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Herd immunity from this coronavirus remains an unproven hypothesis, and most people claim it will only last 6-24 months. Is there any reason to believe we get c

• aaron695 7y ago
  > and most people claim it will only last 6-24 months. It's best guessed at being several years. But 6-24 months is very possible but it's not really relevant to an article claiming the East has beaten the West, 6 months would redefine everything. > Is there any reason to believe we get can it through 60-80% of our society within 12 months? It's a good question, let me check the "flatten the curve" graphs that are everywhere that people are using to shift policy. Jokes aside the Imperial College report put it at ~4 months untouched for instance. So fully reopen with social distancing measures like masks, then 12 months seems possible.
• MarkusQ 7y ago
  > Is there any reason to believe we get can it through 60-80% of our society within 12 months? Exponential growth. Suppose the doubling time is 10 days (it's probably less) and there is one person loose who has it (there are probably more). One year would be 35 doublings (actually, slightly more) which would be enough time for 2^35 = 34 billion people to get it. Since this is well over four times the present world population, it's not unreasonable to suppose 60-80% of the people will have had it by then.