3 ms·

Yes, the study is really good news for NYC. My thinking is that the state of emergency, currently in place until 5/15, will be extended at most once to 6/15. Af

Yes, the study is really good news for NYC. My thinking is that the state of emergency, currently in place until 5/15, will be extended at most once to 6/15. After that we'll be somewhat open for business. I imagine everyone will be advised to wear mask/gloves, to keep the social distance and to keep washing hands. Lots of people will continue to work from home, others will bike to work. Being summer, the virus will not be that contagious. When the November rebound is forecast to happen, the herd immunity will be much higher, hospitals better prepared, the medical world will have learned the most effective ways to treat this disease, so the fatality rate will go down to levels seen in Germany, or lower. Bottom line, I don't think we'll have another shelter-in-place in November-December.

robocat 7y ago
> Being summer, the virus will not be that contagious. I think that is still scientifically debatable, good overview: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239380-will-the-spread-of-covid-19-be-affected-by-changing-seasons/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239380-will-the-spread... Certainly it is still transmissible in hot countries.
- ethbro 7y ago
  It seems reasonable that lipid encapsulated viruses are fairly stable in a variety of temperature ranges, no? On the other hand, I can see the additional environmental UV saturation and vitamin D having a noticeable effect. Even a small decrease in environmental persistence should help, given its infectiousness.
- credit_guy 7y ago
  Thanks for the link. It's a good read. That said, science is enamored with significance levels, p-values, etc. Most people just do that because that's what they've learned, and think that's how it should be done. They don't think it comes from Bayesian inference, where you put a very low prior probability of a drug being useful (because the very vast majority of chemicals we could put in our bodies are either harmful, or have harmful side-effects). In this case, the Bayesian prior is that common colds in general become less prevalent during the Summer, and Covid19 is caused by a coronavirus, which is related to viruses causing the common cold. The burden of proof should be lowered many, many times, but I nobody who did these statistical surveys did that, because this is a total no-no in the field. So, I'll state my conclusion, after reading your link: the infectiousness of Covid19 is more likely than not to decrease in the Summer, based on the studies that were performed. It will not decrease to zero, so that does not contradict your statement that it is transmissible in hot countries.
  - matwood 7y ago
    > the Bayesian prior is that common colds in general become less prevalent during the Summer, and Covid19 is caused by a coronavirus, which is related to viruses causing the common cold MERS is also a coronavirus and does just fine in the warm climate of the middle east. I hope that warmer temps slow the spread, but it's far from certain.
    - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
      It's not just far from certain. It is simply unlikely. The "hypotheses" for explaining seasonal variations in transmissibility are nothing but a wild-guess/hope.
      - credit_guy 7y ago
        Kinshasa, the capital of DR Congo, is a city with 11 million people. About the same size as Wuhan or New York City. According to [1] there were only 25 deaths due to Covid19 in the whole country. Why so few? 21 million people live in Lagos, Nigeria, yet the whole of Nigeria has seen only 31 deaths. On the other hand, I have to admit, there were quite a bit more deaths in Sao Paolo, Brazil, but it's still an order of magnitude less than in the New York State. Maybe Africa and Brazil are faking the numbers, but Australia most likely not. Only 76 deaths so far. Argentina has recorded only 159 deaths. You could say this is only circumstantial evidence. My point is that we are not trying to prove things "beyond any reasonable doubt". We are trying to form the most informed opinion. And there are quite a few factors that point in the direction of reduced infectiousness during the Summer. Schools closed? Check. People away for vacations? Check. More UV light which kills airborne viruses? Check. People having more vitamin D in their bodies? Check. Air more humid, so the tissue inside your nose is better protected? Sure thing. Better immune systems due to less stress due to the ambient light? Sure thing. Etc, etc. You can question any of these things. But in a Bayesian framework they tilt the scales little by little. But that's just me. [1] https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:e...
        7y ago
laurencerowe 7y ago
It's really difficult to compare the currently reported fatality rates between different countries and regions since the amount of testing varies so greatly. Compared to many other countries, Germany has likely confirmed through testing a higher proportion of its total number of cases in the country, lowering the reported fatality rate. In countries where testing is less widely available only those already showing severe symptoms get tested disproportionately, so confirmed cases are more likely to be fatal even if they get good hospital care.
greedo 7y ago
CFR has been steadily rising in Germany. Perhaps you want to cherry pick another country?

