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My theory: Prime, and its 2-day shipping service, is a flat rate deal, priced according to 10.5 normal months and 1.5 batshit crazy delivery months. Since they

My theory: Prime, and its 2-day shipping service, is a flat rate deal, priced according to 10.5 normal months and 1.5 batshit crazy delivery months. Since they can't charge on a demand basis for shipping like FedEx can, they've run into an internal train wreck where they can't afford to deliver all the orders the've received. So their bottleneck is actually a bottleneck of budgeted "delivery slots" for these Spring months, which they've excused as being "due to essential items only, can't keep up with demand." I've noticed something that I found extremely curious: I've ordered several random things in the last month from Amazon, and all have been severely delayed. These are not surge items: drumsticks, a guitar wall hanger, and an APC ups. All were Prime items, and all have been severely delayed, waiting weeks now. I get it, they are 'focusing on essential items' and my guitars will be fine to wait a while longer. However... I have not noticed many Prime delivery vans out in the neighborhood. During the holidays, Prime vans are everywhere. Today, they are not. Last mile shipping is one of those businesses that gets gloriously efficient with scale. Bezos announced that 100,000 person hire a few weeks back, which I assumed would be rehiring their holiday surge subcontractors. But few vans on the streets today. Finally, what essential items does Amazon have in stock that is overtaking their delivery supply chain?

