10 ms·

I usually like patio11's writing style, but this is super verbose even by his standards and oddly evasive/defensive to boot. There's a number of important mess

I usually like patio11's writing style, but this is super verbose even by his standards and oddly evasive/defensive to boot. There's a number of important messages here, but they make up perhaps 10% of the content, and I still don't really fully understand the rationale behind the cloak and dagger "hash of report" business.

simonebrunozzi 7y ago
Perhaps that's on purpose. Perhaps he wants to avoid being sued, or similar things. Patrick has a ton of credibility and I would give him the benefit of the doubt here.
- kspacewalk2 7y ago
  Perhaps he wants to avoid being read.
- joebot123 7y ago
  The purpose of the overall evasiveness could be to prevent personal retaliation of some kind - that would be understandable. But why avoid mentioning the word Olympics and instead call it "the sporting event" repeatedly? Especially now when your connection to the white paper is public.
  - pavlov 7y ago
    Maybe because the virus and Olympics are both sensitive topics of national pride in a country that has turned increasingly nationalistic. Japan has a conviction rate of over 99%. If a prosecutor decides you're guilty of something, it's basically a done deal. You don't want to get on the wrong side of authorities in a country like that.
    - derefr 7y ago
      > Japan has a conviction rate of over 99%. If a prosecutor decides you're guilty of something, it's basically a done deal. I thought that was because the prosecutors are very conservative about choosing what cases to prosecute in the first place, only going after effective slam dunks.
      - nico_h 7y ago
        Long pre-trial detention in some rather uncomfortable situation and social isolation might help you obtain more "confessions" than in a different system.
  - jldugger 7y ago
    Probably because you could end up losing your visa and get sued by the Olympic Committee if you say 'Shinzo Abe is suppressing covid-19 research because of the Olympics.' Maybe even jail time.
    - aikinai 7y ago
      That's not how Japanese immigration or prosecution work. What law or immigration requirement would he be breaking? Also, tons of people have been saying that for months, both native and foreign.
      - fastball 7y ago
        Japan has a conviction rate of 99.9%. There is a difference between someone with a big internet presence and someone without one saying something.
        aikinai 7y ago
        The "big internet presence" is among readers of Hacker News. He's nowhere near the prominence of plenty of people in Japan making public, pessimistic predictions about the pandemic without acting like they're going to get persecuted for it.
        knolax 7y ago
        Never heard of this guy before. Seems like the typical exaggerating expat to me.
      - vkou 7y ago
        He may be afraid of non-official censure. He may be afraid of his employer getting publically crapped on for the bad behaviour of it's employee. (In this case, the bad behaviour is causing waves.)
      - tptacek 7y ago
        If you have direct knowledge of how Japanese official process works in practice, could you relate it along with this observation? Because a thing not in much doubt on HN is that Patrick does have some significant experience with it.
  - gpderetta 7y ago
    reverse SEO?
- aikinai 7y ago
  > Patrick has a ton of credibility Did? I think he just lost all of it with this arrogant stunt. Especially since he himself said, Either: 1) I am materially wrong about the most consequential thing I've had to have a view on in 15 years. You should probably degrade your estimate of my ability to think through complex problems. 2) We need a data point to counter "Nobody could possibly have seen this coming." He didn't predict anything "nobody could possibly have seen coming" and he was also mostly wrong, so...
  - tptacek 7y ago
    You're all over the thread with comments like these. If you were responding to Patrick directly on HN, you'd be quickly and rightly flagged for writing this way. That Patrick wrote this in a blog post and not in HN comments has insulated you from that effect, but it shouldn't, and I would guess won't for long. Patrick isn't infallible and may be wrong in a multitude of ways in this post (I haven't lived my whole adult life in Japan and wouldn't know). You should take your best shot at his arguments. But you need to do it civilly.
    - aikinai 7y ago
      I'm all over the thread with comments like these since the whole charade is ridiculous and is only getting undue attention here since Patrick is popular on Hacker News and very few commenters have familiarity with Japan, either as a whole or especially regarding the pandemic response. I've never met Patrick personally but also had a lot of respect for him from past writings; that's probably why I was so disappointed with what he did here. If I weren't knowledgeable about Japan, maybe I'd also just assume he's right because he feels like someone I know, but I do know better and that's why I'm commenting. My shots aren't at his arguments about pandemic modeling, but everything he's done surrounding that. As plenty of other comments here mention; everything is heavily self-promotional and smug. And I agree under normal