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> > you can at least try to account for the ways in which your sample is likely to be different from a truly random sample. > Right, as all legitimate researche
by zamfi 7y ago
> > you can at least try to account for the ways in which your sample is likely to be different from a truly random sample.
> Right, as all legitimate researchers in this area do.
Yeah, obviously we agree here. So: how do you effectively control for them in this case? That's my point. It's hard, and you haven't offered any mechanism for this particular case, just assurances that people who know what they're doing do in fact know what they're doing.
Are you one of those people? Please fill us in on what they're doing to address sample bias. They "try to control for it" -- how in this case? So far you've offered nothing specific, just that experts control for it, and you're implying that it's illegitimate to question whether there might be a systemic bias because all the cited studies seem to select populations more likely to be infected.
> OK, so how do you get them in their homes? If you solicit them on the internet, then there's sample bias because you're telling them they'll be tested. If you knocking door-to-door, it's the same thing: you have to tell them what you're going to do, so you're "selecting for people who want to be tested". You can't win.
Am I understanding correctly that you're saying that because you can't get a perfectly random sample you shouldn't try to minimize selection bias? You can't "win", but you can get closer than these studies did. There's a clear difference between a Facebook ad "Stanford seeks people for COVID-19 tests" and "Your number was chosen at random and we'd like to test you for COVID-19 in the interest of science."
One should absolutely try to minimize selection bias, in addition to controlling for its inevitability. In Germany, as you propose, they are selecting people at random from a central database of residents, which is not correlated with whether they have symptoms, feel comfortable shopping in public, etc. That is better than showing up at a grocery store, clearly, right?
As for people who agree to be selected, yes, there's nothing we can do about that in liberal societies. I'd like to know what this rate is. In Germany, I recall that it was low.
> this is all just a highbrow way of rejecting studies for lowbrow reasons
OK, this is the second time you've implied that I'm uninformed, or am acting in bad faith or with bad motives (or whatever "lowbrow reasons" means). None of these are true. I've ignored the personal nature of your vague dismissals up to now in the interest of conversation, but I'm done doing so.
- timr 7y ago"Am I understanding correctly that you're saying that because you can't get a perfectly random sample you shouldn't try to minimize selection bias?" No, you're not. I was explaining why your argument is a truism in disguise. "OK, this is the second time you've implied that I'm uninformed, or am acting in bad faith or with bad motives (or whatever "lowbrow reasons" means). None of these are true. I've ignored the personal nature of your vague dismissals up to now in the interest of conversation, but I'm done doing so." I don't know if you're doing it in bad faith or not, but you're definitely making a highbrow lowbrow dismissal. You've set up an argument that can never be refuted, for reasons I've explained.
- zamfi 7y ago> You've set up an argument that can never be refuted, for reasons I've explained. I'm arguing that the selection mechanisms they're choosing to use are bad compared to what they could and should be using, namely, random sampling as was used in Germany. Yes, those still have problems as you've mentioned, but they are much better overall. I'm sure there are reasons these studies didn't use those mechanisms -- some bad, like that it's hard to get a good random sample, and it's easy to run facebook ads or camp out at a grocery store, and probably some good, like that it's easier enough that it makes results available sooner. I'm also arguing that because of this bias, and because we are now seeing a few of these studies with similar biases despite different methodologies, and because, of the papers we could read (namely just Stanford's), the accounting for selection bias is weak, it's risky to make statements about trends indicated by these papers. You could refute my argument by explaining how these not-very-random selection mechanisms could be effectively accounted for post-selection. I've asked you to do this several times, and you have not done so. I am not making an argument that can never be refuted. I'm asking you to refute it, and I've given you one potential argument, and you have chosen not to do so, repeatedly. I'm sorry, but in this exchange, the person putting forth arguments that amount to vague dismissals that can't be refuted was, um, not me.