4 ms·

That’s actually not true. We are talking 0.2-0.3% lethality which is still a lot but it will bellow 250k deaths even if we are back to full normal right now. C

That’s actually not true. We are talking 0.2-0.3% lethality which is still a lot but it will bellow 250k deaths even if we are back to full normal right now. Current estimations are 60-70k deaths from it but the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19.

camgunz 7y ago
I think those numbers are way low. Based on demographic numbers: Older than 85: 650k deaths 65-84: 150k 55-65: 400k I don't think everyone will be infected, but lets say it's half. That's 600k. Let's say it's 10%. That's 120k. By any measure, the loss of life is... just breathtaking. But either way, parent was taking about letting everyone get it to build herd immunity, so that's where "everyone gets it" is coming from. https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html > the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19 This had been circling the internet a little, but I would caution against extrapolating an uptick in suicides into doubling by the end of the year. There are no doubt consequences to sheltering in place, domestic abuse is a concern as well for example. But this is the best we've got.
kelnos 7y ago
Do you have citations to back up those numbers? I've been looking for things to read that try to quantify the potential harm of shelter-in-place orders, but haven't found much that go anywhere beyond wild guesses.
- camgunz 7y ago
  Yeah! Well, not the suicides. The stuff I found was like "9 suicides in Tennessee" (which is tragic but not indicative) and a lot of coverage of Trump's lies about it. But COVID-19 I used: https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html and https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the... Feel free to check my math, it's late and I did some pretty sketchy rounding.
DanBC 7y ago
> the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k There's no evidence that suicides are doubling.

camgunz 7y ago

I think those numbers are way low. Based on demographic numbers: Older than 85: 650k deaths 65-84: 150k 55-65: 400k I don't think everyone will be infected, but lets say it's half. That's 600k. Let's say it's 10%. That's 120k. By any measure, the loss of life is... just breathtaking. But either way, parent was taking about letting everyone get it to build herd immunity, so that's where "everyone gets it" is coming from. https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html > the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19 This had been circling the internet a little, but I would caution against extrapolating an uptick in suicides into doubling by the end of the year. There are no doubt consequences to sheltering in place, domestic abuse is a concern as well for example. But this is the best we've got.

kelnos 7y ago

Do you have citations to back up those numbers? I've been looking for things to read that try to quantify the potential harm of shelter-in-place orders, but haven't found much that go anywhere beyond wild guesses.

camgunz 7y ago
Yeah! Well, not the suicides. The stuff I found was like "9 suicides in Tennessee" (which is tragic but not indicative) and a lot of coverage of Trump's lies about it. But COVID-19 I used: https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html and https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the... Feel free to check my math, it's late and I did some pretty sketchy rounding.

DanBC 7y ago

> the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k There's no evidence that suicides are doubling.