circumstances the above comment would be flag-worthy, but he specifically staked his reputation on this with extreme language, so I mirrored that. So I apologize for the poor tone; but I think it's appropriate in the context of referencing that Tweet. A friend showed me the tweet last month and asked if it was about the pandemic in Japan. I said it can't possibly be that since everyone here sees it coming and knows the government is just dragging their feet. And I don't mean "everyone" in a smugly exclusive sense; all of the top comments on every article on the Japanese news sites were saying the same thing. So maybe there's novel work in the white paper; that's great, but my "best shots" are that it's ridiculous to claim that no one else saw this coming, this paper influenced Japan to shift their strategy, and being public is going to get him persecuted in Japan (those last two even seem contradictory). These would all be obvious to anyone living here, and make it seem like Patrick is using this information asymmetry and his existing reputation to blow this into something it's not in the eyes of a foreign community.
- OJFord 7y ago
  > This is a very different essay than my typical work. It may be judged to very different standards in very different quarters than usual. Please excuse my need to write more reservedly and participate less in subsequent commentary than I usually would. Some truths have social consequences, acknowledged or not.
dahdum 7y ago
I thought the same, like he's walking on eggshells? Maybe it's his assocation with Stripe or due to someone else in the working group? The memo doesn't read as particularly controversial nor did it recommend much concrete action. I left Japan in early March, by personal anecdote masks seemed pretty ubiquitious (and all public facing employees were wearing them), hotels were screening guest temperatures, warning signs everywhere, etc.. Time will tell, but I still think I'd have been better of staying there than returning to the US.
- nico_h 7y ago
  > The memo doesn't read as particularly controversial nor did it recommend much concrete action. Well it was pointing out that the current plan was B.S. and had already failed, and that the testing plan in place resisted falsification by preventing testing of unconnected / asymptomatic people. no biggie. The point of the memo was to gather and surface disparate information already public separately un-worrisome but that together might be able to be paid enough attention to for a (positive) governmental reaction. It was to force agencies to connect dots that the authors believe were not being connected. (Maybe it just wasn’t anybody’s job to connect them)
- pnathan 7y ago
  That is his m.o. when critiquing Japan. If you read between the lines to what he is really saying, I would think you would revise your opinion substantially.
philwelch 7y ago
What appears “evasive/defensive” to one culture may appear merely polite to another culture. As always I would presume good faith here.
- davidw 7y ago
  Agreed - but it did leave me a bit ... curious, if nothing else.
SkyMarshal 7y ago
> I still don't really fully understand the rationale behind the cloak and dagger "hash of report" business. I didn’t read every word of it but got the sense there were political and/or Japanese cultural sensitivities why he didn’t initially feel comfortable with a full public, attributed release.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  I think you're being a bit too accommodating. McKenzie does have a flair for the dramatic; he did the same thing with Tether where there really was no reason he couldn't just say what he thought when he thought it. At the same time, yeah, it seems very plausible that a white guy in Japan announcing the Japanese pandemic response is run by fools would face blowback for it.
  - SkyMarshal 7y ago
    >At the same time, yeah, it seems very plausible that a white guy in Japan announcing the Japanese pandemic response is run by fools would face blowback for it. Haha, yeah pretty much that. And any blowback may also have been directed at his employer, Stripe. So there was certainly cause for caution. That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previous similar ones was much of a leap of insight, and the article does seem a little too self-congratulatory over that. Having that realization back in January is evidence of foresight, but late March not so much. But maybe the situation was different in Japan and merits it, dunno.
    - barry-cotter 7y ago
      > That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previous similar ones was much of a leap of insight, and the article does seem a little too self-congratulatory over that. Having that realization back in January is evidence of foresight, but late March not so much. If this had been obvious to the Japanese authorities in late March they would have declared a nationwide state of emergency in late March, not late April. They would have issued stay at home orders for almost everyone 25 days ago, not five days ago. Being right when the government is wrong, it being wrong will cost lives and trying to get them to save those lives is not trivial. The doubling time of this virus is well under ten days. If lockdown had begun on the date this memo was published there would be under a quarter as many cases as there are now.