robocat 7y ago

> Being summer, the virus will not be that contagious. I think that is still scientifically debatable, good overview: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239380-will-the-spread-of-covid-19-be-affected-by-changing-seasons/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239380-will-the-spread... Certainly it is still transmissible in hot countries.

ethbro 7y ago
It seems reasonable that lipid encapsulated viruses are fairly stable in a variety of temperature ranges, no? On the other hand, I can see the additional environmental UV saturation and vitamin D having a noticeable effect. Even a small decrease in environmental persistence should help, given its infectiousness.
credit_guy 7y ago
Thanks for the link. It's a good read. That said, science is enamored with significance levels, p-values, etc. Most people just do that because that's what they've learned, and think that's how it should be done. They don't think it comes from Bayesian inference, where you put a very low prior probability of a drug being useful (because the very vast majority of chemicals we could put in our bodies are either harmful, or have harmful side-effects). In this case, the Bayesian prior is that common colds in general become less prevalent during the Summer, and Covid19 is caused by a coronavirus, which is related to viruses causing the common cold. The burden of proof should be lowered many, many times, but I nobody who did these statistical surveys did that, because this is a total no-no in the field. So, I'll state my conclusion, after reading your link: the infectiousness of Covid19 is more likely than not to decrease in the Summer, based on the studies that were performed. It will not decrease to zero, so that does not contradict your statement that it is transmissible in hot countries.
- matwood 7y ago
  > the Bayesian prior is that common colds in general become less prevalent during the Summer, and Covid19 is caused by a coronavirus, which is related to viruses causing the common cold MERS is also a coronavirus and does just fine in the warm climate of the middle east. I hope that warmer temps slow the spread, but it's far from certain.
  - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
    It's not just far from certain. It is simply unlikely. The "hypotheses" for explaining seasonal variations in transmissibility are nothing but a wild-guess/hope.
    - credit_guy 7y ago
      Kinshasa, the capital of DR Congo, is a city with 11 million people. About the same size as Wuhan or New York City. According to [1] there were only 25 deaths due to Covid19 in the whole country. Why so few? 21 million people live in Lagos, Nigeria, yet the whole of Nigeria has seen only 31 deaths. On the other hand, I have to admit, there were quite a bit more deaths in Sao Paolo, Brazil, but it's still an order of magnitude less than in the New York State. Maybe Africa and Brazil are faking the numbers, but Australia most likely not. Only 76 deaths so far. Argentina has recorded only 159 deaths. You could say this is only circumstantial evidence. My point is that we are not trying to prove things "beyond any reasonable doubt". We are trying to form the most informed opinion. And there are quite a few factors that point in the direction of reduced infectiousness during the Summer. Schools closed? Check. People away for vacations? Check. More UV light which kills airborne viruses? Check. People having more vitamin D in their bodies? Check. Air more humid, so the tissue inside your nose is better protected? Sure thing. Better immune systems due to less stress due to the ambient light? Sure thing. Etc, etc. You can question any of these things. But in a Bayesian framework they tilt the scales little by little. But that's just me. [1] https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:e...
      - 7y ago

laurencerowe 7y ago

It's really difficult to compare the currently reported fatality rates between different countries and regions since the amount of testing varies so greatly. Compared to many other countries, Germany has likely confirmed through testing a higher proportion of its total number of cases in the country, lowering the reported fatality rate. In countries where testing is less widely available only those already showing severe symptoms get tested disproportionately, so confirmed cases are more likely to be fatal even if they get good hospital care.

greedo 7y ago

CFR has been steadily rising in Germany. Perhaps you want to cherry pick another country?