4 ms·

Why do you think the next wave will be in the winter?

• baq 7y ago
  not OP but: 1) there won't be a vaccine - even if there will be, you won't be able to vaccinate everybody 2) the virus spreads fast but due to lockdowns not fast enough for herd immunity to prevent spread 3) lockdowns will be relaxed when new cases stop being found 4) all of it assuming immunity lasts for a few years, which it should, but it isn't a certainty 5) 3) will lead directly to asymptomatic cases causing flare-ups a few weeks after lockdowns are relaxed (see Singapore, Japan) 6) if 4) isn't true, we're toast
  • etiam 7y ago
    we don’t yet know if this novel virus will induce long-term immunity in those affected as other related viruses do not. https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-s...
    • marcosdumay 7y ago
      Short term, on this case means 6 months to 2 years. The GP is talking about something 4 to 7 months away.
  • gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
    Right I agree but that will happen in a few weeks already when measures are relaxed. There is no reason we know of that the virus will wait until winter. The next wave will already have started in places where lockdowns are being lifted.