simonebrunozzi 7y ago

Perhaps that's on purpose. Perhaps he wants to avoid being sued, or similar things. Patrick has a ton of credibility and I would give him the benefit of the doubt here.

kspacewalk2 7y ago
Perhaps he wants to avoid being read.
joebot123 7y ago
The purpose of the overall evasiveness could be to prevent personal retaliation of some kind - that would be understandable. But why avoid mentioning the word Olympics and instead call it "the sporting event" repeatedly? Especially now when your connection to the white paper is public.
- pavlov 7y ago
  Maybe because the virus and Olympics are both sensitive topics of national pride in a country that has turned increasingly nationalistic. Japan has a conviction rate of over 99%. If a prosecutor decides you're guilty of something, it's basically a done deal. You don't want to get on the wrong side of authorities in a country like that.
  - derefr 7y ago
    > Japan has a conviction rate of over 99%. If a prosecutor decides you're guilty of something, it's basically a done deal. I thought that was because the prosecutors are very conservative about choosing what cases to prosecute in the first place, only going after effective slam dunks.
    - nico_h 7y ago
      Long pre-trial detention in some rather uncomfortable situation and social isolation might help you obtain more "confessions" than in a different system.
- jldugger 7y ago
  Probably because you could end up losing your visa and get sued by the Olympic Committee if you say 'Shinzo Abe is suppressing covid-19 research because of the Olympics.' Maybe even jail time.
  - aikinai 7y ago
    That's not how Japanese immigration or prosecution work. What law or immigration requirement would he be breaking? Also, tons of people have been saying that for months, both native and foreign.
    - fastball 7y ago
      Japan has a conviction rate of 99.9%. There is a difference between someone with a big internet presence and someone without one saying something.
      - aikinai 7y ago
        The "big internet presence" is among readers of Hacker News. He's nowhere near the prominence of plenty of people in Japan making public, pessimistic predictions about the pandemic without acting like they're going to get persecuted for it.
        knolax 7y ago
        Never heard of this guy before. Seems like the typical exaggerating expat to me.
    - vkou 7y ago
      He may be afraid of non-official censure. He may be afraid of his employer getting publically crapped on for the bad behaviour of it's employee. (In this case, the bad behaviour is causing waves.)
    - tptacek 7y ago
      If you have direct knowledge of how Japanese official process works in practice, could you relate it along with this observation? Because a thing not in much doubt on HN is that Patrick does have some significant experience with it.
- gpderetta 7y ago
  reverse SEO?
aikinai 7y ago
> Patrick has a ton of credibility Did? I think he just lost all of it with this arrogant stunt. Especially since he himself said, Either: 1) I am materially wrong about the most consequential thing I've had to have a view on in 15 years. You should probably degrade your estimate of my ability to think through complex problems. 2) We need a data point to counter "Nobody could possibly have seen this coming." He didn't predict anything "nobody could possibly have seen coming" and he was also mostly wrong, so...
- tptacek 7y ago
  You're all over the thread with comments like these. If you were responding to Patrick directly on HN, you'd be quickly and rightly flagged for writing this way. That Patrick wrote this in a blog post and not in HN comments has insulated you from that effect, but it shouldn't, and I would guess won't for long. Patrick isn't infallible and may be wrong in a multitude of ways in this post (I haven't lived my whole adult life in Japan and wouldn't know). You should take your best shot at his arguments. But you need to do it civilly.
  - aikinai 7y ago
    I'm all over the thread with comments like these since the whole charade is ridiculous and is only getting undue attention here since Patrick is popular on Hacker News and very few commenters have familiarity with Japan, either as a whole or especially regarding the pandemic response. I've never met Patrick personally but also had a lot of respect for him from past writings; that's probably why I was so disappointed with what he did here. If I weren't knowledgeable about Japan, maybe I'd also just assume he's right because he feels like someone I know, but I do know better and that's why I'm commenting. My shots aren't at his arguments about pandemic modeling, but everything he's done surrounding that. As plenty of other comments here mention; everything is heavily self-promotional and smug. And I agree under normal circumstances the above comment would be flag-worthy, but he specifically staked his reputation on this with extreme language, so I mirrored that. So I apologize for the poor tone; but I think it's appropriate in the context of referencing that Tweet. A friend showed me the tweet last month and asked if it was about the pandemic in Japan. I said it can't possibly be that since everyone here sees it coming and knows the government is just dragging their feet. And I don't mean "everyone" in a smugly exclusive sense; all of the top comments on every article on the Japanese news sites were saying the same thing. So maybe there's novel work in the white paper; that's great, but my "best shots" are that it's ridiculous to claim that no one else saw this coming, this paper influenced Japan to shift their strategy, and being public is going to get him persecuted in Japan (those last two even seem contradictory). These would all be obvious to anyone living here, and make it seem like Patrick is using this information asymmetry and his existing reputation to blow this into something it's not in the eyes of a foreign community.
OJFord 7y ago
> This is a very different essay than my typical work. It may be judged to very different standards in very different quarters than usual. Please excuse my need to write more reservedly and participate less in subsequent commentary than I usually would. Some truths have social consequences, acknowledged or not.

