3 ms·

For your #1, why? Is your assertion that all the inmates contracted the virus on the same day? Isn't it more of an average?

lostapathy 7y ago
Death takes time to accumulate. If everyone caught it in the last couple days, we don’t spect deaths yet under anyone’s model.
- labster 7y ago
  Hate to break it to you but most people’s mental models do not work this way, and would predict strong coupling between infection rate and death rate with zero to two days lag. Even if we know better, the experience model builds our expectations.
abiogenesis 7y ago
Yes, but if the number of deaths is 0 it might also mean that the sickness hasn't sufficiently progressed in any of the inmates, yet.
dmitriy_ko 7y ago
Right now around 2000 inmates are infected. If doubling time is 1 day in prison population then there were only 2 infected prisoners 10 days ago.
- ajross 7y ago
  Given the suspected incubation time of around 6 days, a doubling time of 2 days would correspond to an R0 of 8, which seems improbably high.
  - clort 7y ago
    How many prisoners per cell though? This is not going to be anything like a normal transmission rate as these people do not have 'personal space'
  - nradov 7y ago
    Why couldn't R0 be significantly higher than normal in a facility with extremely high density and poor hiegene?
  - rdlecler1 7y ago
    There’s environmental dependencies. With something like the cold, Children can have an R0 that is 2x-8x higher (and some will have a lower R0), it’s really an average rate not an absolute.
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    More recent CDC study: "Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)." https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
  - fileeditview 7y ago
    R0 is not intrinsic to the virus but is heavily dependent on other factors. E.g. if you put 1 infected person in a crowded bus for a day long trip, the R0 within that group would probably be close to number of passengers.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  Well there is the church in Washington where 45 out of 60 that attended a choir practice got infected in 2 hours. Homeless Shelter in San Francisco went from 5 cases to 70 in a couple of days. Could be you had one person that infected 200 fellow prisoners over a couple of days. After that you only need a week to infect everyone. Strikes me we probably I was well need to be really careful drawing naive inferences from epidemiological numbers. That said suspect limiting group contact sizes is really important because of stuff like this. In order to keep random highly infectious people from infecting large numbers of people in one setting.

lostapathy 7y ago

Death takes time to accumulate. If everyone caught it in the last couple days, we don’t spect deaths yet under anyone’s model.

labster 7y ago
Hate to break it to you but most people’s mental models do not work this way, and would predict strong coupling between infection rate and death rate with zero to two days lag. Even if we know better, the experience model builds our expectations.

abiogenesis 7y ago

Yes, but if the number of deaths is 0 it might also mean that the sickness hasn't sufficiently progressed in any of the inmates, yet.

dmitriy_ko 7y ago

Right now around 2000 inmates are infected. If doubling time is 1 day in prison population then there were only 2 infected prisoners 10 days ago.

ajross 7y ago
Given the suspected incubation time of around 6 days, a doubling time of 2 days would correspond to an R0 of 8, which seems improbably high.
- clort 7y ago
  How many prisoners per cell though? This is not going to be anything like a normal transmission rate as these people do not have 'personal space'
- nradov 7y ago
  Why couldn't R0 be significantly higher than normal in a facility with extremely high density and poor hiegene?
- rdlecler1 7y ago
  There’s environmental dependencies. With something like the cold, Children can have an R0 that is 2x-8x higher (and some will have a lower R0), it’s really an average rate not an absolute.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  More recent CDC study: "Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)." https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
- fileeditview 7y ago
  R0 is not intrinsic to the virus but is heavily dependent on other factors. E.g. if you put 1 infected person in a crowded bus for a day long trip, the R0 within that group would probably be close to number of passengers.
Gibbon1 7y ago
Well there is the church in Washington where 45 out of 60 that attended a choir practice got infected in 2 hours. Homeless Shelter in San Francisco went from 5 cases to 70 in a couple of days. Could be you had one person that infected 200 fellow prisoners over a couple of days. After that you only need a week to infect everyone. Strikes me we probably I was well need to be really careful drawing naive inferences from epidemiological numbers. That said suspect limiting group contact sizes is really important because of stuff like this. In order to keep random highly infectious people from infecting large numbers of people in one setting.