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I've heard it rumored that one of Peter Thiel's private beliefs is that tech bubbles are necessary to fund non-trivial innovation in new industries (when expect
by georgewsinger 7y ago
I've heard it rumored that one of Peter Thiel's private beliefs is that tech bubbles are necessary to fund non-trivial innovation in new industries (when expected value to investors is largely negative). This is a fascinating question either way.
- chrisco255 7y agoIf that's true then why does Peter constantly argue that we haven't seen much innovation in the last 50 years? We've certainly had plenty of bubbles.
- beambot 7y agoInsufficient irrationality?
- exolymph 7y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Strauss https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Strauss
- dlkf 7y agoI don't have a dog in this fight but it's worth noting OP said "necessary" and not "sufficient."
- twic 7y agoHe has a portfolio of beliefs. All of them are bold, and not all of them have to be true!
- lachlan-sneff 7y agoThis is absolutely true.
- api 7y agoI basically agree with him but I'd put it a bit differently: non-trivial innovation requires something able to burn money on it beyond the constraints of rational short to medium term profit motive. That could be a bubble that throws off so much surplus money that some of it gets spent on things that end up "failing" but generating a return in the long term. It could also be large government R&D expenditures, and that's indeed what it was through the most innovative period of the 20th century. Lastly it could be a massive cash cow monopoly like Ma Bell and its Bell Labs, but that usually overlaps a bit with government since usually those kinds of monopolies exist because of some form of government action in the marketplace.