dahdum 7y ago

I thought the same, like he's walking on eggshells? Maybe it's his assocation with Stripe or due to someone else in the working group? The memo doesn't read as particularly controversial nor did it recommend much concrete action. I left Japan in early March, by personal anecdote masks seemed pretty ubiquitious (and all public facing employees were wearing them), hotels were screening guest temperatures, warning signs everywhere, etc.. Time will tell, but I still think I'd have been better of staying there than returning to the US.

nico_h 7y ago
> The memo doesn't read as particularly controversial nor did it recommend much concrete action. Well it was pointing out that the current plan was B.S. and had already failed, and that the testing plan in place resisted falsification by preventing testing of unconnected / asymptomatic people. no biggie. The point of the memo was to gather and surface disparate information already public separately un-worrisome but that together might be able to be paid enough attention to for a (positive) governmental reaction. It was to force agencies to connect dots that the authors believe were not being connected. (Maybe it just wasn’t anybody’s job to connect them)
pnathan 7y ago
That is his m.o. when critiquing Japan. If you read between the lines to what he is really saying, I would think you would revise your opinion substantially.

philwelch 7y ago

What appears “evasive/defensive” to one culture may appear merely polite to another culture. As always I would presume good faith here.

davidw 7y ago
Agreed - but it did leave me a bit ... curious, if nothing else.

SkyMarshal 7y ago

> I still don't really fully understand the rationale behind the cloak and dagger "hash of report" business. I didn’t read every word of it but got the sense there were political and/or Japanese cultural sensitivities why he didn’t initially feel comfortable with a full public, attributed release.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
I think you're being a bit too accommodating. McKenzie does have a flair for the dramatic; he did the same thing with Tether where there really was no reason he couldn't just say what he thought when he thought it. At the same time, yeah, it seems very plausible that a white guy in Japan announcing the Japanese pandemic response is run by fools would face blowback for it.
- SkyMarshal 7y ago
  >At the same time, yeah, it seems very plausible that a white guy in Japan announcing the Japanese pandemic response is run by fools would face blowback for it. Haha, yeah pretty much that. And any blowback may also have been directed at his employer, Stripe. So there was certainly cause for caution. That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previous similar ones was much of a leap of insight, and the article does seem a little too self-congratulatory over that. Having that realization back in January is evidence of foresight, but late March not so much. But maybe the situation was different in Japan and merits it, dunno.
  - barry-cotter 7y ago
    > That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previous similar ones was much of a leap of insight, and the article does seem a little too self-congratulatory over that. Having that realization back in January is evidence of foresight, but late March not so much. If this had been obvious to the Japanese authorities in late March they would have declared a nationwide state of emergency in late March, not late April. They would have issued stay at home orders for almost everyone 25 days ago, not five days ago. Being right when the government is wrong, it being wrong will cost lives and trying to get them to save those lives is not trivial. The doubling time of this virus is well under ten days. If lockdown had begun on the date this memo was published there would be under a quarter as many cases as there are now.