MattGaiser 7y ago
I have a friend at Amazon and they say absenteeism among employees is through the roof. They can neither hire nor keep the employees they do have.
- ethagknight 7y ago
  That would fall under the "they can't afford to deliver the orders they have" bucket if they can't find anyone that wants to do the proposed work. If true, Amazon is selling a service that isn't robust or flexible enough for such a season. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.
  - ignoramous 7y ago
    > Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Long term is probably a combination of autonomous robots, self-driving vehicles, and delivery drones. The current crisis might even accelerate its development and deployment.
    - zitterbewegung 7y ago
      Yea well those strategies keep on always able to be done "next year".
  - MattGaiser 7y ago
    > If true, Amazon is selling a service that isn't robust or flexible enough for such a season. Nobody in that area is robust enough for a once in a century pandemic.
    - champagneben 7y ago
      Does anyone know how Alibaba and the like have fared in China?
      - barry-cotter 7y ago
        I live in Shanghai. There were two or three weeks after Lunar New Year where deliveries were delayed or more expensive or both for everything and grocery delivery slots were scarce for a month. Things are back to normal with all deliveries now.
        frandroid 7y ago
        But since this was the Lunar New Year, I'm guessing that Ali Baba was already on a war footing?
    - ethagknight 7y ago
      Companies that have the ability to price according to the strain on their system, like FedEx and UPS, are presumably far more robust in this scenario. Here's the rub: Amazon Prime is a contract for services at a certain annual price between the customer and Amazon. Amazon cannot easily just ask for more if their end of the deal ends up more costly to deliver than forecasted.
      - barry-cotter 7y ago
        > Amazon cannot easily just ask for more if their end of the deal ends up more costly to deliver than forecasted. Under the circumstances there’s probably no legal obstacle to them doing so. A pandemic looks, walks and quacks like force majeure.
  - ashtonkem 7y ago
    It’s entirely possible that they’ve literally bottomed out on the labor pool in some areas, what with the increase of risk to drivers and increased robustness in the social safety net. It’s kind of hard to plan around the “what if we can’t get more workers” scenario.
- stevenmays 7y ago
  Unemployment compensation is high, so the incentive to show up to work has decreased. They can solve this problem by paying more, although wage increases are hard to turn back time on. Maybe they should consider "hazard pay" during the pandemic.
  - hansthehorse 7y ago
    In Florida unemployment is a max of 235 dollars for a max of 12 weeks. Nobody is going on unemployment for a raise here.
    - stevenmays 7y ago
      +600 from the feds per week. In most states, it is higher.
    - emmp 7y ago
      In normal times, true. However unemployment insurance has been significantly boosted by the CARES act during the pandemic
      - WaltPurvis 7y ago
        Even with the CARES act, Amazon employees can't just quit their jobs and choose to collect unemployment instead. People who quit their jobs aren't eligible for unemployment. There are a few exceptions under the CARES act if you can't work because of something directly related to COVID, e.g., if you're a parent who has to take care of children because schools are closed. Being afraid you might catch the coronavirus at work is not a valid reason and would not make you eligible for unemployment payments.
        shuckles 7y ago
        Parents with kids in school sounds like a large chunk of the workforce, no?
        7y ago
- rorykoehler 7y ago
  Seems they aren't treating them well enough or paying them enough.
ethagknight 7y ago
One more little note: I can't think of any other stores that have had to make a similar claim of 'focusing on the essentials.' At the other end of the spectrum, my local Costco has been fantastically stocked at all times except for the few super-demand items like toilet paper and soap.
- bdcravens 7y ago
  Chewy has been delaying delivery (they usually are two day deliveries). I've noticed some items take longer than others, and it seems to be on a priority basis (a poop rake set took longer than prescription medication, for example; like 2 weeks vs 2 days)
- luckylion 7y ago
  And Amazon hasn't just said "yeah, your stuff might get delayed", they've actively asked large affiliates to cut referral traffic by 50-70%.
- gowld 7y ago
  You are conflating bulk warehousing with delivery. Also, Costco isn't in the same league of complexity as Amazon catalog logistics
bdcravens 7y ago
Amazon is still delivering "non-essential" items, or else, what they consider "essential" is extremely broad. I use Amazon a lot - I've had energy drinks, candy, a radio wiring harness, fitness (Pilates) equipment, paper plates, pre-printed eBay thank you cards, a flood light, and more all delivered in the last few weeks, most of which arrived inside of the Prime window.
philjohn 7y ago
I've noticed the opposite in the UK - saying they'll take up to a week to deliver, and then the item turning up the next day, or the day after.
- jefft255 7y ago
  I can second that for Canada; I've ordered at least 4-5 non-essential items in the last month and only one took more than 3-4 days to arrive.
  - 2almalki 7y ago
