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> Seems like Sweden is on track to hit herd immunity long before everyone else There's zero evidence of that. At this time, officially less than .5% of the pop

> Seems like Sweden is on track to hit herd immunity long before everyone else There's zero evidence of that. At this time, officially less than .5% of the population has been infected, so you'd have to postulate something like 99% of cases being asymptomatic. > Their daily new case count has been mostly plateaued for weeks Case count depends a lot on amount of testing (In which Sweden lags behind even the US) and testing criteria. Their death count does not look great.

oxymoron 7y ago
There is very substantial evidence of that. A random sample was taken of 700 inhabitants in Stockholm, which came in at 2.5% positive at that time. Based on that, they model that around 600 000 people have been infected. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/s/skattning-av-peakdag-och-antal-infekterade-i-covid-19-utbrottet-i-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publ...
- microtherion 7y ago
  600000 people is 6% of the Swedish population. So Sweden would be maybe... 10% of the way to herd immunity? That does not really count as close in my book.
  - oxymoron 7y ago
    That estimate is exclusively for Stockholm which is ahead of the rest of Sweden. Stockholm has ~2 million inhabitants, so that’s 25%+. That said, the key aspect is of course whether the intensive care units can keep up with the needs. So far, that has been true for Stockholm, which ptobably means that the measures are adequate for Swedish circumstances. Notably, the number of cases for Stockholm is projected to have peaked around April 10th.
    - microtherion 7y ago
      I stand corrected regarding their prediction. I don't understand much Swedish, so I could not follow their model. But it appears to rely on an extrapolation of data from late March. Do they include any cross-validation of the model with current data? April 9, 10, 11: 200, 148, 240 new cases were reported in Stockholm April 21, 22, 23: 163, 289, 281 new cases were reported (and might still be subject to upward revision) As we both agree, reported cases is a fairly uncertain metric, but I don't see a peak on April 10. Do you? https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa?fbclid=IwAR0cwMTc67meGq7bDJ63eph18UZ4LqgsOTYJK-msWNHCfp8aEp5WWQJaqeM https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6...
      - oxymoron 7y ago
        The model is calibrated based on the study from late march, which randomly sampled 700 individuals in Stockholm. From that they can infer the number of infected people at that point in time. They use two separate variables to track unknown infections and known infections (hospitalizations), so from that study and hospital data they get a baseline. They can then verify how the model holds up for the group of hospitalized cases. There are charts towards the end of the paper which shows the real data plotted compared to the predictions, with confidence intervalls. The data is obviously very noisy, but it seems to track reasonably well, and is expected to taper of only slowly. The expected decline is not by any means drastic.
SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
Swedish officials do believe that something like 95% of their coronavirus cases aren't reflected in the official count. Most countries are undercounting by at least an order of magnitude, and as you say Sweden isn't doing a ton of testing, so this makes sense.
guerrilla 7y ago
> so you'd have to postulate something like 99% of cases being asymptomatic. No, that's not how it works. There are plenty of people who have had and do have symptoms but have not been counted. Seeking care and getting counted is a last resort here.

oxymoron 7y ago

There is very substantial evidence of that. A random sample was taken of 700 inhabitants in Stockholm, which came in at 2.5% positive at that time. Based on that, they model that around 600 000 people have been infected. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/s/skattning-av-peakdag-och-antal-infekterade-i-covid-19-utbrottet-i-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publ...

microtherion 7y ago
600000 people is 6% of the Swedish population. So Sweden would be maybe... 10% of the way to herd immunity? That does not really count as close in my book.
- oxymoron 7y ago
  That estimate is exclusively for Stockholm which is ahead of the rest of Sweden. Stockholm has ~2 million inhabitants, so that’s 25%+. That said, the key aspect is of course whether the intensive care units can keep up with the needs. So far, that has been true for Stockholm, which ptobably means that the measures are adequate for Swedish circumstances. Notably, the number of cases for Stockholm is projected to have peaked around April 10th.
  - microtherion 7y ago
    I stand corrected regarding their prediction. I don't understand much Swedish, so I could not follow their model. But it appears to rely on an extrapolation of data from late March. Do they include any cross-validation of the model with current data? April 9, 10, 11: 200, 148, 240 new cases were reported in Stockholm April 21, 22, 23: 163, 289, 281 new cases were reported (and might still be subject to upward revision) As we both agree, reported cases is a fairly uncertain metric, but I don't see a peak on April 10. Do you? https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa?fbclid=IwAR0cwMTc67meGq7bDJ63eph18UZ4LqgsOTYJK-msWNHCfp8aEp5WWQJaqeM https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6...
    - oxymoron 7y ago
      The model is calibrated based on the study from late march, which randomly sampled 700 individuals in Stockholm. From that they can infer the number of infected people at that point in time. They use two separate variables to track unknown infections and known infections (hospitalizations), so from that study and hospital data they get a baseline. They can then verify how the model holds up for the group of hospitalized cases. There are charts towards the end of the paper which shows the real data plotted compared to the predictions, with confidence intervalls. The data is obviously very noisy, but it seems to track reasonably well, and is expected to taper of only slowly. The expected decline is not by any means drastic.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago

Swedish officials do believe that something like 95% of their coronavirus cases aren't reflected in the official count. Most countries are undercounting by at least an order of magnitude, and as you say Sweden isn't doing a ton of testing, so this makes sense.

guerrilla 7y ago

> so you'd have to postulate something like 99% of cases being asymptomatic. No, that's not how it works. There are plenty of people who have had and do have symptoms but have not been counted. Seeking care and getting counted is a last resort here.