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At what point have we scientifically reached "herd immunity"? Is it 50%, 90%, 99%?
by 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 6y ago
At what point have we scientifically reached "herd immunity"? Is it 50%, 90%, 99%?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- caiobegotti 6y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoAlthough it should be noted that incomplete herd immunity will still help, by reducing the number of other containment measures which must be taken.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- grey-area 6y agoMore like 50-80%, you just need spread to be impeded so that r falls below 1, but for that many people to get it would mean very high deaths, in the US 1% of 80% of 320m is > 2m deaths.
- nullc 6y agoKeep in mind that if 21% of NYC residence have been infected this probably implies R0 in that population was higher than in most prior estimates of R0, which increases the threshold of immune people before R0 falls below 1.
- votepaunchy 6y agoIt also implies that the R0 of the already-infected population is higher than that of the not-yet-affected population.
- robocat 6y agoR0 varies hugely. The R0 for highly connected people meeting others regularly, will be far higher than the R0 for people who only leave the house once a week. The R0 in a crowded prison will be far higher than the R0 of rural farm owners.
- jaynetics 6y ago60-85% 1-1/R0 Most commonly the R0 of is assumed to be 2.5-3.0, but estimates range up to 6.5. https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/2/taaa021/5735319 https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/2/taaa021/5735319
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- pkaye 6y agoProbably in the 80-90% range depending on the reproduction number. It would be 1-1/R0 from my understanding.
- disillusioned 6y agoThe percentage scales with the R0 of the virus. The more infectious the disease, the higher the percentage of infected people for herd immunity to take shape and effectively push the Rt/R0 < 1.
- buboard 6y agoi think people misunderstand what herd immunity is. If NYC has 80% infection rate, then people within NYC can assume immunity. People outside NYC having 5% are still vulnerable
- standardUser 6y agoAn important thing to keep in mind is that even without herd immunity, the transmission rate gets lower every time a person obtain long-lasting immunity (assuming such a thing typically occurs with this virus). Keeping the transmission rate down around 1 becomes increasingly easier and requires less severe protocols.