    tldr.. get a PRIME account I'm in Canada.. you're right BUT you need a prime account. I ordered some stuff and it was due to come in a month (non prime account).. and after 1.5 weeks it didn't ship. I canceled it and used a family members Prime account (still the delivery date was ~1 month away).. I got the stuff within 3 days.
    - lstamour 7y ago
      Have a Canadian prime account. Some items ship next day, others take over a month. I suspect locally-stocked deliveries are fine, it’s listings at further remote warehouses that are taking longer, maybe? Normally everything arrives within a day like clockwork at my location, especially during the holidays. Also, despite delays, Amazon still delivers. Staples just cancelled my orders.
    - Waterluvian 7y ago
      My Canadian prime account seems to be having no effect. Home cooking appliances not showing up. Tomorrow I'm cancelling them and cancelling prime renewal. We started using Walmart and curbside delivery and its great. I feel like covid will stress test existing "curbside pickup" systems and force them to become robust. Where before employees weren't well trained or didn't care, now they're well practiced. Walmart, Homeless Despot, Zehrs, and Canadian Tire curbside have all been well oiled machines this month.
- ethagknight 7y ago
eatbitseveryday 7y ago
Around where I live (suburbs in Oregon/USA), the Amazon delivery vans have been making passes multiple times a day for the past few weeks.
- mindcrime 7y ago
  Same here (Chapel Hill, NC) - I routinely get multiple Prime deliveries per day. And I see Prime vans running around everywhere.
zitterbewegung 7y ago
If you see no value in your Prime Membership why not cancel? I canceled mine over the fact that I have to screen what I buy because it could be counterfeit.
- lukemichals 7y ago
  same
toss1 7y ago
I've noticed the reverse - non-essential items are still delayed by weeks, but quasi-essentials (e.g., food, food storage items) are often faster than expected, and there are noticeably more Amazon trucks around than even at the holidays. Getting a delivery from Amazon/Whole Foods has gone from difficult (get up at 2AM and have a 50% chance of finding a slot, and maybe a 2% chance during the day) in March to completely impossible since beginning of April - even the exceedingly rare event of "finding" a slot fails when trying to click through [Pay] and [Schedule] screens.
Kluny 7y ago
Just to check, are you looking for the Amazon logo on the delivery vans? Because I've seen tons of deliveries for various services arrive in plain white Sprinters. You don't know whose van it is unless you can see the logo on the package. Some of them even seem to be subcontractors who work for multiple services, ie, Amazon and DHL packages arriving in the same truck.
- OzzyB 7y ago
  Can confirm, I got a Prime delivery from a guy driving a white Budget Rent-a-car van two weeks ago. Have to say I was very thankful.
SkyPuncher 7y ago
I 100% agree with this. In a matter of 4 days, Amazon went from next day shipping to 1+ month "estimated" delivery timeframes. This was the final straw for me to finally commit to finding items from non-Amazon sources. So far everything I've ordered has come in a reasonable timeframe. Possibly, taking one day longer, but not 15x longer. I ordered an air conditioner that showed up 2 days later with free shipping. Yet, Amazon failed to ship a PS4 controller for 3+ weeks (ended up cancelling and doing Best Buy pick-up 10 minutes after I ordered). ----- Oh yea. I almost forgot about the thermometer that my wife order on March 28th. Today is April 23rd and we still have not received it. Estimated delivery is May 7th. Maybe Amazon doesn't consider that an "essential" item, but I certainly wouldn't place it on the list of "useless" items.
- nerdbaggy 7y ago
  I was in the same situation with a thermometer. I even had to buy one on eBay, and it was junk. I’m not endorsing this but I ended up getting one of these since it would be delivered in a few days https://ihealthlabs.com/product/PT3 https://ihealthlabs.com/product/PT3
  - SkyPuncher 7y ago
    My mom ended up shipping us her spare one. Thankfully.
- ashtonkem 7y ago
  As an interesting anecdote, the non-prime thermometer I ordered yesterday already shipped. But of course, I actually paid shipping for it, which probably put me near the front of the queue. My prime orders got badly delayed though.
  - donogh 7y ago
    Was it from a third-party seller? If they're not using FBA, they shipped it from their own warehouse.
cblum 7y ago
Funny, at least in my neighborhood in Seattle, I've been seeing those vans all over the place.
reaperducer 7y ago
My anecdote is the opposite. The desk in my home office overlooks the street, so I've gotten used to counting the delivery trucks during the day. (FedEx truck? Time for more coffee!) We used to get one Prime van a day up my street. Now we get between five and eight a day. My wife has ordered some very frivolous things from Amazon lately, including a cat tree, a cat scratching post, and an actual tree. All arrived early. Sorry to hear that things are rough in your neighborhood. But I don't think that's enough data to point to some kind of conspiracy.
gowld 7y ago
Has Amazon refunded everyone's Prime membership fees yet? At least partially? Or offered cancellations for people who don't use Prime digital services? That's an obvious first step to stop needlessly angering people.
lukemichals 7y ago
I just did the math and cancelled prime. I realized that I didn't care to have items in within 2 days and I can still get free shipping if I batch my ordering a bit more.

