5 ms·

I didn't say the Fed calculated it. I did say they reference it to say their policies (or whoever's policies) aren't causing inflation. When a majority of lead

I didn't say the Fed calculated it. I did say they reference it to say their policies (or whoever's policies) aren't causing inflation. When a majority of leading economists subscribe to economic views that don't reflect the lived reality of an average person, it may not be a conspiracy, but the effect (groupthink) is similar.

thomashobohm 7y ago
Sorry, but it's at this point in the thread that I realize that talking to tech bros on hacker news about monetary policy is actually the seventh circle of hell. Glhf. Your claim, to be clear, is that inflation is occurring, but the BLS is hiding it, so that the Fed can hit their targets easier? Why stop there-maybe the board of governors also brings Beyonce in during their closed meetings for private concerts, and pays for them with t-bills.
- Qasaur 7y ago
  >Sorry, but it's at this point in the thread that I realize that talking to tech bros on hacker news about monetary policy is actually the seventh circle of hell. Glhf. Appealing to the authority of mainstream economists in a perpetual state of groupthink is not an argument. It is this kind of hostile and borderline elitist attitude that scares away people from discussing monetary policy and makes it seem more complex than what it really is, and I don't think that is productive at all. Ironically it is the same kind of elitism that caused the collapse of the planned economies of the 20th century (which grade-school students learn about today), despite being comprised of supposed "experts" in economic affairs who should never be questioned.
  - thomashobohm 7y ago
    Please, this isn’t Soviet Russia, economists disagree about practically everything, so the whole argument that the profession has a serious groupthink problem is unconvincing to me. The reason why economists mostly agree on this particular topic-the way the Fed operates-is because it’s exceedingly transparent, theoretically (not to mention mathematically) simple, and empirically verifiable.
    - Qasaur 7y ago
      >Please, this isn’t Soviet Russia, economists disagree about practically everything, so the whole argument that the profession has a serious groupthink problem is unconvincing to me. They disagree on a lot of things, that is true, but the one thing they all seem to agree upon (except for Austrian economists) is that the economy can be effectively modelled and that effective policy prescriptions can be derived from said statistical models. It is a supremely complex system and it is the pretence of knowledge (in the words of Hayek) to believe that you can use monetary policy to command it, much less policies based upon empirical models which are as you say constantly bickered and debated about. Furthermore, the Fed is not exceedingly transparent - audits of its operations and its meeting minutes are classified and are not open to public review, as is the case with most central banks in the world. I know because I've tried to ask for copies of open market operation details from my central bank (the Swedish Riksbank) but was denied as they are classified by law (which is incredibly unusual for a society where other government agencies publish everything, including income tax returns).
      - thomashobohm 7y ago
        FOMC Meeting Minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20200315.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes202... Fed Audited Financial Statements: https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/audited-annual-financial-statements.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/audited-annual-fi... I’m sorry that your Swedish central bank is classified, since, based on your worldview, there are presumably a bunch of Swedish economists working there behind closed doors to screw you over.
        Qasaur 7y ago
        FOMC minutes are published, but not other meetings which are arguably more important, including the meetings of the Board. https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/meetingdates.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/mee... "Effective March 15, 2020, the meeting was closed to public observation by Order of the Board of Governors1 because the matters fall under exemption(s) 9(A)(i) of the Government in the Sunshine Act (5 U.S.C. Section 552b(c)), and it was determined that the public interest did not require opening the meeting." This seems to be the case for almost all of their meetings.
- OscarCunningham 7y ago
  From the article they linked to: > But over the same period, the Consumer Price Index for new vehicles – so this is one of the many subcategories of CPI – has risen only 22%. In fact, it rose 22% from 1990 to 1997, and today is flat with where it had been in 1997. So inflation only accounts for log(1.22)/log(1.77) = 37% of the price rise.

thomashobohm 7y ago

Sorry, but it's at this point in the thread that I realize that talking to tech bros on hacker news about monetary policy is actually the seventh circle of hell. Glhf. Your claim, to be clear, is that inflation is occurring, but the BLS is hiding it, so that the Fed can hit their targets easier? Why stop there-maybe the board of governors also brings Beyonce in during their closed meetings for private concerts, and pays for them with t-bills.

Qasaur 7y ago
>Sorry, but it's at this point in the thread that I realize that talking to tech bros on hacker news about monetary policy is actually the seventh circle of hell. Glhf. Appealing to the authority of mainstream economists in a perpetual state of groupthink is not an argument. It is this kind of hostile and borderline elitist attitude that scares away people from discussing monetary policy and makes it seem more complex than what it really is, and I don't think that is productive at all. Ironically it is the same kind of elitism that caused the collapse of the planned economies of the 20th century (which grade-school students learn about today), despite being comprised of supposed "experts" in economic affairs who should never be questioned.
- thomashobohm 7y ago
  Please, this isn’t Soviet Russia, economists disagree about practically everything, so the whole argument that the profession has a serious groupthink problem is unconvincing to me. The reason why economists mostly agree on this particular topic-the way the Fed operates-is because it’s exceedingly transparent, theoretically (not to mention mathematically) simple, and empirically verifiable.
  - Qasaur 7y ago
    >Please, this isn’t Soviet Russia, economists disagree about practically everything, so the whole argument that the profession has a serious groupthink problem is unconvincing to me. They disagree on a lot of things, that is true, but the one thing they all seem to agree upon (except for Austrian economists) is that the economy can be effectively modelled and that effective policy prescriptions can be derived from said statistical models. It is a supremely complex system and it is the pretence of knowledge (in the words of Hayek) to believe that you can use monetary policy to command it, much less policies based upon empirical models which are as you say constantly bickered and debated about. Furthermore, the Fed is not exceedingly transparent - audits of its operations and its meeting minutes are classified and are not open to public review, as is the case with most central banks in the world. I know because I've tried to ask for copies of open market operation details from my central bank (the Swedish Riksbank) but was denied as they are classified by law (which is incredibly unusual for a society where other government agencies publish everything, including income tax returns).
    - thomashobohm 7y ago
      FOMC Meeting Minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20200315.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes202... Fed Audited Financial Statements: https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/audited-annual-financial-statements.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/audited-annual-fi... I’m sorry that your Swedish central bank is classified, since, based on your worldview, there are presumably a bunch of Swedish economists working there behind closed doors to screw you over.
      - Qasaur 7y ago
        FOMC minutes are published, but not other meetings which are arguably more important, including the meetings of the Board. https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/meetingdates.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/mee... "Effective March 15, 2020, the meeting was closed to public observation by Order of the Board of Governors1 because the matters fall under exemption(s) 9(A)(i) of the Government in the Sunshine Act (5 U.S.C. Section 552b(c)), and it was determined that the public interest did not require opening the meeting." This seems to be the case for almost all of their meetings.
OscarCunningham 7y ago
From the article they linked to: > But over the same period, the Consumer Price Index for new vehicles – so this is one of the many subcategories of CPI – has risen only 22%. In fact, it rose 22% from 1990 to 1997, and today is flat with where it had been in 1997. So inflation only accounts for log(1.22)/log(1.77) = 37% of the price rise.