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> It was a similar twitter, but doing it with just 1,000 people today would be a massive challenge. Is that true though? We know that instagram had less than 1

> It was a similar twitter, but doing it with just 1,000 people today would be a massive challenge. Is that true though? We know that instagram had less than 100 people running it before Facebook bought it for $19B. There's a tendency for successful companies to add headcounts and grow - and it's very hard to convince yourself not to - maybe just maybe they would be able to serve the whole world with about 50 people, on a smaller revenue but huge revenue/headcount.

jppope 7y ago
part of the way investors create valuation for companies is based on employees. Thats why its not a wild west of software contractors everywhere.
- jimbokun 7y ago
  That's like counting lines of code to create the valuation for software.
bananabreakfast 7y ago
Instagram was bought for $2B. You're thinking of WhatsApp.
- tsieling 7y ago
  $1B, but it landed at about $750M because of the FB shares that took a tumble just after.
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    Yeah but how much did those shares reach before hitting maturity?
TuringNYC 7y ago
Instagram and WhatsApp are anomalies. To try and find general tendencies, we should try and cite the typical story, not a three sigma exception case. Secondly, headcount is a darling of many HR systems. You might cite exceptions with Google or Stripe but your typical corporate environment will not put much effort into fairly evaluating career advancement (e.g., measuring impacts, outcomes, risk) for anyone. If you are sales or profit focused, lucky you. But outside of that, most HR systems will use simple metrics like "how many people report to you" or "how much budget do you control" to evaluate your promotions and pay. Some will even have literal formulas (e.g., you need 6 reports to go to Director; you need 6 Director reports to go to Executive Director; etc.) It is done because it is easy and convenient for HR. Unfortunately, obviously, people then try to game the system and over-hire. You might have to produce an "impacts report" at EOY but that is often HR-theater. Get down to "why" and you will find it came down to how many direct reports you had. Or how much budget you burned. If your incentive system rewards hiring over results, expect headcount to grow I urge those in governance positions to ensure their organizations have a real impacts assessment system to evaluate employee progress. There is no better way to kill motivation among workers than tell them that impact has no effect.
- Aperocky 7y ago
  Exactly, the typical story is one where politics invariably results in headcounts and not maintaining a small and clear cut vision. But the question is, can they do it without the bloat? My understanding is yes - and I can probably even tell you how.
  - TuringNYC 7y ago
    >> But the question is, can they do it without the bloat? My understanding is yes - and I can probably even tell you how. I dont mean to be snarky, but isn't the "how" sort of obvious (though hard to achieve)? You'd have to align reward with value generated per unit of risk and nothing else. The more value you generate (on a risk adjusted basis), the greater your reward and promotion. When companies grow larger, it becomes difficult for them to measure value generated, or too tedious, or politics overpowers governance. I'd be curious to hear your proposal on a fix.
    - Aperocky 7y ago
      I'm actually not talking about how to change the politics, but rather the technical aspect of so. I have no idea how to change the politics of hiring more, I can only hope if I was to ever start a company that I can try to make my own firm so.
- ignoramous 7y ago
  > Instagram and WhatsApp are anomalies. To try and find general tendencies, we should try and cite the typical story, not a three sigma exception case. The Instagram and WhatsApp example keeps coming up like clockwork in various contexts. A recent discussion that I recall: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22471355 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22471355 > If your incentive system rewards hiring over results, expect headcount to grow... Goodhart's Law in action? "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17320640 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17320640
- enitihas 7y ago
  In what company does HR have that kind of power to have any voice in who becomes director or executive director?

jppope 7y ago

part of the way investors create valuation for companies is based on employees. Thats why its not a wild west of software contractors everywhere.

jimbokun 7y ago
That's like counting lines of code to create the valuation for software.

bananabreakfast 7y ago

Instagram was bought for $2B. You're thinking of WhatsApp.

tsieling 7y ago
$1B, but it landed at about $750M because of the FB shares that took a tumble just after.
- chrisco255 7y ago
  Yeah but how much did those shares reach before hitting maturity?

TuringNYC 7y ago

Instagram and WhatsApp are anomalies. To try and find general tendencies, we should try and cite the typical story, not a three sigma exception case. Secondly, headcount is a darling of many HR systems. You might cite exceptions with Google or Stripe but your typical corporate environment will not put much effort into fairly evaluating career advancement (e.g., measuring impacts, outcomes, risk) for anyone. If you are sales or profit focused, lucky you. But outside of that, most HR systems will use simple metrics like "how many people report to you" or "how much budget do you control" to evaluate your promotions and pay. Some will even have literal formulas (e.g., you need 6 reports to go to Director; you need 6 Director reports to go to Executive Director; etc.) It is done because it is easy and convenient for HR. Unfortunately, obviously, people then try to game the system and over-hire. You might have to produce an "impacts report" at EOY but that is often HR-theater. Get down to "why" and you will find it came down to how many direct reports you had. Or how much budget you burned. If your incentive system rewards hiring over results, expect headcount to grow I urge those in governance positions to ensure their organizations have a real impacts assessment system to evaluate employee progress. There is no better way to kill motivation among workers than tell them that impact has no effect.

Aperocky 7y ago
Exactly, the typical story is one where politics invariably results in headcounts and not maintaining a small and clear cut vision. But the question is, can they do it without the bloat? My understanding is yes - and I can probably even tell you how.
- TuringNYC 7y ago
  >> But the question is, can they do it without the bloat? My understanding is yes - and I can probably even tell you how. I dont mean to be snarky, but isn't the "how" sort of obvious (though hard to achieve)? You'd have to align reward with value generated per unit of risk and nothing else. The more value you generate (on a risk adjusted basis), the greater your reward and promotion. When companies grow larger, it becomes difficult for them to measure value generated, or too tedious, or politics overpowers governance. I'd be curious to hear your proposal on a fix.
  - Aperocky 7y ago
    I'm actually not talking about how to change the politics, but rather the technical aspect of so. I have no idea how to change the politics of hiring more, I can only hope if I was to ever start a company that I can try to make my own firm so.
ignoramous 7y ago
> Instagram and WhatsApp are anomalies. To try and find general tendencies, we should try and cite the typical story, not a three sigma exception case. The Instagram and WhatsApp example keeps coming up like clockwork in various contexts. A recent discussion that I recall: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22471355 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22471355 > If your incentive system rewards hiring over results, expect headcount to grow... Goodhart's Law in action? "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17320640 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17320640
enitihas 7y ago
In what company does HR have that kind of power to have any voice in who becomes director or executive director?