MattGaiser 7y ago

I have a friend at Amazon and they say absenteeism among employees is through the roof. They can neither hire nor keep the employees they do have.

ethagknight 7y ago
That would fall under the "they can't afford to deliver the orders they have" bucket if they can't find anyone that wants to do the proposed work. If true, Amazon is selling a service that isn't robust or flexible enough for such a season. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.
- ignoramous 7y ago
  > Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Long term is probably a combination of autonomous robots, self-driving vehicles, and delivery drones. The current crisis might even accelerate its development and deployment.
  - zitterbewegung 7y ago
    Yea well those strategies keep on always able to be done "next year".
- MattGaiser 7y ago
  > If true, Amazon is selling a service that isn't robust or flexible enough for such a season. Nobody in that area is robust enough for a once in a century pandemic.
  - champagneben 7y ago
    Does anyone know how Alibaba and the like have fared in China?
    - barry-cotter 7y ago
      I live in Shanghai. There were two or three weeks after Lunar New Year where deliveries were delayed or more expensive or both for everything and grocery delivery slots were scarce for a month. Things are back to normal with all deliveries now.
      - frandroid 7y ago
        But since this was the Lunar New Year, I'm guessing that Ali Baba was already on a war footing?
  - ethagknight 7y ago
    Companies that have the ability to price according to the strain on their system, like FedEx and UPS, are presumably far more robust in this scenario. Here's the rub: Amazon Prime is a contract for services at a certain annual price between the customer and Amazon. Amazon cannot easily just ask for more if their end of the deal ends up more costly to deliver than forecasted.
    - barry-cotter 7y ago
      > Amazon cannot easily just ask for more if their end of the deal ends up more costly to deliver than forecasted. Under the circumstances there’s probably no legal obstacle to them doing so. A pandemic looks, walks and quacks like force majeure.
- ashtonkem 7y ago
  It’s entirely possible that they’ve literally bottomed out on the labor pool in some areas, what with the increase of risk to drivers and increased robustness in the social safety net. It’s kind of hard to plan around the “what if we can’t get more workers” scenario.
stevenmays 7y ago
Unemployment compensation is high, so the incentive to show up to work has decreased. They can solve this problem by paying more, although wage increases are hard to turn back time on. Maybe they should consider "hazard pay" during the pandemic.
- hansthehorse 7y ago
  In Florida unemployment is a max of 235 dollars for a max of 12 weeks. Nobody is going on unemployment for a raise here.
  - stevenmays 7y ago
    +600 from the feds per week. In most states, it is higher.
  - emmp 7y ago
    In normal times, true. However unemployment insurance has been significantly boosted by the CARES act during the pandemic
    - WaltPurvis 7y ago
      Even with the CARES act, Amazon employees can't just quit their jobs and choose to collect unemployment instead. People who quit their jobs aren't eligible for unemployment. There are a few exceptions under the CARES act if you can't work because of something directly related to COVID, e.g., if you're a parent who has to take care of children because schools are closed. Being afraid you might catch the coronavirus at work is not a valid reason and would not make you eligible for unemployment payments.
      - shuckles 7y ago
        Parents with kids in school sounds like a large chunk of the workforce, no?
        7y ago
rorykoehler 7y ago
Seems they aren't treating them well enough or paying them enough.

ethagknight 7y ago

One more little note: I can't think of any other stores that have had to make a similar claim of 'focusing on the essentials.' At the other end of the spectrum, my local Costco has been fantastically stocked at all times except for the few super-demand items like toilet paper and soap.

bdcravens 7y ago
Chewy has been delaying delivery (they usually are two day deliveries). I've noticed some items take longer than others, and it seems to be on a priority basis (a poop rake set took longer than prescription medication, for example; like 2 weeks vs 2 days)
luckylion 7y ago
And Amazon hasn't just said "yeah, your stuff might get delayed", they've actively asked large affiliates to cut referral traffic by 50-70%.
gowld 7y ago
You are conflating bulk warehousing with delivery. Also, Costco isn't in the same league of complexity as Amazon catalog logistics

bdcravens 7y ago

Amazon is still delivering "non-essential" items, or else, what they consider "essential" is extremely broad. I use Amazon a lot - I've had energy drinks, candy, a radio wiring harness, fitness (Pilates) equipment, paper plates, pre-printed eBay thank you cards, a flood light, and more all delivered in the last few weeks, most of which arrived inside of the Prime window.

philjohn 7y ago

I've noticed the opposite in the UK - saying they'll take up to a week to deliver, and then the item turning up the next day, or the day after.

jefft255 7y ago
I can second that for Canada; I've ordered at least 4-5 non-essential items in the last month and only one took more than 3-4 days to arrive.
- 2almalki 7y ago
  tldr.. get a PRIME account I'm in Canada.. you're right BUT you need a prime account. I ordered some stuff and it was due to come in a month (non prime account).. and after 1.5 weeks it didn't ship. I canceled it and used a family members Prime account (still the delivery date was ~1 month away).. I got the stuff within 3 days.
  - lstamour 7y ago
    Have a Canadian prime account. Some items ship next day, others take over a month. I suspect locally-stocked deliveries are fine, it’s listings at further remote warehouses that are taking longer, maybe? Normally everything arrives within a day like clockwork at my location, especially during the holidays. Also, despite delays, Amazon still delivers. Staples just cancelled my orders.
  - Waterluvian 7y ago
    My Canadian prime account seems to be having no effect. Home cooking appliances not showing up. Tomorrow I'm cancelling them and cancelling prime renewal. We started using Walmart and curbside delivery and its great. I feel like covid will stress test existing "curbside pickup" systems and force them to become robust. Where before employees weren't well trained or didn't care, now they're well practiced. Walmart, Homeless Despot, Zehrs, and Canadian Tire curbside have all been well oiled machines this month.
ethagknight 7y ago

eatbitseveryday 7y ago

Around where I live (suburbs in Oregon/USA), the Amazon delivery vans have been making passes multiple times a day for the past few weeks.

