4 ms·

Right now around 2000 inmates are infected. If doubling time is 1 day in prison population then there were only 2 infected prisoners 10 days ago.

ajross 6y ago
Given the suspected incubation time of around 6 days, a doubling time of 2 days would correspond to an R0 of 8, which seems improbably high.
- clort 6y ago
  How many prisoners per cell though? This is not going to be anything like a normal transmission rate as these people do not have 'personal space'
- nradov 6y ago
  Why couldn't R0 be significantly higher than normal in a facility with extremely high density and poor hiegene?
- rdlecler1 6y ago
  There’s environmental dependencies. With something like the cold, Children can have an R0 that is 2x-8x higher (and some will have a lower R0), it’s really an average rate not an absolute.
- Gibbon1 6y ago
  More recent CDC study: "Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)." https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
- fileeditview 6y ago
  R0 is not intrinsic to the virus but is heavily dependent on other factors. E.g. if you put 1 infected person in a crowded bus for a day long trip, the R0 within that group would probably be close to number of passengers.
Gibbon1 6y ago
Well there is the church in Washington where 45 out of 60 that attended a choir practice got infected in 2 hours. Homeless Shelter in San Francisco went from 5 cases to 70 in a couple of days. Could be you had one person that infected 200 fellow prisoners over a couple of days. After that you only need a week to infect everyone. Strikes me we probably I was well need to be really careful drawing naive inferences from epidemiological numbers. That said suspect limiting group contact sizes is really important because of stuff like this. In order to keep random highly infectious people from infecting large numbers of people in one setting.

ajross 6y ago

Given the suspected incubation time of around 6 days, a doubling time of 2 days would correspond to an R0 of 8, which seems improbably high.

clort 6y ago
How many prisoners per cell though? This is not going to be anything like a normal transmission rate as these people do not have 'personal space'
nradov 6y ago
Why couldn't R0 be significantly higher than normal in a facility with extremely high density and poor hiegene?
rdlecler1 6y ago
There’s environmental dependencies. With something like the cold, Children can have an R0 that is 2x-8x higher (and some will have a lower R0), it’s really an average rate not an absolute.
Gibbon1 6y ago
More recent CDC study: "Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)." https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
fileeditview 6y ago
R0 is not intrinsic to the virus but is heavily dependent on other factors. E.g. if you put 1 infected person in a crowded bus for a day long trip, the R0 within that group would probably be close to number of passengers.

Gibbon1 6y ago

Well there is the church in Washington where 45 out of 60 that attended a choir practice got infected in 2 hours. Homeless Shelter in San Francisco went from 5 cases to 70 in a couple of days. Could be you had one person that infected 200 fellow prisoners over a couple of days. After that you only need a week to infect everyone. Strikes me we probably I was well need to be really careful drawing naive inferences from epidemiological numbers. That said suspect limiting group contact sizes is really important because of stuff like this. In order to keep random highly infectious people from infecting large numbers of people in one setting.