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>is that mortality rate even among young people would become much higher as soon as hospitals become overwhelmed. I don't see how this follows. The point the p

>is that mortality rate even among young people would become much higher as soon as hospitals become overwhelmed. I don't see how this follows. The point the parent was making is that young people don't seem to need hospital care. Why would they suddenly start dying just because 'hospitals are overwhelmed'? They still won't need them...

leesec 7y ago
Original comment is talking about deaths, there are many, many more hospitalizations.
kadoban 7y ago
The ggp made no mention at all of hospitalization rates, only fatality rates.
williamdclt 7y ago
Not true, the point of the parent is that young people don't seem to die. For 0.1% dying, how many are going to the hospital? Let's say it's 10% (completely random number), if you increase the population then 10% completely overcrowds the hospitals, quality of care plummets and 0.1% becomes 5% (once again, completely random number). Not taking any position nor bringing data in this debate, just pointing out the logic
DanBC 7y ago
> The point the parent was making is that young people don't seem to need hospital care. Low risk doesn't mean no risk, and we see plenty of younger people in hospital, and in intensive care, because of covid-19. ICNARC has a report that they update over time using data from UK intensive care units. https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c5a62b13-6486-ea11-9125-00505601089b https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c5a... Age at admission (years), number of people discharged alive (%), number of people died (%) 16-39 240 (78.4) 66 (21.6) 40-49 350 (73.2) 128 (26.8) 50-59 568 (57.0) 429 (43.0) 60-69 503 (41.8) 701 (58.2) 70-79 293 (32.2) 617 (67.8) 80+ 57 (31.3) 125 (68.7) Once admitted to ICU people aged 16-39 have a 21.6% chance of dying vs a 78.4% chance of being discharged alive.
- techslave 7y ago
  bad use of statistics. if gp is to be believed, once in ICU you are already in the 0.x %. the question then is, are you in the 0.1 or 99.9.
DanBC 7y ago
> Why would they suddenly start dying just because 'hospitals are overwhelmed'? They still won't need them... Also, when hospitals are overwhelmed they stop all treatment. That young person who gets shot; has a road traffic accident; has a drug or alcohol overdose; has a problematic pregnancy and birth; has cancer -- all of these treatments become harder to provide.

leesec 7y ago

Original comment is talking about deaths, there are many, many more hospitalizations.

kadoban 7y ago

The ggp made no mention at all of hospitalization rates, only fatality rates.

williamdclt 7y ago

Not true, the point of the parent is that young people don't seem to die. For 0.1% dying, how many are going to the hospital? Let's say it's 10% (completely random number), if you increase the population then 10% completely overcrowds the hospitals, quality of care plummets and 0.1% becomes 5% (once again, completely random number). Not taking any position nor bringing data in this debate, just pointing out the logic

DanBC 7y ago

> The point the parent was making is that young people don't seem to need hospital care. Low risk doesn't mean no risk, and we see plenty of younger people in hospital, and in intensive care, because of covid-19. ICNARC has a report that they update over time using data from UK intensive care units. https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c5a62b13-6486-ea11-9125-00505601089b https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c5a... Age at admission (years), number of people discharged alive (%), number of people died (%) 16-39 240 (78.4) 66 (21.6) 40-49 350 (73.2) 128 (26.8) 50-59 568 (57.0) 429 (43.0) 60-69 503 (41.8) 701 (58.2) 70-79 293 (32.2) 617 (67.8) 80+ 57 (31.3) 125 (68.7) Once admitted to ICU people aged 16-39 have a 21.6% chance of dying vs a 78.4% chance of being discharged alive.

techslave 7y ago
bad use of statistics. if gp is to be believed, once in ICU you are already in the 0.x %. the question then is, are you in the 0.1 or 99.9.

DanBC 7y ago

> Why would they suddenly start dying just because 'hospitals are overwhelmed'? They still won't need them... Also, when hospitals are overwhelmed they stop all treatment. That young person who gets shot; has a road traffic accident; has a drug or alcohol overdose; has a problematic pregnancy and birth; has cancer -- all of these treatments become harder to provide.