mindcrime 7y ago
Same here (Chapel Hill, NC) - I routinely get multiple Prime deliveries per day. And I see Prime vans running around everywhere.

zitterbewegung 7y ago

If you see no value in your Prime Membership why not cancel? I canceled mine over the fact that I have to screen what I buy because it could be counterfeit.

lukemichals 7y ago
same

toss1 7y ago

I've noticed the reverse - non-essential items are still delayed by weeks, but quasi-essentials (e.g., food, food storage items) are often faster than expected, and there are noticeably more Amazon trucks around than even at the holidays. Getting a delivery from Amazon/Whole Foods has gone from difficult (get up at 2AM and have a 50% chance of finding a slot, and maybe a 2% chance during the day) in March to completely impossible since beginning of April - even the exceedingly rare event of "finding" a slot fails when trying to click through [Pay] and [Schedule] screens.

Kluny 7y ago

Just to check, are you looking for the Amazon logo on the delivery vans? Because I've seen tons of deliveries for various services arrive in plain white Sprinters. You don't know whose van it is unless you can see the logo on the package. Some of them even seem to be subcontractors who work for multiple services, ie, Amazon and DHL packages arriving in the same truck.

OzzyB 7y ago
Can confirm, I got a Prime delivery from a guy driving a white Budget Rent-a-car van two weeks ago. Have to say I was very thankful.

SkyPuncher 7y ago

I 100% agree with this. In a matter of 4 days, Amazon went from next day shipping to 1+ month "estimated" delivery timeframes. This was the final straw for me to finally commit to finding items from non-Amazon sources. So far everything I've ordered has come in a reasonable timeframe. Possibly, taking one day longer, but not 15x longer. I ordered an air conditioner that showed up 2 days later with free shipping. Yet, Amazon failed to ship a PS4 controller for 3+ weeks (ended up cancelling and doing Best Buy pick-up 10 minutes after I ordered). ----- Oh yea. I almost forgot about the thermometer that my wife order on March 28th. Today is April 23rd and we still have not received it. Estimated delivery is May 7th. Maybe Amazon doesn't consider that an "essential" item, but I certainly wouldn't place it on the list of "useless" items.

nerdbaggy 7y ago
I was in the same situation with a thermometer. I even had to buy one on eBay, and it was junk. I’m not endorsing this but I ended up getting one of these since it would be delivered in a few days https://ihealthlabs.com/product/PT3 https://ihealthlabs.com/product/PT3
- SkyPuncher 7y ago
  My mom ended up shipping us her spare one. Thankfully.
ashtonkem 7y ago
As an interesting anecdote, the non-prime thermometer I ordered yesterday already shipped. But of course, I actually paid shipping for it, which probably put me near the front of the queue. My prime orders got badly delayed though.
- donogh 7y ago
  Was it from a third-party seller? If they're not using FBA, they shipped it from their own warehouse.

cblum 7y ago

Funny, at least in my neighborhood in Seattle, I've been seeing those vans all over the place.

reaperducer 7y ago

My anecdote is the opposite. The desk in my home office overlooks the street, so I've gotten used to counting the delivery trucks during the day. (FedEx truck? Time for more coffee!) We used to get one Prime van a day up my street. Now we get between five and eight a day. My wife has ordered some very frivolous things from Amazon lately, including a cat tree, a cat scratching post, and an actual tree. All arrived early. Sorry to hear that things are rough in your neighborhood. But I don't think that's enough data to point to some kind of conspiracy.

gowld 7y ago

Has Amazon refunded everyone's Prime membership fees yet? At least partially? Or offered cancellations for people who don't use Prime digital services? That's an obvious first step to stop needlessly angering people.

lukemichals 7y ago

I just did the math and cancelled prime. I realized that I didn't care to have items in within 2 days and I can still get free shipping if I batch my ordering a bit more.