crises in the last 100 years.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

rubber_duck 7y ago

But those discussions happen all the time. If there is a drug that can extend the life of this person for 5 years but it costs X - should it be covered by society ? At what X does it become unacceptable ? The highest numbers I've seen argued are in the 200k/year but realistically it's much lower depending on the country.

joe_the_user 7y ago
Well, there are two kinds of choices that are generally considered radically different. One choice is providing some opportunity for further life beyond what's expected. That's generally considered something society likes but isn't obligated to provide. Society doesn't obligate it's member to spend money developing some miracle-extend that gives someone five more years. The other choice is taking life that would normally be expected. That is something that society very much frowns on. If you could protect someone and you don't do it 'cause it would cost you money, you may wind-up in jail for murder. Very quantitatively oriented people seem to have a hard time grasping why there's a difference here. But I think it's very rational in an evolutionary game-theoretic compact kind of way. Everyone is a member of society and values everyone else's life highly, more highly than immediate material things though maybe not more highly than other people's lives. This gives member of society basic security - you are thinking my insulin might worth just stealing and selling on the open market, me murdering you first might be my best strategy. You can see where things break down? The "social contract" is kind of the way around this.
- rubber_duck 7y ago
  You can self isolate without quarantine measures in effect so your point isn't that strong to me and you are ignoring that one of the biggest destabilising forces in history is economic downturn. US-China relations have been bad for a while now and both sides are throwing blame at each other as a populist policy (China has a US origin story allegedly). If this pushes the economy in to a global depression who knows what will happen s few years down the road. Taiwan, Korea, plenty of places that could erupt if things become politically unstable - both in the US and China.
  - greedo 7y ago
    Self-isolating vulnerable populations is almost impossible. You're talking over 100M in the US. And not doing anything (pretend it's just the flu) will result in 50M dead world wide. Everyone worried about a new depression should realize one is going to happen no matter what we do now. The only thing we can do is act in a humane fashion.
    - jfnixon 7y ago
      Your number is highly suspect. About 16% of the US is 65+, or roughly 50M. Where do you get your 50M worldwide figure? When a new flu appears, Neil Ferguson claims his 3K lies of undocumented C code forecast 200M will die. These numbers are all speculation and worse predictors than throwing darts at a board behind your back.
      - greedo 7y ago
        One third of the US population is considered at risk due to comorbidities. With over 328M people in the US, that's roughly 100M. If you look worldwide, there are 7.8B people. If herd immunity takes 60% of the population becoming infected, that's 4.6B infections. With an IFR of 1%, that's 46.8M deaths. 460M hospitalizations (where possible). Even say the IFR is overstated as some like. Say it's a magnitude less, comparable to the flu at .1% Now you are down to 4.7M deaths, but still the 460M hospitalizations. Still one of the most serious crises in the last 100 years.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]