4 ms·

What about the idea that we should build up herd immunity in the summer so we’re not dealing with corona and flu in the fall? I guess we’d want healthy people

What about the idea that we should build up herd immunity in the summer so we’re not dealing with corona and flu in the fall? I guess we’d want healthy people to be out together if so. I heard that somewhere. Not sure if it makes sense.

vkou 7y ago
> What about the idea that we should build up herd immunity in the summer so we’re not dealing with corona and flu in the fall? Nobody currently knows whether or not getting COVID-19 makes you immune to getting it again.
- mrfusion 7y ago
  Do you have a source? I can’t think of any other virus that works like that (except hiv which attacks the immune system)
  - barry-cotter 7y ago
    https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698?s=21 https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698?s=21 > If you’re hoping a vaccine is going to be a knight in shining armor saving the day, you may be in for a disappointment. SARSCOV2 is a highly contagious virus. A vaccine will need to induce durable high level immunity, but coronaviruses often don’t induce that kind of immunity 1/ > There’s a nice preprint just out on antibody responses to SARSCOV2. Lots of people don’t develop much of an IgM response and the IgG response fades noticeably after just two months https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066407v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066407v... 2/ This is consistent with the other human coronaviruses. They induce an immune response, but it tends to fade so the same virus can reinfect us a year or two later. https://t.co/MFQyjhZF0T?amp=1 https://t.co/MFQyjhZF0T?amp=1 3/ The experience with veterinary vaccines for coronaviruses is also not great. There are economically important coronaviruses infecting farm animals and we’ve been trying to develop good vaccines for decades. Most on these vaccines are putzy https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7138383/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7138383/ 4/ The thread’s longer but the prognosis is not good.
    - bunje 7y ago
      I've been receiving the influenza vaccination every year. It wouldn't be a huge problem to receive also SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on top of that. Also at some point my kid received Rota-virus vaccinations every 3-6 months. It would be a hassle to inject everyone but doable in a country with modern medical system.
    - timr 7y ago
      I don't know what you're trying to accomplish with this kind of speculation in the context of the thread (namely: infected people might not develop immunity, therefore herd immunity might not be possible). Is it possible that we won't develop an effective vaccine? Yes, of course. We've never successfully made a coronavirus vaccine. But 1) that doesn't tell you much about the natural state of immunity for a virus (i.e. there are/were lots of viruses that infer immunity for which we had difficulty creating a vaccine), and 2) let's say you're right, and it isn't possible to gain immunity at all...what are we supposed to do then? Lock ourselves inside forever? Obviously, we're eventually going to end this, one way or another. Either we achieve herd immunity, or we just learn to live with another endemic virus that is occasionally fatal to a small percentage of the infected. I feel like there are a lot of "contrarian" types here who just want to make a fetish of the societal doom aspect of this thing.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - tzs 7y ago
    The coronaviruses that cause about 20% of common colds work that way.
    - mrfusion 7y ago
      do you have a source on that?
      - tzs 7y ago
        https://medicalxpress.com/news/2012-03-dont-immune-colds.html https://medicalxpress.com/news/2012-03-dont-immune-colds.htm... https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532754-600-can-you-catch-the-coronavirus-twice-we-dont-know-yet/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532754-600-can-you-...
        mrfusion 7y ago
        Thanks for providing those. Interesting reading however: The first article is talking about rhinovirus not corona. The second article just says we don’t know, but it does mention monkeys developing a strong immunity.
pjc50 7y ago
From a previous thread, I estimated that if NY had 20% antibody presence for 15k dead, that implies there will be 60k dead by the end of the process. Roughly one 9/11 every week or so?
FalconSensei 7y ago
Sorry that I don't have the sources here, but I remember reading a few times that many people will have a low amount of antibodies. Then, on this video, the doctor mentions that we don't know yet how much antibodies you need to be completely/somewhat immune, which makes sense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtP-QPv39kg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtP-QPv39kg Also, even if you are immune, we also don't know yet how long that immunity lasts.

vkou 7y ago

> What about the idea that we should build up herd immunity in the summer so we’re not dealing with corona and flu in the fall? Nobody currently knows whether or not getting COVID-19 makes you immune to getting it again.

mrfusion 7y ago
Do you have a source? I can’t think of any other virus that works like that (except hiv which attacks the immune system)
- barry-cotter 7y ago
  https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698?s=21 https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698?s=21 > If you’re hoping a vaccine is going to be a knight in shining armor saving the day, you may be in for a disappointment. SARSCOV2 is a highly contagious virus. A vaccine will need to induce durable high level immunity, but coronaviruses often don’t induce that kind of immunity 1/ > There’s a nice preprint just out on antibody responses to SARSCOV2. Lots of people don’t develop much of an IgM response and the IgG response fades noticeably after just two months https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066407v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066407v... 2/ This is consistent with the other human coronaviruses. They induce an immune response, but it tends to fade so the same virus can reinfect us a year or two later. https://t.co/MFQyjhZF0T?amp=1 https://t.co/MFQyjhZF0T?amp=1 3/ The experience with veterinary vaccines for coronaviruses is also not great. There are economically important coronaviruses infecting farm animals and we’ve been trying to develop good vaccines for decades. Most on these vaccines are putzy https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7138383/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7138383/ 4/ The thread’s longer but the prognosis is not good.
  - bunje 7y ago
    I've been receiving the influenza vaccination every year. It wouldn't be a huge problem to receive also SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on top of that. Also at some point my kid received Rota-virus vaccinations every 3-6 months. It would be a hassle to inject everyone but doable in a country with modern medical system.
  - timr 7y ago
    I don't know what you're trying to accomplish with this kind of speculation in the context of the thread (namely: infected people might not develop immunity, therefore herd immunity might not be possible). Is it possible that we won't develop an effective vaccine? Yes, of course. We've never successfully made a coronavirus vaccine. But 1) that doesn't tell you much about the natural state of immunity for a virus (i.e. there are/were lots of viruses that infer immunity for which we had difficulty creating a vaccine), and 2) let's say you're right, and it isn't possible to gain immunity at all...what are we supposed to do then? Lock ourselves inside forever? Obviously, we're eventually going to end this, one way or another. Either we achieve herd immunity, or we just learn to live with another endemic virus that is occasionally fatal to a small percentage of the infected. I feel like there are a lot of "contrarian" types here who just want to make a fetish of the societal doom aspect of this thing.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- tzs 7y ago
  The coronaviruses that cause about 20% of common colds work that way.
  - mrfusion 7y ago
    do you have a source on that?
    - tzs 7y ago
      https://medicalxpress.com/news/2012-03-dont-immune-colds.html https://medicalxpress.com/news/2012-03-dont-immune-colds.htm... https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532754-600-can-you-catch-the-coronavirus-twice-we-dont-know-yet/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532754-600-can-you-...
      - mrfusion 7y ago
        Thanks for providing those. Interesting reading however: The first article is talking about rhinovirus not corona. The second article just says we don’t know, but it does mention monkeys developing a strong immunity.

pjc50 7y ago

From a previous thread, I estimated that if NY had 20% antibody presence for 15k dead, that implies there will be 60k dead by the end of the process. Roughly one 9/11 every week or so?

FalconSensei 7y ago

Sorry that I don't have the sources here, but I remember reading a few times that many people will have a low amount of antibodies. Then, on this video, the doctor mentions that we don't know yet how much antibodies you need to be completely/somewhat immune, which makes sense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtP-QPv39kg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtP-QPv39kg Also, even if you are immune, we also don't know yet how long that immunity lasts.